Small Craft Advisory 319, NWS Juneau, AK

664 
FZAK52 PAJK 291154
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-300600-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Gulf.  

$$

PKZ041-300600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-300600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-300600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-300600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-300600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

992 
FZAK52 PAJK 292340
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-301745-
340 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf will continue to be the
dominant weather feature for the region through the week. 

$$

PKZ041-301745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
340 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-301745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
340 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-301745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
340 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-301745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
340 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-301745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
340 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

723 
FZAK52 PAJK 301208
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-010615-
408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf persists as low pressure
remains across western Canada through Thu.  

$$

PKZ041-010615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-010615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-010615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-010615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-010615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
244 PM AKDT Mon Jun 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...There are signs that our record breaking warm
temperatures will be coming to an end in the short-term period,
although likely still at or above normal. Minimum temperatures in
particular have been very warm. Ketchinkan tied the high
temperature record on Sunday and (so far Monday too), but more
impressively was the record warm minimum temperature of 62F since
that is their NORMAL high.

This is all caused by an anomonously strong upper level high
pressure over the Pacific NW in conjunction with surface high
pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. The upper level high is pumping up
the hot air with a southerly jet directed at the panhandle while the
surface high is causing NWLY flow which is usually a dry one for us.
The difference between today and tomorrow is that the temperatures
aloft will be 5-8 degrees celcius cooler. Then tomorrow evening, an
upper level trough will track SW to NE across the eastern gulf,
shifting the flow as it passes. Vorticity with the trough will also
cause lift as it moves through. So any marine layer clouds that form
under the gulf surface ridge could have some drizzle or light rain
rung out by that little bit of extra lift when the trough passes
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Another upper level trough looks to move out of interior Alaska
Wednesday afternoon, then track over Yakutat/northern inner channels
then southeastward across the panhandle through the night. Again,
vorticity with this feature could cause some showers, primarily if
clouds are already around, or convection if  there's enough surface
heating ahead of it. Either way, it would be cause for a bit more
clouds and another couple degrees cooler on Wednesday.

Sea breezes will continue to be strongest for places favored with W-
NW directions, such as Ketchikan and Icy Strait. But all places near
the water will continue to see a shift to their typical afternoon
sea breeze direction. With a developing marine layer over the gulf,
the temperature difference will be even greater, causing a stronger
W-NW wind, especially at the leading edge of the clouds.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Monday / Upper level blocking
ridge over the western US and Canada with the very warm air mass
associated with it will start weakening and moving slowly
eastward. A weak trough aloft will move the panhandle Tuesday
night.

A weak ridge will move east across the gulf Thursday as a deep low
along central Aleutians moves to the Bristol Bay area with a
trough arc off the low over the gulf Saturday. A minor change from
earlier thinking is that the thought is that the ridge along the
panhandle will hold out longer so have adjusted the timing of the
incoming front back some. This trough will be moving through the
panhandle starting Sunday and finish Monday I suspect leaving a
more zonal onshore flow that is favorable for continued shower
activity. Which means the tail end of the upcoming Holiday
weekend could be cloudy and wet.

The slow down on movement of the blocking ridge, prompted a nudge
of the Wednesday high temperature up a few degrees more some
locations and fair jump for the Hyder region. Temps for next week
across the panhandle shouldn't be as warm but still looks like 60s
to around 70 is plausible for the panhandle. This is still above
normal for this time of the year.

Likely the biggest concern especially over the gulf with a large
surface high in place, will be the potential for a marine layer
to form and start moving about the gulf coast areas. This will
play havoc with temperatures, and sky for the following week.
Confidence is average for the extended time frame.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The extreme temperatures aloft, including 77F at
800ft recorded by the Annette sounding at 12 UTC (4AM) this
morning, are causing considerable snow melt into our larger river
basins. See the latest statements for specifics on each river
system.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Areal Flood Advisory until 2 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ026.
     Areal Flood Warning until 2 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ025.
     Areal Flood Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ019.
     Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-041>043.

&&

Ferrin/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
308 PM AKDT MON JUN 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLOOD            3 SW MOSQUITO LAKE      59.41N 136.10W
06/27/2021                   HAINES             AK   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ALONG PORCUPINE ROAD.

&&

CM