Small Craft Advisory 209, NWS Juneau, AK

278 
FZAK51 PAJK 071225
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-080345-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
An area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf will weaken as it 
tracks SE Wed. A gale force low and front will move into the AK 
Gulf Thu. The front will move E across the Panhandle Thu while the
low lingers in the NE gulf through Fri. 

$$

PKZ011-080345-
Glacier Bay-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas building to
3 ft late. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft then
2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-080345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt becoming S 10 kt. Seas 6 ft then 2 ft or 
less.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-080345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow in the 
morning. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-080345-
Icy Strait-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas building to
3 ft late. 
.THU...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow in the 
morning. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-080345-
Cross Sound-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow in the morning.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-080345-
Stephens Passage-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Highest winds and seas from Young Bay
northward.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Snow in the morning, then rain in the 
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-080345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-080345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft, 
except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 18 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-080345-
Frederick Sound-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-080345-
Sumner Strait-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Near ocean
entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 13 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-080345-
Clarence Strait-
425 AM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to
12 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 13 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

131 
FZAK51 PAJK 072339
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-081730-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A storm force low and front will move into the AK Gulf Thu. The
front will move E across the Panhandle Thu while the low lingers
in the NE gulf through Fri.  

$$

PKZ011-081730-
Glacier Bay-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain
and snow. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then
2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-081730-
Northern Lynn Canal-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming N late. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-081730-
Southern Lynn Canal-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow in the 
morning. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N late. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 
5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-081730-
Icy Strait-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas 
building to 3 ft late. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-081730-
Cross Sound-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-081730-
Stephens Passage-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SE late. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 
to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow in the morning, then rain in the 
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. North of Taku Inlet, SE wind
20 kt becoming NE late. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-081730-
Northern Chatham Strait-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE late. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-081730-
Southern Chatham Strait-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming S late. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft, except
12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 17 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 16 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 13 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-081730-
Frederick Sound-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-081730-
Sumner Strait-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S late. Seas 6 ft, except
14 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 11 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-081730-
Clarence Strait-
339 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 12 ft in 
the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKDT Tue Apr 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tuesdays forecast is a tale of two lows, the first is
on its way out this evening and the second is poised to impact the
area on Friday.

The first low over the northern gulf is the remains of the system
that moved into Western Canada Monday. This low will weaken and move
slowly southeast tonight and dissipate over the south central
panhandle early Wednesday. As the low moves southeast, showers will
be tapering off and ending from the north-northwest to
south-southwest.

Brief clearing skies are expected after the low while the surface
ridge axis and the small ridge aloft transitions eastward across the
gulf and panhandle Wednesday and Wednesday night. With the northern
gulf seeing clearing tonight fog could develop, though think it will
probably frost out. Wednesday the fog may redevelop for some of the
south central panhandle.

The models are in generally good agreement that a strong springtime
storm will move out of the southern portion of the Alaskan mainland
and deepen into the lower 980s mb. The various solutions are within
about 100 nm of each other. However the wind directions and speeds
through the panhandle fluctuate substantially depending on the exact
location of the features. Winds over the outer coastal waters will
blow 35 to 45 kt as the front moves through. The front will continue
through the panhandle Thursday afternoon and evening with 30 to
locally 40 kts winds for the inner channels. Communities along the
coasts may gust to around 40 mph as the system moves through.

The precipitation expected from this front looks like it will be
between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of water. Flooding concerns are low other
than nuisance from drainage issues. However the rain on the snow
pack aloft may make it more unstable and more susceptible to slide.
Also some the northern portion of the panhandle is likely to have
some cooler air still trapped in the valleys and channels. As a
result we continue monitoring the threat of accumulations of snow
with its passage. Early estimates show the potential for 2 to 4
inches in the north.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday/ As of 10pm Monday. The big
story continues to be the approaching Thursday and Friday system.
This system still looks like it has the potential to bring
accumulating snow to the northern panhandle and Icy Strait
Corridor, but pinning down exact details remains a challenge.
Notably enough, both operational and ensemble suites have
continued to differ from run to run on the track of the system. It
now looks increasingly likely that the low will slide off to the
South along the outer coast. This will set up the conditions for a
battle between the colder air wrapping in behind the low, and the
WAA moving up from the South. GFS and NAM runs both indicate that
this WAA should be sufficient to force a transition to rain or to
a rain snow mix across much of the area on Thursday. Given the
lateness of the season, am currently leaning towards this
solution, which would limit snow totals substantially. However,
the specter of snow melt cooling remains present, and the extent
of any possible switchover will depend on whether or not the Warm
Air Advection can make it down to the surface. For the time being,
have some minor snow accumulations across the Icy Strait Corridor
and Yakutat, with more substantial accumulations in the northern
panhandle. Minor shifts in the track of the low and the
temperatures across the area will mean the difference between
receiving a late season wintry blast or additional rainfall. The
system will also likely bring breezy conditions throughout the
area, and all of these elements will need to be closely monitored
as more data becomes available.

The system will likely remain around the area for some time before
sliding S and then moving across the central Panhandle. There is
a possibility of a brief period of clearing for Saturday should
the system depart through Friday night as the Euro depicts. On the
other hand, the GFS ensemble still shows a slower moving trough
aloft resulting in the low slowing down over the Gulf for a time.
Should this scenario play out, it is entirely possible that the
system may not depart until Sunday, ahead of another approaching
system which models have begun to depict.

Due to model inconsistencies, there is lower forecast confidence
overall, with snow accumulation totals and the exact track of the
Thursday low remaining the primary areas of concern.

&&

.MARINE...Winds for the most part under small craft levels
tonight with exception of a northerly gale force developing through
Lynn Canal tonight and early Wednesday. A small craft will run
south through Chatham Strait past Point Gardner for Wednesday
morning. The next incoming system will be even more impressive.
35 to 45 kt winds ahead of the front beginning early Thursday
morning. The front will sweep through the panhandle With 30 to 40
kt winds expected in the inner channels from Icy Strait southward,
only Lynn Canal and Glacier Bay should have sub 25 kt winds
during the day.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031>033-041>043.

&&

Bezenek/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau