Small Craft Advisory 239, NWS Juneau, AK

053 
FZAK51 PAJK 241143
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-250230-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Low pressure will pass south of southeast Alaska today. High
pressure weakens over Canada through tonight. 

$$

PKZ011-250230-
Glacier Bay-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-250230-
Northern Lynn Canal-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-250230-
Southern Lynn Canal-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-250230-
Icy Strait-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-250230-
Cross Sound-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-250230-
Stephens Passage-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-250230-
Northern Chatham Strait-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-250230-
Southern Chatham Strait-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near ocean
entrances, seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-250230-
Frederick Sound-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-250230-
Sumner Strait-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-250230-
Clarence Strait-
343 AM AKDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
217 PM AKDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/...This short term forecast
is virtually the same as the forecast issued this morning,
yesterday, and yesterday morning. The recurring theme is clear
skies and dry weather. Daytime highs will rise above normal and
overnight lows will dip below normal. Northerly winds will be
strongest over the far northern inner channels with marginal small
craft winds over Lynn Canal.

The ridge of high pressure that was over the eastern Gulf has
dissipated, having been replaced with a broad but weak area of low
pressure. Meanwhile, a moderate strength northerly pressure
gradient remains in place courtesy of high pressure over northwest
Canada. The net effect of this is twofold. First, the low pressure
over the eastern Gulf is allowing high Cirrus clouds to flow over
the southern Panhandle. This is mostly a nighttime phenomena and
those clouds were observed to shift south during the day today. A
similar situation will likely happen overnight tonight. Secondly,
marginal small craft northerlies persist over northern Lynn Canal
with 10 to 20 mph winds out of the north or northwest in Skagway
and Haines. The daytime seabreeze influence in both of those
locations has not been strong enough in either of those locations
to reverse the wind direction, but merely diminish the northerly
wind speeds. Expect the same situation for Saturday. Heading into
the extended range forecast period, the northerly pressure
gradient will weaken as high pressure over the Yukon and the
Northwest Territories weakens significantly. No impactful changes
to this short term forecast. Confidence remains above average for
warmer than normal daytime highs, colder than normal overnight
lows, clear skies and dry weather through Saturday night.

.LONG TERM.../Sun through Fri as of 10 pm Thu/ A significant
pattern change is in the works for the area as the upper ridge
that has been giving us the nice weather breaks down in favor of a
pair of upper lows to the W and NE of the area. Overall confidence
is rather good for this pattern change with only a few notable
changes mid to late week. These changes include the Canadian
Arctic upper low not getting as far W as was indicated earlier
this week and the Aleutian upper low taking longer to move into
the Southern gulf.

Branching off of this, the main problem of the extended period for
the panhandle is when this long stretch of nice weather will end.
The changes mentioned above in the upper levels are still messing
with the how and when of when the next front brings rain and wind
back into the forecast for next week. Guidance has been leaning
toward a front coming up from the south Tue into Wed bringing some
wind and rain to most of the panhandle. However today, the slower
progress of the aleutian upper low moving E has resulted in a
trend toward that front now only getting to the central panhandle
before weakening. This means that the northern panhandle has the
potential to remain dry into Wed now. However, with this being a
recent change, and guidance still shifting things around, we are
not completely biting on it yet, so chance pops are still in the
forecast for the northern panhandle with higher pops farther S
Wed. Similarly winds are also reduced a little for the Tue into
Wed period but breezy conditions are still there as things
continue to settle.

A better chance of rain and and winds is starting to set up for
the late week period now with a second front coming up from the S
on Thu. This one looks more likely to get most of the panhandle
wet as the farther e position of the upper low by this point will
allow the front to get farther north. So a general trend of more
active and wetter into late next week is the general outlook.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.

&&

FCF/BFL/EAL

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