Small Craft Advisory 253, NWS Juneau, AK

095 
FZAK53 PAJK 041209
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
409 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-050615-
Yakutat Bay-
409 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. SW
swell. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Thru Thursday / Weakening frontal band across the
northern third of the panhandle has spread light rain into the
northern part, while a trailing cold trough has collected and is
ushering a partially organized band showers from the eastern Gulf
of Alaska into the panhandle late this afternoon and this
evening. Winds over Southeast Alaska inner channels and many of
the land sites are under 15 kt/mph this afternoon with just a few
local windier areas to 20 kt.

High pressure builds northwest into the eastern gulf and into the
southern panhandle Tuesday. This will start ending the showers
for the south, however the position of the high will maintain
widespread shower activity for the northeast gulf into Tuesday
night and tapering off early Wednesday. The high cuts off and
continues to reposition into southern gulf coast and southern part
of the state Wednesday, leading to a dry day for the forecast
area.

A low will develop in the eastern Pacific in the vicinity of
45N/140W. This low will drift northward across 50N and start to
push a front northwest west of Haida Gwaii and into the SE gulf
Wednesday night, and then will eventually spread east some and
through the panhandle Thursday.

Temperatures near seasonal values if not a couple degrees warmer,
so nearly all the precip will be rain except at the higher
elevations. Higher mountain tops may have a mix or snow. Near the
passes of the Klondike and Haines Highways and perhaps near
Eaglecrest could see a few flakes as well. From the high position
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, their is a chance of some
larger breaks and overnight lows a cooling a few more degrees
mainly around Yakutat and NW of Haines. The overnight temperatures
their may allow some frost to possibly develop late that night.
Do not feel confident enough just yet to post an advisory.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/ Not
a lot of change in thinking for the long term forecast. Aloft, a
ridge axis will be located over BC with the panhandle located
upstream of the feature. To the W, an upper trough and associated
low will be located over the Gulf and is expected to dig SE. This
will displace the upper ridge allowing for an mean area of low
pressure aloft through the extended period.

At the surface, offshore will be ongoing as a surface low located
in the southern Gulf increases NE-E flow. This will allow for a
break in precip Wednesday with even a few areas, particularly the
northern panhandle, seeing some sunshine. By late Wednesday night
into Thursday, the surface low shifts to the NW bringing with it
an associated frontal band. Model guidance vary on track and
intensity with the GFS bringing the low north with the most
rainfall. This seems to be the outlier as the NAM, Canadian, and
EC shifts the low to the SE. Depending on the solution, precip
potential will vary drastically. For now, decided to go
conservative and keep the low held back keeping highest POP along
the outer coast. Unfortunately, model guidance quickly degrades
past Thursday with varying model solutions. This is due to there
being an overall low pressure over the Gulf and a ridge of high
pressure in the Pacific. Models are struggling to see how these
two features interact with one another. Overall, it can be said
that an active pattern is favored though. No matter how you spin
it, multiple short waves look to move over the panhandle through
the week keeping precip throughout the forecast.

Winds look minor through the long term. As the surface low
develops in the southern Gulf on Wednesday evening, small craft
winds are expected through the southern outside coastal waters.
Through the inner channels, pressure gradients look to support 15
to 20 kts of wind Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be
slightly below normal for highs with above normal temperatures
for overnight lows.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/CC

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