Small Craft Advisory 264, NWS Juneau, AK

774 
FZAK53 PAJK 102344
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
344 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-111745-
Yakutat Bay-
344 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late.
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
5 ft. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

670 
FZAK53 PAJK 111150
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 AM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-120600-
Yakutat Bay-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.WED...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...Scattered showers are still around for most of the
panhandle this Mother's Day, but as flow aloft has become more
NWLY this afternoon, more and more breaks in the clouds are
showing up on the lee side of the mountains. The sunny breaks are
adding to sea breezes this afternoon as well. A surface and upper
level ridge of high pressure will gradually shift east over the
inner channels tonight. This will cause decreasing winds and
subsidence. Expect fog potential to be fairly widespread
overnight, especially with outgoing tide adding to the moisture
source until 7am.

The next low pressure system is developing over the north Pacific
and will track into the eastern gulf from the SSW Monday. Models
have come into better agreement on the track of the low and, to a
lesser degree, on the timing of rain moving into the outer coast.
Generally models have slowed it down some and the front looks to
weaken as it moves inland, making precip amounts lighter. The
slower timing also means a longer break between systems (although
still primarily happening during overnight hours). The greatest
likelihood of rain will stay near the low center as it moves into
the NE gulf Monday night, giving Yakutat the highest POP.
Diffluent onshore flow behind the front will keep scattered to
numerous showers in the forecast for most of Tuesday. Temperatures
aloft will warm a couple degrees with the low coming out of the
Pacific, so any sunny breaks will allow for highs to reach into
the mid 50s, closer to normal.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday to Saturday as of 10 pm Saturday / The
overall trend has not altered to significantly from the Friday
evening thinking. A weak confused light zonal-like flow looking
at the various operational solutions and the long range guidance
from national center. With this light onshore flow from Tuesday
onward continued showers until the weekend.

The one main difference in the models this evening is the deeper
trough headed towards the Pacific Northwest Friday is not as
pronounce, with a smaller wave headed towards the panhandle
mainly. A weak ridge moving across the gulf ahead of low moves
across the gulf towards the panhandle for Saturday and Sunday. The
associated Surface feature looks to be impacting the panhandle
area Saturday with likely showers persisting into the start of the
following weak across the gulf.

Ensemble means shows anything to far out of normal for the time
being. Therefore, not expecting large shifts away from the
present temperature profile over SEAK, although PoPs may lessen
Friday and into very early Saturday, with potential for breaks in
the overcast or near overcast skies. Any breaks during the day
would likely lead to spike up in the temperatures.

Forecast confidence in the long range is average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

Ferrin/Bezenek

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