Small Craft Advisory 292, NWS Juneau, AK

319 
FZAK51 PAJK 012041 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-020215-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low south of the Kenai will move slowly to the central Gulf by
late Wednesday while rotating numerous bands of precipitation
over the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska. Outlook. A second
low will enter the southern Gulf from the west Thursday night,
maintaining active weather through the remainder of the week.  

$$

PKZ011-020215-
Glacier Bay-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the morning then
becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
morning then subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain early in 
the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-020215-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building
to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-020215-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.
Rain.
.WED...S wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building
to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-020215-
Icy Strait-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-020215-
Cross Sound-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain late. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-020215-
Stephens Passage-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming light in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or 
less. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-020215-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming light in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft 
early in the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.
Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-020215-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft early in the morning then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, 
seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt overnight. Seas building to
3 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. Showers.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-020215-
Frederick Sound-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt early in the morning becoming light. Seas 
3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.WED...S wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building
to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-020215-
Sumner Strait-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 
ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-020215-
Clarence Strait-
1240 PM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt late. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
241 PM AKDT Mon May 31 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wed night/ Rather wet day across the
panhandle today. We have had one short wave move through this
morning dropping up to .5 to 1 inches of rain across several
areas (some isolated areas had up to 1.5 inches) and bringing some
breezy conditions. A second short wave is moving through the
southern panhandle right now dropping more moderate to heavy rain
and more wind (up to 30 kt in Clarence Strait). This second wave
is expected to spread rainfall over the rest of the panhandle this
evening. IVT guidance is still showing moderate values over the
panhandle this evening with IWV values around 1 to 1.2 inches.
This will bring another 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall through late
this evening for many areas. Area rivers and streams are still
well within their banks, but several are seeing higher flow rates
this afternoon. No flooding is expected at this time, though high
flow will be observed in many basins, especially the smaller
ones, overnight (Jordan Creek and Montana Creek specifically expected
to get near bankfull overnight).

Into Tue and Wed, another drier period looks to be in the works
for Tue afternoon and evening for the northern panhandle as
offshore flow ahead of the next short wave dries things out. It
will not last as rain is expected to spread northward into the
area by late Tue night. Southern panhandle will not see much of a
break between the current wave and the next so rain is expected
to continue mostly uninterrupted there through Tue night.
Expected rainfall will be near 1.5 inches in the southern
panhandle with significantly lesser amounts farther north through
Wed morning. Continued S to SW onshore flow will keep showers
around the area, especially southward facing slopes, through Wed
night, though rainfall amounts are not expected to be as heavy.

As for winds, highest winds currently are in the southern
panhandle where some gusts to 30 kt are being observed at
Hydaburg. Winds will spread northward as the short wave over the
south moves north through the evening. Most places should see
only 20 kt at most out of this but northern Lynn Canal may end up
with 25 kt later tonight. For Tue onward winds will fluctuate
between 10 and 20 kt with the higher winds observed with the
passage of various short waves, especially for the south on Tue
night.

Overall forecast confidence is average to above average with
timing of various short waves and their effects being the most
uncertain. Generally wet and breezy conditions being the norm
rather then the exception over the next few days.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...As of 9PM Sun...Period
begins with a ensemble consensus of a parent low pressure system
out in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. This continued solution
continues the minimal change to the wet weather pattern across
the area of responsibility through the long term.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement through
late in week about keeping the upper level low over the panhandle
through the week the bulk of the weekend with systems continuing
to bring precip to the region.

By the weekend ensemble guidance start to push the low pressure
system off to the east, and bring in a quieter zonal flow pattern.
This will still allow for some shower activity to continue to
impact the region, with a slight decrease in precipitation amounts
slightly. Overall, only minimal changes to the inherited forecast
in the long term and confidence in wet pattern persisting through
most of the weekend remains above average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043-051>053.

&&

EAL/Suk

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau