Small Craft Advisory 263, NWS Juneau, AK

133 
FZAK52 PAJK 092339
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-101745-
339 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge will move over the panhandle tonight. Another low will
move into the Gulf of Alaska on Monday and push a front  into
southeast Alaska late on Monday and into Monday night. The front
lingers over the area into Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-101745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
339 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...Light S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 8 
ft. W swell in the evening.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-101745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
339 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. 
W swell in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-101745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
339 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell 
early in the evening. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-101745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
339 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming light, then
becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-101745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
339 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

300 
FZAK52 PAJK 101130
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 AM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-110530-
330 AM AKDT Mon May 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low moves into the gulf early Monday pushing a front into the
panhandle into Monday night. The front gradually dissipates over
the area into Tuesday.  

$$

PKZ041-110530-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
330 AM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
10 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W late. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-110530-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
330 AM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
10 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW late. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-110530-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
330 AM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
10 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-110530-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
330 AM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S late. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-110530-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
330 AM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

789 
FZAK52 PAJK 102346
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-111800-
346 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure over the central gulf will track north Monday
night, then dissipate near Prince William Sound Tuesday. An
associated front will weaken as it passes over the panhandle 
tonight. SWLY flow will persist behind the front into Wednesday.

$$

PKZ041-111800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
346 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt in the evening becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 8
ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-111800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
346 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt in the evening becoming SW 20 kt. Seas
building to 9 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-111800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
346 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft
building to 10 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-111800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
346 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt in the evening, becoming SE
25 kt late. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-111800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
346 PM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building
to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

479 
FZAK52 PAJK 111150
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 AM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-120600-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure moving into Prince William Sound and weak ridging
over the SE gulf will maintain southerly flow Tuesday. Another
low moves into the SW gulf Wed and pushes a front into the
panhandle Thu. 

$$

PKZ041-120600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-120600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-120600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-120600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-120600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming S in the morning, then diminishing
to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the
afternoon. Showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
232 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...A trough extended across the gulf from the Alaska
peninsula to Sitka/Metlakatla is slowly moving northward this
afternoon. This trough brings with it widespread showers, that
should stay on the light side as the trough progresses into the
northern panhandle tonight. Separately, an "easterly wave"
represented by a mid-level low pressure center lingering over
northern B.C. near the Coast Mtns. has kept showers going across
the northern half of the panhandle all day. Between these two
features, a narrow area with breaks in the clouds can be seen
with satellite imagery. By Sunday morning a mid to upper level
ridge will be building over the gulf. That typically helps to
decrease showers, but the combination of the trough and the easterly
wave low looks continue showers across the north for the first
half of the day. The southern panhandle looks to have the best
breaks for Mother's day with decreasing clouds expected in the
afternoon. For this reason, have kept the Ketchikan and POW
areas the warmest in the region for Sunday.

The dirty ridge will tip over and pass by on Monday. This causes
a shift back to SWLY onshore flow and allows another front to
approach from the SW. Models differ on the track of the assoc low
pressure center and timing of when rain with the front reaches
the coast, anywhere from 9am Monday (NAM) to 4am Tuesday
(Canadian). Because of this big difference, have kept POP a bit
lower than typical at this stage in the forecast, but did retain a
band of rain likely tracking through where models had some
agreement. One thing in agreement is that the best "break" in
rainfall between systems will be during Sunday night into Monday
morning (when most are asleep). Have added some patchy fog to
Monday morning to account for extra radiational cooling which
lines up with low tide at around 7am.

.LONG TERM.../ Monday to Friday as of 10 pm Friday / Upper level
flow spreads a trough aloft into the eastern gulf and through
SEAK Monday and Monday night. At the surface a low lifts
northwards into the northern gulf while the associated frontal
band spreads into the panhandle. A weak surface ridge forms in
front of the British Columbia coast and to the southern panhandle
while a weak onshore flow continues across the gulf to the
panhandle. Model agreement looks fairly solid on the Monday low
into the gulf, and the upper trough moving through.

Ensemble means have a fairly good agreement that that system will
be the last of the more significant items to move through the
panhandle. There is no strong signal of anything to far out of
normal tolerance for this time of year. Tuesday to early Thursday
the 500 mb flow is more zonal however the thinking is that a
shortwave will dig a trough south out of the gulf an into the
eastern Pacific to be off of Vancouver island by late Friday.

Overall the pattern remains as an onshore flow pattern and no
significant reason to end it, so other than QPF amounts being
lighter, although PoP levels are slowly lowering in the 30-40
percent range for the end of the week. No unseasonable
temperatures are anticipated as well so looking primarily for
highs in the 50s and lows near 40.

Another front moving across the gulf and towards the panhandle
creating weather for the following weekend. Forecast confidence in
the long range is average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ042-043.

&&

Ferrin/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau