Small Craft Advisory 218, NWS Juneau, AK

826 
FZAK51 PAJK 110021
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-111430-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Low pressure in BC exits E Sat evening. High pressure
strengthens Sat night in the Canadian Yukon as a ridge builds
over the SE gulf then exits early Sun. A weather front lifts NE
into  the eastern gulf through Sun morning. A gale force front
follows  into the central gulf Mon. 

$$

PKZ011-111430-
Glacier Bay-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas building
to 3 ft late. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-111430-
Northern Lynn Canal-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing. Gusts to 40 kt early. Seas 5
ft early, then subsiding.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Snow
in the evening, then snow and rain late. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-111430-
Southern Lynn Canal-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 5 ft in the 
evening then subsiding. Snow showers early. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft in
the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
and snow late. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-111430-
Icy Strait-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft early in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Snow showers early. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow late. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-111430-
Cross Sound-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing, then becoming E 10 kt. Seas 
7 ft. Snow showers early. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-111430-
Stephens Passage-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt. Seas 5 ft early then 2
ft or less. Snow showers in the evening. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-111430-
Northern Chatham Strait-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft early then 2 ft 
or less. Snow showers early. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-111430-
Southern Chatham Strait-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing. Seas 5 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 4 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-111430-
Frederick Sound-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt early then diminishing. Seas 4 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the evening.
.SUN...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-111430-
Sumner Strait-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 4 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-111430-
Clarence Strait-
421 PM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 
ft late. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...Weakening surface low and a trough of lower
pressure persisting along the panhandle. A second low in Central
British Columbia has a link of weaker low pressure between them.
The deformation band early today has moved north past Juneau and
the heavy snow lasted few hours and moved on.

The residual low in the gulf will move southeast tonight weakening
into a trough continuing from south of Yakutat to was of Prince
of Wales Island. Showers in the 30 to 60 percent measurable range
will be moving onshore the coastal areas tonight. Meanwhile
showers along the coast mountains are drifting northward from
Ketchikan to around Wrangell. The remaining through and
showers/moisture hanging around the trough will get moved inland
Saturday with a broad ridge of higher pressure moves across the
gulf ahead of the next system moving into the western half of the
gulf on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon and evening a warm frontal type feature will
lift NE to the Yakutat zone. The main frontal band with access to
subtropical moisture will move in Monday. It will also start to
usher warmer low level temperature to the eastern gulf and
panhandle. At the present it looks as if the front will have slow
eastward movement on it so by late Monday night the front arcs
from the Northeast gulf to near Cross Sound and then back SW
towards the North Pacific.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday night/ As of Thursday
evening. This extended range forecast begins with an upper ridge
over the central Gulf shifting east. This will put Southeast
Alaska under the warm side of the jet stream for the first time in
quite a while and the latest model data indicates that we will
remain there for most, if not all, of the upcoming long range
forecast. Daytime highs and overnight lows will become warmer
through the week with a chance that some parts of the Panhandle
will finally see temps getting up into the 50s by mid to late next
week.

On Sunday, a low in the Bering Sea will be pushing a front across
the Gulf from the west. Models have slowed down the easterly
progress of this system, but when it finally arrives over the
northeast Gulf Coast, it could result in heavy snow for the
Yakutat area and non-trivial accumulations along, and north of,
the Icy Strait corridor as well as Petersburg. As warmer low level
air advects in from the south, temperatures will begin to rise
(as discussed above) and the precipitation type will gradually
involve more rain and less snow, apart from elevated sites. It is
quite possible that the rain could become heavy at times. Even as
this front dissipates, another will be moving in rapidly from the
southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Waves along this second
front are looking like they will keep the bulk of the
precipitation focused over the northeast Gulf Coast through
Thursday afternoon. Long range models are hinting at a drying
trend as we head into next weekend. Let's remain hopeful for that.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>033-041>043-051-052.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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