Small Craft Advisory 262, NWS Juneau, AK

075 
FZAK52 PAJK 081121
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-090530-
321 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front will move north over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the
Panhandle Saturday and Saturday night.  

$$

PKZ041-090530-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
321 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Showers early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas building to 8 ft late. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-090530-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
321 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas building to 8 ft late. Showers in 
the evening.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-090530-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
321 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming W late. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-090530-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
321 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas building to 8 ft late. Rain showers
late.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-090530-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
321 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas building to 8 ft late. Rain 
showers.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

715 
FZAK52 PAJK 082336
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-091745-
336 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front will move north over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the
Panhandle tonight. A ridge will build Sunday and  last through
Sunday night. Another low will move into the Gulf of Alaska on
Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-091745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
336 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell late. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. W swell in the evening.
Rain late. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-091745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
336 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. SW swell late. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-091745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
336 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W late. Seas 7 ft. Showers
early in the evening. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-091745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
336 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W late. Seas 7 ft. Showers
late. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-091745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
336 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W late. Seas 7 ft. Showers
early in the evening. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding
to 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
235 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/ The weather story in the
short term can still be described as unsettle. For starters, the
recent low pressure system that moved into the eastern gulf will
fade out tonight. Saturday brings an incoming front that will move
north through the area during the day and clear the northern
Panhandle late Saturday night. After that, a ridge of high
pressure builds over the Panhandle Sunday.

All that being said, the weather really won’t change that much,
save for the coastal areas. The inner channels will see mostly
cloudy to cloudy skies and the POPs for precip don’t ever really
dip below 20 percent until Sunday afternoon. Daily lows are
within a couple degrees of 40 and highs are in the upper 40s to
low 50s. The winds will be around 10 to 15 kt or less for most of
the area but some stronger winds are possible along the front.

As the front moves north tomorrow, just head of the front will be
some stronger winds. We kept the 25 kt winds from the inherited
forecast so no change in the wind forecast for the coastal waters.
One area of uncertainty is the wind for Clarence Strait Saturday.
Wind speeds were around 25 kt among the models that are known for
overestimating wind. So we decided to keep the winds below the
Small Craft Advisory criteria but confidence is low for that part
of the forecast.

Sunday could play out to be a nice day. If the ridge can build up
enough, breaks in the clouds are possible. Winds should be light
around the area.

.LONG TERM...Sun through Fri as of 9 PM Thu...Model guidance
still supports an upper low over the Bering Sea persisting into
early next week before weakening, then restrengthening mid to late
next week. This will maintain an active pattern across gulf and
into SE AK through the extended forecast, but details are
difficult to identify as model solutions diverge in timing and
strength of perturbations ejecting out the parent low and across
the gulf. Current operational runs and ensembles remain in good
agreement regarding the upper pattern, but differ regarding
surface features in the timing and strength. Period is expected to
begin with one system dissipating and another approaching from
the SW. This approaching system will impact the region Mon into
Tue, but confidence in details regarding strength of the system
and precip amounts remains low. Strongest signals from all
guidance is for slightly below normal temps with afternoon highs
in the upper 40s to mid 50s through mid week. Given the
uncertainty in the extended, made little change to inherited
forecast with trends towards WPC guidance late next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.

&&

GJS/Suk

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