Small Craft Advisory 206, NWS Juneau, AK

189 
FZAK51 PAJK 051230
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-060345-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
An area of low pressure will linger over the NE Gulf 
through Tuesday and then weaken as it tracks SE through 
Wednesday.

$$

PKZ011-060345-
Glacier Bay-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt in the morning, diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 
4 ft then subsiding. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Seas building to 4
ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-060345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft or less late. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-060345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt in the morning, diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 
5 ft then subsiding. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft
late. Rain showers late. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas building to 5
ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-060345-
Icy Strait-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt, except SW 20 kt west of Point Adolphus. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming NE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-060345-
Cross Sound-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 
7 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-060345-
Stephens Passage-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers late. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt late. Seas 3 
ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-060345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt. Seas building to 4 
ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 

$$

PKZ033-060345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 

$$

PKZ034-060345-
Frederick Sound-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 

$$

PKZ035-060345-
Sumner Strait-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 

$$

PKZ036-060345-
Clarence Strait-
430 AM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft
building to 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

089 
FZAK51 PAJK 052338
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-061730-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
An area of low pressure will linger over the NE Gulf through
Tuesday and then weaken as it tracks SE through Wednesday.
Outlook. A gale force low and front will move into the AK Gulf
Thursday. 

$$

PKZ011-061730-
Glacier Bay-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Snow and rain showers late. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-061730-
Northern Lynn Canal-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft.
Rain and snow showers. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers in the morning.
Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 30 kt late. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft late. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-061730-
Southern Lynn Canal-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
Snow showers late. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers
in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 30 kt late. Seas
building to 6 ft late. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-061730-
Icy Strait-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers late. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt late. Seas building to
3 ft late. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-061730-
Cross Sound-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 8 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-061730-
Stephens Passage-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
Snow showers late. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers
in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-061730-
Northern Chatham Strait-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers late. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. 
Seas building to 4 ft late. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-061730-
Southern Chatham Strait-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. Snow.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-061730-
Frederick Sound-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt subsiding. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-061730-
Sumner Strait-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers early in the
evening. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt subsiding. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. Rain showers 
in the evening. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-061730-
Clarence Strait-
338 PM AKDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft
building to 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday/A not particularly strong, but
definitely geographically extensive long-wave trough with
subtropical ties leans into the Gulf of Alaska tonight and into
Southeast Alaska Monday. With this in mind, rain, yes, light
liquid rain spreads eastward and southward through tonight. A
complimentary surface ridge to the east across the Inner Channels
supports strong southerly winds into Skagway and Haines where
temperatures have reached the lower 40s. Small craft advisory
southerlies blow through Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, and
northern Chatham most of the night into Monday. Likewise we think
westerlies will be pronounced through Cross Sound tonight, but
confidence here is not as strong. Elsewhere across the north, this
has been a breezy if a little wet Easter and those breezes are
expected to continue through much of Monday ahead of a frontal
passage Monday night. Some snow mixed in with the rain this
morning, but accumulations have been zero if any.

Rain rates increase through the night as a wave adds a little
deeper moisture to the front across the Panhandle. Rain morphs
into showers by Monday as southerlies continue. Instability is not
particularly strong on Monday, but as the warmer tongue of air
exits southeast, we went ahead and moved showers up by 12 hours.

Monday night, a sharper wave arrives into the gulf from the
Bering Sea and brings with it another lobe of chilly air with 850
temperatures between -7 and -10 C, depending on the solution you
believe. This should support showers changing to snow late Monday
night into Tuesday morning at sea level locations. We have
lowered temperatures by a couple of degrees, especially along the
coast Tuesday morning. But amounts should be light, as moisture
will be more starved from a a Bering trajectory than the previous
system arriving from the open Pacific. Tuesday, a weak wave
appears to aim at the south enhancing showers in the southern and
central Panhandle, but this is not all that clear at this point.
Right now, it is more to keep showers likely as opposed to the
chance across the north.

Springtime marginal temperatures continue with highs around 40
across most areas and lows in the mid to high 30s Monday morning.
Temperatures will definitely be cooler Monday night and Tuesday
night with lows around 30. Snow accumulations are only a slight
concern for White Pass and other higher elevations, with a couple
of inches tonight and an inch each Monday, Monday night, and
Tuesday.

Forecast changes were minimal, and confidence is generally good.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Saturday/ As of 10pm
Saturday. Low pressure meandering over the NE gulf for the first
half of the extended period will keep showers in the forecast most
days. Upper level CAA wrapping around the low from northern
Alaska will keep the potential for snow going, particularly during
the overnight hours. As the low eventually shifts away SE toward
the end of the week, winds through the inside waters will increase
out of the north and POP should diminish from north to south.

Models have differed from run to run on the strength and track of
the gulf low, and the latest runs are no different. The ECMWF has
been the most consistent and that, along with guidance from WPC
were similar enough to the forecast produced yesterday to only
make minor changes.

Some models are still showing another quick moving low track
across the gulf from the west on Thursday. This would give
another resurgence of moisture to the area before shifting off to
the SE a bit later (Saturday instead of Friday). Opted to
increase POP back up to chance across the northern panhandle on
Thursday to account for this.

Due to model inconsistencies, updates to the extended forecast
were smaller and there is lower forecast confidence overall.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031-032-041>043-051-052.

&&

JWA/Ferrin

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