Small Craft Advisory 267, NWS Juneau, AK

593 
FZAK52 PAJK 122312
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-131715-
312 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low moving into the central gulf from the SW will push a front
into the panhandle Wednesday night, then linger there through
Thursday. Outlook. Another frontal trough will pass over the
region from the SW Friday night into Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-131715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
312 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the evening. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-131715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
312 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S in the evening, then
increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-131715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
312 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE and increasing to 25 kt late.
Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-131715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
312 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt late. Seas 4 ft 
building to 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-131715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
312 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 4 ft 
building to 7 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

012 
FZAK52 PAJK 131148
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140600-
348 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low in the north central gulf will push a front  into the
panhandle Thursday morning, then linger there through  Thursday.
Outlook. Another low forms in the northern gulf pushing  another
front over the region from the SW Friday night into  Saturday.  

$$

PKZ041-140600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
348 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 8 ft this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
348 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
348 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW late. Seas 11 ft. Rain in
the evening. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
348 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
348 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain in the evening.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

.SHORT TERM...Widely scattered showers have continued to occur
mostly in areas over the northern 2/3 of the Panhandle, today. The
low that was centered over the north-central Gulf near the
Alaskan Peninsula and its associated front continue to weaken and
fall apart into a wave. The showers will continue to decrease in
coverage and intensity throughout the night.

Diffluent onshore flow, represented in operational forecast
models and shown on current satellite imagery, will continue until
the next series of weak lows/waves move into the area. Those will
impact southeast Alaska around Wednesday evening and look to last
well into the weekend. Wednesday looks to be our good day with
decreased precipitation, winds, and mostly to partly cloudy skies
before the next weather makers approach. The onshore flow will
keep, at least, some chance of showers over the northern 2/3 of
the Panhandle until our the next systems approach and bring more
steady stratiform precipitation.

Areas along the inner channels and along the Chillkat Valley area
look to have higher chances of seeing breaks in the clouds before
the next weak lows/waves approach, due to downsloping on the
leeward side of the mountains. Some patchy fog is not out of the
question in the southern Panhandle, tonight, as the frontal system
continues to weaken and a positively tilted ridge centered well
to our south builds in from the west bringing mostly to partly
cloudy skies and relatively light winds to the area.

As for temperatures, generally, relatively average to slightly
below average temperatures look to stay in place over southeast
Alaska through the period. Thursday night looks to be the coldest
with temperatures near White Pass dipping down to near 30 by
Friday morning. Since moisture will be available during that time
period, some very light snow accumulation of less than 1/2 an inch
is possible only for the area near the Canadian border crossing.
The remainder of the region will stay well above freezing and
their precipitation type will stay all rain.

As for the winds, they look to remain relatively light and of low
impact at 15 kt or less through the short-term forecast period as
the approaching weather features are weak and bring no significant
increase to pressure gradient forcing. No significant marine or
land hazards are present through the period.

Forecast confidence is slightly above average as the forecast
models tend to be in good agreement on the positioning and
strength of the upcoming weather features during the short-term
forecast period.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday to Sunday as of 10 pm Sunday / The
overall trend has not altered significantly from the previous
thinking. A weak, confused, light zonal-like flow looking at the
various operational solutions and the long range guidance from
national center. With this light onshore flow persisting, shower
activity will continue until the weekend.

A ridge moving across the gulf ahead of a low pressure system moves
across the gulf late Friday and through the panhandle early
Saturday. A trough deepens along the British Columbia coast
Sunday. The trough finally should get moved inland Monday.

What this all means is as the ridge is approaching the coast on
Friday the southern panhandle will be working to decrease the
clouds and will lead to slightly warmer highs Friday. The passing
of the ridge axis leads to the next incoming frontal band. Looks
like operational solutions have a timing difference for this
feature, the ensemble solution used was leaning heavily towards
ECMWF centric in the extended. Will need to watch this situation
to see how it is adjusted over the next day or so.

Ensemble means and anomaly tables do not show anything too far
out of normal for the time being. Therefore, not expecting large
shifts away from the present temperature profile over SEAK,
although PoPs may lessen Friday and into very early Saturday, with
potential for breaks in the overcast or near overcast skies. Any
breaks during the day would likely lead to spike up in the
temperatures.

Forecast confidence in the long range is average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ051-052.

&&

JLC/Bezenek

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