Small Craft Advisory 243, NWS Juneau, AK

345 
FZAK52 PAJK 271140
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-280545-
340 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure over the Panhandle shifts SE to the BC
Coast Tue morning. A front lifts NE into the SE gulf mid day Tue 
and into the northern gulf and northern Panhandle Tue night. A low
arrives in the SE gulf Wednesday night.

$$

PKZ041-280545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
340 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas building to 11 ft. Rain early in the 
morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-280545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
340 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas building to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-280545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
340 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to
13 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-280545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
340 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-280545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
340 AM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

633 
FZAK52 PAJK 272339
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-281745-
339 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
An area of low pressure is located over the Gulf. Multiple 
surface lows move into the Gulf from the S through Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-281745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
339 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 subsiding to 7 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas building to 9 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-281745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
339 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 7 ft. Rain early 
in the evening.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-281745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
339 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-281745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
339 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-281745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
339 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

499 
FZAK52 PAJK 281222
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
422 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-290630-
422 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
An area of low pressure and an associated front are situated
over the Gulf and Panhandle Wednesday morning. Multiple surface 
lows will move into the Gulf from the southwest and come ashore 
over the Panhandle through Friday evening. 

$$

PKZ041-290630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
422 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-290630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
422 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming S late. Seas 9 ft. Rain in the
evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-290630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
422 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-290630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
422 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 7 ft late. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-290630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
422 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

656 
FZAK52 PAJK 282326
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-291730-
326 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Multiple surface lows will move into the Gulf from the southwest
and come ashore over the Panhandle through Friday evening. 

$$

PKZ041-291730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
326 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas building to 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain late. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-291730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
326 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt, then becoming S 15 kt late.
Seas building to 9 ft. Rain in the evening.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain late. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-291730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
326 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas building to 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-291730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
326 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-291730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
326 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 9 ft. 
Rain in the evening.
.THU...Light winds becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

672 
FZAK52 PAJK 291155
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-300600-
355 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Multiple surface lows will move into the Gulf from the southwest
and come ashore over the Panhandle through Friday evening. 

$$

PKZ041-300600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
355 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers late. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-300600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
355 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-300600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
355 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-300600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
355 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 7 ft. Rain
showers. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-300600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
355 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
251 PM AKDT Mon Apr 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...Showers are back in the forecast to end the month of
April and hopefully 'bring May flowers'. The southern panhandle
can expect rain showers to begin early tomorrow morning. The
northern half of the panhandle will see increasing clouds through
the day tomorrow before precipitation starts late Tuesday
evening. As mentioned in this morning's AFD, precipitation may
start as snow in the Mendenhall Valley and in areas elevated above
sea level. However, multiple factors including low temperatures
in the mid 30s will not support long term snowfall or anything
more than the most minor of snow accumulations. The metrics have
largely not changed since yesterday regarding any snow falling or
mixing in with rain across the northern Inner Channels. For more
detailed descriptions of the parameters and setup that we
examined for snow, please see the long- term discussion below.

The cyclonic flow around a surface low in the western gulf today
will pull warm, moist air from as far south as Hawaii. This
plume of moisture will strengthen through the week, and by
Wednesday afternoon, the southern portion of the panhandle will
see heavy rain rates. Storm total precipitation amounts to over 2
inches in Ketchikan and over an inch in other southern areas are
anticipated through Thursday.

High temperatures will be almost 10 degrees lower than today
largely due to a decrease in solar heating caused by the increased
cloud cover. Conversely, low temperatures will warm to near 40
degrees on Wednesday, and cloud cover will keep temperatures from
large fluctuations throughout the day.

Winds will increase Tuesday afternoon; many land areas will see
winds at 15 kts, inside waters up to 25 kts, and outside waters up
to 30 kts. Winds will decrease through the evening hours. The
exception to this will be downtown Juneau, where breezy conditions
are possible late Tuesday into Tuesday night thanks to outflow
winds.

The main change made in the forecast was an increase in
precipitation for for the southern portion of the panhandle
Wednesday into Thursday. Additionally, wind speeds were raised in
many areas in anticipation of the approaching systems.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Saturday/

A complicated forecast begins the long term period as a major
pattern change takes place across Southeast Alaska. Cooler
temperatures, rainfall... and yes, even the potential for snow are
back in the forecast.

The overall set up has not changed drastically since last night's
discussion; however there were some updates to the finer details
of the forecast which made a big difference. The period begins
with a broad area of low pressure in the southwestern gulf with
multiple fronts and waves rotating into the Panhandle. The first
wave, which is more like an elongated E-W oriented front, is
lifting northward through the Central and Northern Panhandle on
Wednesday. At the same time, an arctic front and associated low
pressure are on the BC side of the Coast Mountains. Model guidance
this evening does not show these two systems phasing as much as
they did yesterday. Phasing of the systems would allow cold arctic
air to spill south while warmer gulf moisture overruns it... an
ideal set up for snow in the north. Since guidance has backed off
on the amount of influence they have on each other, it is
understandable the cold air advection advertised is looking
weaker. Temps at 850 mb drop to -3C to -6C with tonight's model
runs rather than down to -10C as previously thought. deterministic
models are also not as low with the 1000-850mb thicknesses as the
1290m line just barely gets down to Juneau (last night's runs
were showing less than 1280m). Snow levels are still expected to
drop down to zero across Upper Lynn Canal and to a few hundred
feet across the Icy Strait corridor. While accumulating snow is
looking less likely, still think it is possible to see a rain/snow
mix for the Icy Strait Corridor early Wednesday morning before a
complete changeover to rain as the front pushes northward. Another
change to the precip forecast was to hold back the onset of the
precipitation a few hours across the north, as drier air currently
in place will be hard to overcome initially. Also lowered POP and
QPF for Upper Lynn Canal as northerly downsloping winds and dry
air should prevent significant precipitation from making it that
far north. Despite the lower snowfall potential, confidence is
still high that much of the Panhandle will remain wet (rainy)
during this time frame... ending a 2 week streak of dry weather!

Once the front lifts north Wednesday morning, warmer air will push
in from the south changing all precipitation over to rain across the
north. Higher confidence exists in the precipitation forecast
through the weekend as multiple waves/systems move northward in the
eastern gulf. There are still model discrepancies regarding the
exact track of each feature; however the GFS, Euro, and ensembles
are hinting at a much stronger area of low pressure moving north
in the eastern gulf Thursday into Friday. The current forecast
reflects this and keeps a high chance for rain across the entire
region. Southerly flow, rising snow levels, and rising 1000-850mb
thickness values raise confidence that precipitation type will be
all rain for the rest of the week. Through the weekend, onshore
southerly flow continues keeping the chance for showers/rainfall
across much of the Panhandle. WPC is looking at another potential
rain maker for early next week.

Expect an increase in winds across marine areas as each
front/wave passes by. Current forecast has small craft conditions
Wednesday in the northern gulf ahead of the lifting front. The
system for Thursday/Friday looks to be quite a bit stronger and
more organized as guidance shows a closed low moving northward in
the eastern gulf. Models are still having issues regarding the
track of the low lowering confidence on the wind forecast for the
end of the week. Current forecast has conditions just under small
crafts for marine areas as this system passes by; however expect
an increase in the wind forecast once there is better consensus
on the timing, placement, and strength of the system.

Used GFS/EURO for changes during the first half of the long term
then strongly blended toward WPC towards next weekend. Confidence
remains low through the long term regarding the finer details of
each event. However, there is higher confidence in switch back to
a wet weather pattern.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-035-036-041>043-051-
     052.

&&

KRT/CM

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