Small Craft Advisory 219, NWS Juneau, AK

373 
FZAK51 PAJK 110318 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-111430-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Low pressure in BC exits E Sat evening. High pressure
strengthens Sat night in the Canadian Yukon as a ridge builds
over the SE gulf then exits early Sun. A weather front lifts NE
into  the eastern gulf through Sun morning. A gale force front
follows  into the central gulf Mon. 

$$

PKZ011-111430-
Glacier Bay-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.

.SUN...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas building
to 3 ft late. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ012-111430-
Northern Lynn Canal-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Snow
in the evening, then snow and rain late. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ013-111430-
Southern Lynn Canal-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft in
the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
and snow late. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ021-111430-
Icy Strait-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow late. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ022-111430-
Cross Sound-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-111430-
Stephens Passage-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ032-111430-
Northern Chatham Strait-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 
ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ033-111430-
Southern Chatham Strait-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft 
or less, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 4 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ034-111430-
Frederick Sound-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft 
or less. 
.SUN...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ035-111430-
Sumner Strait-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 4 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ036-111430-
Clarence Strait-
718 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
237 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday/ Lingering showers are the rule of
the day across the panhandle this afternoon. Though the showers
are not quite as strong as what was seen in Juneau yesterday,
there have been some reports of up to 2 inches in the northern
panhandle over the last 12 to 24 hours. Helping the showers stay
as snow is a wedge of cold outflow that is blowing down through
the northern panhandle right now. Lynn Canal has been blowing
around 25 to 30 kt out of the north most of the day and temperatures
have been struggling to get out of the 20s this afternoon for
places north of Angoon and Sitka (Haines and Skagway are barely
out of the teens).

The showers should continue this evening before starting to
diminish late as what is left of the trough over the area gets
pushed in Canada tonight. One day of relatively quiet weather on
Sun as conditions will be mostly dry and the northerly winds
diminish Sat night and then switch to a southerly on Sun. Focus
then shifts to the next front working its way across the gulf for
Mon. This front is looking wet and warm with a moisture stream
going all the way back to the tropics (though the integrated
moisture transport vectors are not that high with this system),
but there is not much wind associated with it (gale force near
Cape Suckling at most on Mon). Looks like precip will be starting
up again for the NE gulf coast Sun evening and will spread
eastward Sun night into Mon (it will stop short of reaching the
southern panhandle though with only slight chance to chance pops
there). Precip likely to start as snow for a few areas in the
north, but is generally expected to switch over to rain with low
snow accumulation expected (850 mb temps warming into the 4 to 6
below zero C range in the northern panhandle by Mon night with
warmer temps elsewhere). The question mark is Yakutat. Their
temperatures are expected to remain near to above freezing Sun
night with a rain/snow mix and snow accumulations possibly
reaching 4 inches. However a change of temperature of only a few
degrees could turn this to all rain with no snow accumulation, or
all snow with significant snow accumulations possible. No really
clear signal either way at the moment though mos temperatures and
ensemble guidance trending toward the warmer side of things, but
still with some snow accumulation to start. Forecast confidence
here is rather low as a result. Forecast changes were rather minor
with most focusing on lowering temps for the north this evening
and refining ptype on Sun night into Mon.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday night/...An upper level ridge
will be shifting east under the influence of a weakening
southwesterly jet. The jet will begin to re-orient by Tuesday
morning as an upstream upper trough digs well south of 50N and
shifts east over the Alaskan Peninsula. As this happens, the
EASTPAC high will build north over the far southeastern Gulf and
expand into central British Columbia by Wednesday morning. The
surface high will bring with it a substantially warmer low level
airmass by mid week which will be most prominent over the southern
half of the Panhandle. Look for daytime highs to reach the mid 50s
for locations south of Sumner Strait on Wednesday. These
conditions should expand north to Frederick Sound by Thursday.
Locations farther north will warm up also as we go through the
upcoming week, but not as much as the far southern zones.

The warming temperatures will not coincide with dry conditions, at
least at first. A front will be moving across the northern two
thirds of the Panhandle on Monday morning. Cold low level air left
over from Sunday night will result in more snow on Monday
morning, but the rain/snow line will retreat quickly to the north
as the warmer airmass moves in from the south. Overnight lows
Monday night will see the rain/snow line shift south somewhat, but
it will surge north again on Tuesday as precipitation from the
front continues. What is left of this first front will be absorbed
by rapidly moving second front Wednesday afternoon/evening. The
associated parent low will remain over the western Gulf and upper
level steering will keep this front focused over the northeast
Gulf Coast from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

Long range models are indicating a drying trend from south to
north beginning over the far southern zones by Tuesday afternoon.
By late Wednesday night, all of Southeast Alaska should be dry and
remain so through at least Friday night. -FCF

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-041>043-051.

&&

EAL/Fritsch

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