Small Craft Advisory 32, NWS Juneau, AK

975 
FZAK51 PAJK 140048
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-141815-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge persists over BC through Wednesday night. A storm force
low arrives in the eastern gulf on Thursday. A gale force low
moves into the gulf on Friday. 

$$

PKZ011-141815-
Glacier Bay-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-141815-
Northern Lynn Canal-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming N 15 late. Gusts to 35 kt in the
evening. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft becoming 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft late. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-141815-
Southern Lynn Canal-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N late. Gusts to 40 kt in the
evening. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-141815-
Icy Strait-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-141815-
Cross Sound-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-141815-
Stephens Passage-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-141815-
Northern Chatham Strait-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming S late. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-141815-
Southern Chatham Strait-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain late. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 14 ft building to 19 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 20 
ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 20 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 18 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-141815-
Frederick Sound-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-141815-
Sumner Strait-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 6
ft. 
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 
12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
11 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-141815-
Clarence Strait-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. Rain 
late.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building
to 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
240 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...Storm force low moved into and then over the AK
Panhandle this morning through the afternoon. High winds developed
as the low tracked northward with some locations reaching gusts
of over 60 mph. In addition to the high winds heavy rain
developed with 6 hour rain fall amounts upwards of 0.50 inches.
Since the low moved overland it lost much of its energy and as
seen in satellite imagery showing rapid dissipation. While a
majority of precip fell as rain, cooler air aloft began to mix
down resulting in some sleet and snow mixed in with the rain. At
this time, besides higher elevations, only minimal accumulation
likely. High pressure builds over the eastern gulf and panhandle
as the low exits to the north late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Winds drop off at this time with southerly winds in the 10 to 20
kt range. Showers will become scattered and some clear breaks
might develop due to instability. However with onshore flow
producing influx of moisture kept mostly cloudy skies. Colder air
continues to moves in so might see some of the lingering showers
as snow, but once again no significant accumulations.

For Thursday another strong system moves into the region with an
85 kt low level jet. At least storm force winds along the coastal
waters with small craft to gale force winds over inner channels.
Coastal land areas might develop high winds with gusts to 60 mph
if a wave, indicated by GFS, develops along the front. Still a
fair amount of model agreement on details but ensembles are
aligned for the higher than normal winds and rainfall. Any snow
due to previous cooler temps should change to all rain as strong
southerly winds develop. For higher elevations snow fall
accumulation for Thursday into Friday upwards of 10 to 18 inches
is possible, but once again with model spread low confidence in
exact amounts.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday night/...The long range
forecast period begins with an upper low which will move north out
of the N Pacific and into the western central Gulf by Friday
morning. As this happens, an upper ridge will continue to build
and then be displaced to the east into Canada as a trough axis
pivots north about the low. The upper low will retrograde
northwest and become absorbed in the upper flow as large scale
onshore flow dominates the eastern Gulf Friday night heading into
Saturday. This same pattern is expected to repeat itself through
the next week. Another upper low approaches the central Gulf from
the southwest on Saturday with southwest flow setting up Sunday
as this system becomes absorbed in the main upper flow. Another
system on its heels for Monday follows nearly the same track as
the parade of storms continues.

At the surface, a low heads towards Kodiak Island while an
associated storm force front pushes into the Panhandle. The parade
of storm systems continue through early next week with another
strong front approaching the region Saturday afternoon and then
another one Monday morning. Expect an increase in winds in the
gulf and through the Inner Channels as each front approaches.
Currently, the Thursday front looks to be the strongest of the
three with an associated 85 kt low level jet barreling into the
Panhandle. The high wind potential for the outer coast will need
to be monitored closely for Thursday with winds this strong just
above the surface.

The sensible weather pattern will continue to be wet, as is
typical for this time of the year, with multiple fronts and waves
bringing plenty of precipitation. The general onshore pattern will
provide for continued warmer (relatively speaking) air such that
the precip type will be predominantly rain for lower elevations
except the higher elevations along the Haines and Klondike
Highways.

Overall model agreement is good for the long term regarding the
general weather pattern. However, there are disagreements between
models regarding the finer details of the forecast, which is to
be expected this far out. Used a blend of EC/Canadian for winds
and timing of the front on Thursday, which brings it in 6 hours
faster than the GFS. Trended towards WPC for the latter part of
the long term, which heavily used the EC and EC ensembles. Despite
model differences, there is high confidence that this wet and
warmer pattern will continue into early next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ026-027.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ022.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind Tuesday afternoon for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-051>053.

&&

EAL/CM

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