Small Craft Advisory 225, NWS Juneau, AK

111 
FZAK51 PAJK 131123
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-140230-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A strong surface low moves north into the western Gulf with an 
associated gale force front in the eastern Gulf Tuesday night into
Wednesday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ011-140230-
Glacier Bay-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow early in the 
morning, then rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-140230-
Northern Lynn Canal-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 35 kt early in the morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 3 ft
in the afternoon. Rain early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-140230-
Southern Lynn Canal-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-140230-
Icy Strait-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain early in the morning. Rain
in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-140230-
Cross Sound-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the
afternoon. Rain early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas building to 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-140230-
Stephens Passage-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Strongest winds
near Young bay. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Strongest winds
near Young bay. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft in the morning then 2 ft or 
less.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-140230-
Northern Chatham Strait-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain early in
the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the
evening. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-140230-
Southern Chatham Strait-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the morning. Seas
4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 9 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-140230-
Frederick Sound-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming light in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft 
in the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-140230-
Sumner Strait-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft in 
the evening then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
Rain in the evening.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-140230-
Clarence Strait-
323 AM AKDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft in 
the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less, except 4 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
245 PM AKDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday/ Rather active and wet day as a
front brings moisture to the area. Temperatures have warmed up
into the mid to upper 30s for quite a few areas this afternoon.
The result is that most of the observed precip has been in the
form of rain rather then snow with little in the way of snow
accumulations being observed. The winter weather advisories that
were out for parts of the northern panhandle today were cancelled
early as a result. The exception to that is the Yakutat area where
higher precip rates kept temperatures down closer to freezing and
thus produced more snow. Upwards of 6 to 8 inches of snow was
observed as of 1 pm, but it is starting to warm enough that the
snow is starting to melt and rain is starting to mix in. The
winter storm warning that is out is still expected to expire on
time at 4 pm this evening.

The rest of the short range mainly focuses on the continued
precipitation. First the rain from the initial frontal bands will
gradually diminish through Tue as the main forcing for it moves
into Canada. The development of a new low on the front farther
south brings the precip back to the W for late Tue night into Wed
with a focus mainly on the NE gulf coast. Continued warm air
advection, especially with this next low, will keep temperatures
warm enough that the ptype is expected to be all rain. Snow
levels will also be on the rise getting up to 2000 to 3000 feet by
Wed. Precipitation will then diminish, and temperatures will
overall continue to warm into Wed night as surface ridging begins
to poke into the area.

Southerly winds of 25 to 30 are blowing through the Lynn Canal
area this afternoon and will persist into this evening. Strong
wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph have been observed at Haines and
Skagway this afternoon as well. These winds should diminishing
this evening as the surface troughing in the Southern Yukon
weakens. Otherwise, the only other winds of note are the 25 to 30
kt winds out in the gulf associated with the lingering front which
should be diminishing overnight as well. Next batch of stronger
winds is with the next low coming up on Tue night. Gale force
winds (possible storm force near Cape Suckling) will be seen
across the gulf, but should stay far enough west that the inner
channels may only see breezy conditions from this front.

Overall changes mainly focused on the warming of temperatures
today that flipped precip type to be more rain across the north
tonight into Tomorrow. Otherwise, mostly minor changes overall.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/... The long term begins
with a sharp baroclinic zone over the gulf with waves of
precipitation moving northwards towards the NE gulf coast. High
pressure over BC will be creeping westward through the end of the
week, slowly pushing the bulk of the precipitation west and out of
the region. Wednesday is still expected to be the wettest day of
the long term as a low moving north into Prince William sound
swings a dying gale force front into the Northern Panhandle and NE
gulf coast. Guidance this evening has trended slightly eastward
with the front, keeping the chance for rain across the northern
half of the region through Wednesday afternoon. With the front
slightly eastward, increased winds across the northern gulf and
along the NE gulf coast to gales Wednesday morning. Expect winds
to rapidly diminish through the day as the front dissipates and
higher pressure takes over.

As the main storm track directs the bulk of the storms into the
northwest gulf by Thursday, a responding ridge blows up across
western North America and pumps up much appreciated spring-time
warmth (850 mb temps +2C to +8C) into Southeast Alaska through
the weekend. Thus, look for a broad and remarkable warming trend
day by day. As Juneau and the northern Panhandle approaches 50
degrees by Friday, Prince of Wales Island and Ketchikan may see
60! It's about time! Alas springtime sunshine will make a grand
appearance. With higher pressure over Canada and an inverted
trough forming over the Panhandle, expect light northerly flow to
persist through the weekend. Daily sea breezes will likely develop
Friday and Saturday afternoon as well.

Confidence remains fairly high that the endless winter weather
will finally be kicked out as a spring-time pattern takes hold of
the region. Good agreement exists among the deterministic models
and ensembles through the long term. Used a blend of models for
the start of the period then transitioned to WPC towards the
latter end.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-041>043-053.

&&

EAL/CM

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