Small Craft Advisory 256, NWS Juneau, AK

408 
FZAK52 PAJK 051331
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
531 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-060745-
531 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system will move into the Eastern Gulf Thursday.
High pressure in Canada will cause increasing winds and waves
across Southeast Alaska through Friday.   

$$

PKZ041-060745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
531 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming E 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell early
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-060745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
531 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND THIS EVENING THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-060745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
531 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers late. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-060745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
531 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-060745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
531 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

648 
FZAK52 PAJK 051535 AAA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
735 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-060945-
735 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system will move into the Eastern Gulf Thursday.
High pressure in Canada will cause increasing winds and waves
across Southeast Alaska through Friday.   

$$

PKZ041-060945-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
735 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming E 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-060945-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
735 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-060945-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
735 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers late. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-060945-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
735 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-060945-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
735 AM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

526 
FZAK52 PAJK 052330
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-061730-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system will move into the Eastern Gulf Thursday.
High pressure in Canada will cause increasing winds and waves
across Southeast Alaska through Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-061730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft late.
Showers in the evening. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-061730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-061730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-061730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-061730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

117 
FZAK52 PAJK 061214
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
414 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-070615-
414 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system will move into the Eastern Gulf Thursday.
High pressure over Canada in conjunction with the low in the
Gulf will cause increasing winds over the northern inner 
channels on Thursday and the southern inner channels through
Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-070615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
414 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the morning. Seas 13 
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 9 ft late.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-070615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
414 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Showers early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt  diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-070615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
414 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the morning, then
shifting SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Showers early in 
the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-070615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
414 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SE swell late. Showers.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-070615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
414 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

757 
FZAK52 PAJK 062335
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-071745-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system will move into the Eastern Gulf tonight
and weaken through Friday. As the low weakens, winds and seas
will decrease. Then a front will move north through the area
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-071745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-071745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-071745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers early in the
evening. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-071745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers in the evening. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-071745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 7 ft. Showers in
the evening. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

811 
FZAK52 PAJK 071224
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-080630-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system over the Eastern Gulf will weaken through
Friday. As the low weakens, winds and seas will decrease. Then a
front will move north through the area Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-080630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 6 ft.
Showers late. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-080630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-080630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-080630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-080630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the 
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
244 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday/ Disorganized front moving
through the panhandle this afternoon bringing showers of rain to
many areas. Rainfall has not been that heavy though some moderate
showers have shown up at Juneau briefly (dropping around .11
inches in an hour). Little in the way of wind with this front as
well through there are some exceptions. Lynn Canal and Skagway are
the main ones with 20 to 25 kt southerlies blowing through there
this afternoon.

Front is expected to blow through the panhandle early this
evening, followed by gradually diminishing onshore flow. That
onshore flow will keep a chance of showers and clouds going
through most of the night. After midnight however flow gradually
turns offshore which will cause the showers to shut off and breaks
to develop in the cloud cover especially in the north as the low
level boundary layer begins to dry out. The breaks may allow
temperatures to get cool overnight in some areas so left the
mention of patchy fog in for a lot of areas. Frost is also a
possibility as the breaks in cloud cover develop for parts of the
Haines Road, Yakutat, and Hyder where frost advisories have been
issued. All of this is dependent on how fast the breaks develop
so if skies remain overcast temperatures could stay warmer then
expected with less chance of fog or frost.

Focus for Wed night into Thu then shifts to a new low coming up
into the Eastern gulf from the S. The low itself stays offshore,
but at least two frontal bands will try and affect the area. The
first one will likely not have much success due to the still
strong offshore flow across the area other then bringing more mid
to high level cloud cover. Possibility of some rain for the outer
coast Wed night though with outflow not quite as strong there as
further inland.

Second frontal band begins to move into the panhandle Thu
afternoon which will be stronger then the first one. The low will
also have moved far enough north by this point that the offshore
flow will have turned more along shore allowing rain to be more
probable. This rain will then spread northward through Thu night.
Expected rainfall will be light though with only up to a quarter
inch likely. There is also the possibility of some gusty winds
for the southern panhandle (possibility of 40 mph gusts at
Hydaburg) for Thu afternoon as the front comes inland as well.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday night/...This extended range
forecast begins with some meaningful differences in the upper
levels that get larger with time. When that happens, the
situation does note bode well for model agreement at the surface
and that is, in fact the case today. In general terms, this long
range forecast period begins with a large and negatively tilted
upper trough extending southeast across the Gulf with an upper low
at the bottom of the trough somewhere southwest of Haida Gwaii.
Models cut off the low and weaken the upper trough by late Friday
morning, but details on where this happens are different for each
model. By this coming weekend, low pressure aloft looks like it
will build in from the west across the Gulf and at least one model
merges the original upper low with a trough expanding from the
west. By early next week, model solutions over Southeast Alaska
vary between a strong ridge and a weak upper low across the Gulf
and Southeast Alaska. Not good. At the surface, models are
depicting a significant low somewhere to the south of Haida
Gwaii, or to the west, or to the north. Implications of this are
significant when it comes to the resultant winds over the inner
channels and eastern Gulf. By Friday, solutions vary between a
surface low west of the Dixon Entrance, a broad ridge over the
eastern Gulf and Panhandle, or a front extending east across the
Gulf from a low south of the Alaskan Peninsula. Modeled
precipitation is as disparate amongst the models as the various
other features. Ensembles have been somewhat more consistent,
but are substantially different than the deterministic solutions.
So there's some more "not good".

To quote a popular movie from the early 1980's, "The only winning
move is not to play". In fact, that has been our approach to such
poor deterministic model guidance agreement and such disparate
ensemble guidance. Few if any changes were made to this extended
range forecast and confidence is well below average. -Fritsch

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ017-019-
     029.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051>053.

&&

EAL/Fritsch

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