Small Craft Advisory 266, NWS Juneau, AK

752 
FZAK52 PAJK 112318
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-121730-
318 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Westerly flow will continue through Tuesday night while a ridge
of high pressure pushes into the southern panhandle. A low moves
into the gulf from the SW Wed afternoon and pushes a front into
the panhandle Thu. 

$$

PKZ041-121730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
318 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-121730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
318 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 15 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-121730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
318 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 6 ft.
Showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-121730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
318 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-121730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
318 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing late. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...Scattered light rain showers have occurred over the
Gulf coastal areas of the Panhandle ahead of an approaching
frontal system, today. The front is approaching southeast Alaska
from the southwest and will make landfall this evening. The
associated low looks to make landfall near the Alaskan Peninsula
late Tuesday morning. The low will rapidly weaken after it makes
landfall as it loses upper level mass-removal support. The front
itself will make landfall over the Panhandle tonight and stall out
as the associated low dissipates.

Steady stratiform precip chances will begin the transition to
chances of showers throughout southeast Alaska from Tuesday
morning, onward. Onshore flow from a building ridge of high
pressure centered well to our south will give the more showery
pattern to the Panhandle after the front dissipates. Onshore flow
will remain at the low, middle, and upper levels through the
short-term forecast period.

Winds have been marginally increased from what was in the
previous forecast release over the Gulf, the inner channels, and
southeast Alaska with the approaching frontal system. Mariners
should be aware of a barrier jet feature with borderline Gales
over the northern Gulf associated with the aforementioned low and
front as they approach tonight into the morning. Additionally, for
the same timeframe, Cross Sound looks to have small craft winds.

The latest guidance still shows that temperatures will remain at
or slightly below average over the next three days. Therefore,
they should stay warm enough so that precipitation type should not
be an issue over the next three days.

Fog formation should not be an issue, tonight, due to increased
cloudiness and winds across the area.

It is beginning to look like a subsequent weaker low will begin
to approach the Panhandle from the west-southwest on Thursday
morning, bringing another increased chance of rain to a good
portion of the Panhandle for the end of the work week.

Forecast confidence is around average, due to decent model
agreement on strength and timing of the weather features through
the short-term forecast period.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday to Sunday as of 10 pm Sunday / The
overall trend has not altered significantly from the previous
thinking. A weak, confused, light zonal-like flow looking at the
various operational solutions and the long range guidance from
national center. With this light onshore flow persisting, shower
activity will continue until the weekend.

A ridge moving across the gulf ahead of a low pressure system moves
across the gulf late Friday and through the panhandle early
Saturday. A trough deepens along the British Columbia coast
Sunday. The trough finally should get moved inland Monday.

What this all means is as the ridge is approaching the coast on
Friday the southern panhandle will be working to decrease the
clouds and will lead to slightly warmer highs Friday. The passing
of the ridge axis leads to the next incoming frontal band. Looks
like operational solutions have a timing difference for this
feature, the ensemble solution used was leaning heavily towards
ECMWF centric in the extended. Will need to watch this situation
to see how it is adjusted over the next day or so.

Ensemble means and anomaly tables do not show anything too far
out of normal for the time being. Therefore, not expecting large
shifts away from the present temperature profile over SEAK,
although PoPs may lessen Friday and into very early Saturday, with
potential for breaks in the overcast or near overcast skies. Any
breaks during the day would likely lead to spike up in the
temperatures.

Forecast confidence in the long range is average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051-053.

&&

JLC/BC

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