Small Craft Advisory 273, NWS Juneau, AK

131 
FZAK52 PAJK 182339
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKDT Tue May 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-191745-
339 PM AKDT Tue May 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge will persist over the eastern gulf through Thursday. 
Outlook. A weather front will move into the eastern gulf by Friday
morning and through the panhandle Friday night. 

$$

PKZ041-191745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
339 PM AKDT Tue May 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing late. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-191745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
339 PM AKDT Tue May 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Higher gusts near southern ends Baranof
and Kruzof Islands in the evening. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-191745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
339 PM AKDT Tue May 18 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Higher gusts near Cape Spencer. Seas 7 
ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-191745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
339 PM AKDT Tue May 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-191745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
339 PM AKDT Tue May 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

304 
FZAK52 PAJK 191209
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
409 AM AKDT Wed May 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-200615-
409 AM AKDT Wed May 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure over the central gulf Wednesday will
drift east over the panhandle by Thursday. A  weather front will
move into the eastern gulf Thursday night and  then over the
panhandle through Friday.  

$$

PKZ041-200615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
409 AM AKDT Wed May 19 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-200615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
409 AM AKDT Wed May 19 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-200615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
409 AM AKDT Wed May 19 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to
8 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-200615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
409 AM AKDT Wed May 19 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 13 ft
subsiding to 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-200615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
409 AM AKDT Wed May 19 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding
to 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
240 PM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/...After an unseasonably cool
night Sunday night and pockets of frost, Southeast Alaska finally
got a taste of more seasonable May weather. Mostly that was in
the form of less cloud cover with plenty of convective build-ups
over the land areas in afternoon heating. The phrase "afternoon
heating" is a relative term, though. Northern locations are still
lagging below normal daytime highs for this time of the year,
while more southerly locations are at or slightly above normal.

A slightly warmer low level airmass will move in over the
Panhandle from the north overnight, but not arrive over the
central and southern zones until tomorrow morning. This plus
partly cloudy skies expected over most of the Panhandle has
prompted another frost advisory for much of the Panhandle - some
places the same as last night.

PoP continues to be no issue, really, but afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are evident over the Yukon in satellite imagery.
Their progress to the south has been very slow today, so they will
likely not reach the border of the far northern inner channels
before daytime heating wanes today. Tomorrow will most likely be a
different story with the low level warmer air extending over all
of Southeast Alaska and significantly warmer conditions on the
Canadian side of the border. At present, the vast majority of the
PoP in tomorrow's forecast is on the Canadian side of the border,
but the potential for some action over the Panhandle is there in
the form of two colliding bands of mid level vorticity. So while
the forecast issued this afternoon does not contain any mention of
thunderstorms, night shift will be taking a close look at this and
changes in this regard may become necessary.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday to Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/ High
pressure will continue to dominate the AK Gulf through the middle
of the week, as a ridge extends its influence across the area. The
ridge breaks as a broad trough moves eastward into the Gulf,
allowing upstream waves near the Aleutians to track east. While
dry and sunny weather will last through much of Thursday, it looks
increasingly likely that rain will move in for Friday.
Operational and ensemble runs alike are coming into agreement on a
front making landfall, with Small Craft winds anticipated as a
result in the outer coastal waters. In addition to rain, have
warmer air moving in resulting in increasing temperatures through
the extended range. No indications of significant weather from
standardized anomaly and EFI tables. The weekend will likely
feature lingering chances of precipitation as the front's parent
low moves towards the area. Beyond this timeframe, multiple
streams in the upstream jet encourage rapidly increasing
uncertainty in the forecast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM AKDT Tuesday for
     AKZ021-025>028.
MARINE...None.

&&

FCF/CM/GFS

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