Small Craft Advisory 299, NWS Juneau, AK

859 
FZAK51 PAJK 041522 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
722 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-050230-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low pressure system over the southeast Gulf Friday  morning
will slowly weaken and drift through Dixon Entrance  by Saturday
morning. A weak ridge will build over the eastern  Gulf behind
the low through Saturday.  

$$

PKZ011-050230-
Glacier Bay-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-050230-
Northern Lynn Canal-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the
afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-050230-
Southern Lynn Canal-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft
or less. Showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-050230-
Icy Strait-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-050230-
Cross Sound-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-050230-
Stephens Passage-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft early in the morning then 2 ft or less. Showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-050230-
Northern Chatham Strait-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. Showers early in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-050230-
Southern Chatham Strait-
722 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft, 
except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 9 ft. Showers.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-050230-
Frederick Sound-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.SAT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-050230-
Sumner Strait-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft, 
except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-050230-
Clarence Strait-
435 AM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft except 10 ft near ocean 
entrances. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
205 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing a quasi
stationary weakening low over the NE Gulf and a second low
centered over the south-western AK Gulf continuing to track
eastward. Associated frontal and pre frontal bands have moved over
the AK Gulf and Panhandle continuing the trend of wet weather for
the region. Rainfall rates along with breaks in cloud cover,
especially over the northern panhandle, have let up a bit with the
past 6 hour amounts closer to 0.1 inches with a few locations at
0.4 to 0.5 inches. 850 mb winds have a more E to SE flow enhancing
these breaks. Winds on the other hand picked up for the central
and northern areas as the fronts crossed over the area with
sustained winds nearing 20 mph and gusts upwards of 30 to 35 mph.

As the SW Gulf low continues to track east showers over the
northern and central panhandle will begin to diminish due to
offshore flow while a band of heavy showers and strong winds will
move over the southern panhandle. However for the central and
northern areas any break in rain showers may be short lived as a
wave developing over northern British Columbia and Yukon has
potential to bring in more showers as it moves westward Saturday.
Meanwhile the low over the southern panhandle expected to weaken
by this time. Timing uncertain on this as the GFS keeps the low
intact longer. What does look more certain is a diminishing trend
in winds Saturday and through the weekend. Breaks in the clouds
Friday will allow for more diurnal heating and thus more
instability. Temperatures are predicted to be near- normal across
the northern panhandle, but remain below normal for the southern
portions as a result of continued rainfall.

Utilized a blend of NAM and Canadian with previous forecast
grids. Uncertainty in showers over the central and norther areas
as models limited any breaks but there were some obvious breaks
in cloud cover on satellite imagery. Forecast confidence is
average.

.LONG TERM.../ Saturday to Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday / Friday
starts with the complex multi-center low aloft over the western
half of the state and the Gulf of Alaska. The operational models
and WPC guidance have generally good agreement into Monday. After
then, the long range have some larger differences in the upper
level pattern for start of the week. latest model runs have this
low center bit further to the north.

An upper low over the southern panhandle holds in place over the
weekend as one further west moves south of the one towards
Vancouver Island. This will pull some of the energy over the
panhandle and bring the low south to Haida Gwaii by Sunday
afternoon. Weaker flow over the panhandle will continue until the
feature near the Bering Straits dives southeast across the state
and gulf of Alaska. The models have some different timing; the
WPC which we leaned towards for next week was favoring the ECMWF
from earlier in the day.

At the surface the low Saturday approaches the southern panhandle
and then moves towards Dixon Entrance. Rain with this system
seems to want to be over the southern half of the panhandle. The
intensity of associated low and mid level lows will impact the
northern edge of the rain, with early thinking that it will tend
to stay over southern half. Sunday and into Monday, models
hinting that an easterly wave may try to cross over the coast
mountains somewhere near Juneau or just south of it.

Start of next week looks like it will be either dry or on the
lighter side for accumulations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Above rainfall normal resulted elevated rivers and
small streams are. Jordan Creek reached minor flood stage while Auke
Lake, Montana Creek and Taku River in Juneau and the Stikine
River near Wrangell were hovering around bankfull and will
continue to be monitored. Additional rain amounts over the
northern half expected to be slightly lower than previously
forecast with amount closer to 0.5 inches tonight. The decrease in
rainfall across the north on Friday will allow those basins to
fall. Precipitation will increase over the southern panhandle
into Friday. Expecting 0.75" to 2" for the southern third of the
panhandle tonight into Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Areal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ025.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-041>043-051.

&&

PRB/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau