Small Craft Advisory 307, NWS Juneau, AK

480 
FZAK51 PAJK 211730 AAB
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-220315-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge extending northeast from the EASTPAC High  will persist
over the southern Panhandle on Monday, the shift  west slightly
while weakening on Tuesday. Outlook. The ridge will  sharpen up
and shift east on Tuesday night into Wednesday as a  gale force
low enters the western Gulf.  

$$

PKZ011-220315-
Glacier Bay-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-220315-
Northern Lynn Canal-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft late.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind increasing to 15 kt in the morning. Seas building
to 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-220315-
Southern Lynn Canal-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt late. Seas building to 3 
ft late.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-220315-
Icy Strait-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain early in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...Variable winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-220315-
Cross Sound-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-220315-
Stephens Passage-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt overnight. Seas building
to 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-220315-
Northern Chatham Strait-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the evening. Seas
3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-220315-
Southern Chatham Strait-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt late evening. Seas 3
ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 6
ft.
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.WED...Light winds becoming SE and increasing to 20 kt in the
evening. Seas building to 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-220315-
Frederick Sound-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming SE and increasing to 20 kt late. Seas
building to 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-220315-
Sumner Strait-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the morning. Seas 
building to 3 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind increasing to 20 kt late. Seas building to 4 ft
late.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-220315-
Clarence Strait-
930 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or 
less. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE and increasing to 20 kt late. 
Seas building to 4 ft late.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

229 
FZAK51 PAJK 212340
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-221615-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge over the southern Panhandle will persist through Wed. A
gale force front will move into the eastern gulf from the SW Wed 
and into the Panhandle Wed night. 

$$

PKZ011-221615-
Glacier Bay-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft
subsiding. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-221615-
Northern Lynn Canal-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing late. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind increasing to 20 kt Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-221615-
Southern Lynn Canal-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-221615-
Icy Strait-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-221615-
Cross Sound-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-221615-
Stephens Passage-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-221615-
Northern Chatham Strait-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing late. Seas 3 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-221615-
Southern Chatham Strait-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...S wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near 
ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft,
except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-221615-
Frederick Sound-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-221615-
Sumner Strait-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light.
Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-221615-
Clarence Strait-
340 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
639 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...A low over the far northern Gulf will continue to
rotate precipitation over Southeast Alaska. Rain overnight has
diminished and as of early this morning, only Yakutat, Juneau, and
Wrangell were still reporting. Forecast thinking for this short
term period is that rain today will be spotty and light before
transitioning to showers this afternoon with one exception.
Heavier precipitation will be located over the northeast Gulf
Coast, but even there, shower activity tonight will become quite
light. By tomorrow afternoon, most locations should be dry and
remain so through late Tuesday evening, but still under mostly
cloudy to overcast skies. A chance of rain will return to the
central and southern Panhandle (mostly along the outer coast) late
Tuesday night. Temperatures today and Tuesday will be lackluster
and range from the upper 50s to lower 60s...this also being a
result of the cloud cover. Overnight lows will only be getting
down to the upper 40s.

Marine winds over the eastern Gulf will be onshore at 15 kts early
on, then diminish overnight. On Tuesday afternoon, winds will form
up out of the southeast and increase to 20 to 25 kts in advance of
the next front. On the inside, impactful winds will be limited to
Lynn canal. There southerly winds of 20 kts today will diminish
Monday night as a ridge currently over the Panhandle will shift
west and weaken Inner channel winds for Tuesday and Tuesday night
are expected to be 10 kts or less.

Little change to this short term forecast, as the previous
forecast is remaining on track nicely. Modifications basically
limited to Gulf winds and tweaks to PoP/QPF. Overall forecast
confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through next Monday/...The mid-week event
continues to provide the focus for our mid-range forecast. An
unseasonably deep upper low finds anchor in the western gulf and
Bristol Bay region midweek and aims a deep swath of moisture
towards Southeast Alaska. Ensembles all present a time period from
06Z Thu to roughly 12Z Fri when integrated vapor transport is
strongest (between 500 and 750 kg/m/s). This increases the
concerns from 24 hours ago as consensus then held that this
atmospheric river would be intense, yes, but more brief in
duration. Now the majority of ensemble members point to a greater
duration. From Wednesday morning through Friday morning, 48 hour
rainfall amounts look to fall in the 2 to 4 inch range from
Baranof Island including Sitka, northwest to Pelican and Elfin
Cove and then east to Gustavus and Juneau. Three to five inches
could drop over the Yakutat and the northeast Gulf Coast. Most
other areas of the Panhandle still could receive 1 to 2 inches. A
special weather statement has been posted for heavy rain and
significant rises for area rivers. While flooding is not
anticipated, we will continue to coordinate with RFC on any
foreseeable impacts. Fortunately, this mid-week event will be
somewhat mitigated by a break in the weather on Tuesday that will
allow saturated ground a period of recovery.

Winds will be another concern as we did boost the southeast winds
to 40 kt for the outside waters with the initial front Wednesday
night. Likewise we did begin raising the Inner Channels to 15 to
20 kt. Small craft advisories are definitely a possibility, but
where/when and how strong are not completely known at this point.
Breezy conditions likely will need expanded from the coast into
communities on the inside.

Furthermore, we lowered high temperatures on both Wednesday and
Thursday to keep temperatures in the 50s all day during the heavy
rain. Looking onward into the weekend, there are still signs of a
building ridge across the eastern gulf with an ensemble-indicated
500-mb ridge axis inching westward with successive model runs.
This still means potentially warmer and drier weather just in time
for next weekend.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ043.

&&

Fritsch/JWA

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