Small Craft Advisory 175, NWS Juneau, AK

349 
FZAK51 PAJK 211123
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-220315-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening low in the NE Gulf moves towards Cross Sound through
Sunday. Then a high pressure ridge tracks over the gulf through
Monday. 

$$

PKZ011-220315-
Glacier Bay-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft early in the morning
then 2 ft or less. Snow and rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the
evening. Snow showers. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the
morning. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-220315-
Northern Lynn Canal-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 45 kt early in the morning. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Snow showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain showers in the
evening, then snow showers late. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
in the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-220315-
Southern Lynn Canal-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain showers in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt . Seas 2 ft or less. Snow and rain
showers. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Snow showers in the morning. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-220315-
Icy Strait-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow and rain showers.
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers in the
morning. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-220315-
Cross Sound-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the afternoon. Snow showers early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NW late. Seas 9 ft. SW swell.
Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain and snow showers 
in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-220315-
Stephens Passage-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow 
showers in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers late. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-220315-
Northern Chatham Strait-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers in the morning. 
Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-220315-
Southern Chatham Strait-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 10 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-220315-
Frederick Sound-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow 
showers in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-220315-
Sumner Strait-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near 
ocean entrances. Snow and rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-220315-
Clarence Strait-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances,
seas 8 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

345 
FZAK51 PAJK 220016
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-221745-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening low in the NE Gulf moves towards Cross Sound through
Sunday night. High pressure builds over the gulf through Monday.
Another front moves east across the gulf Monday night.  

$$

PKZ011-221745-
Glacier Bay-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...Light winds becoming NW 15 kt late. Seas building
to 3 ft late. Snow and rain late. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain and snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-221745-
Northern Lynn Canal-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 3 ft in 
the morning then 2 ft or less.
.MON NIGHT...N wind becoming 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft late.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-221745-
Southern Lynn Canal-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 
ft or less. Rain showers and snow showers late. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft or 
less. Rain and snow showers in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind becoming 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
Rain and snow late. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-221745-
Icy Strait-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain and snow showers in 
the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow with rain
late. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-221745-
Cross Sound-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
Rain showers and snow showers in the evening. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. SW
swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-221745-
Stephens Passage-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Snow showers in the evening. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
and snow late. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-221745-
Northern Chatham Strait-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers early
in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.MON NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas building
to 3 ft late. Rain and snow late. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-221745-
Southern Chatham Strait-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances,
seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas building
to 4 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. Rain late. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-221745-
Frederick Sound-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
and snow late. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-221745-
Sumner Strait-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Near ocean 
entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
late. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-221745-
Clarence Strait-
416 PM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers early in the 
evening. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...The next snow producer has begun to work its way
into the panhandle. Cloud cover has rebuilt across SE Alaska and
snow has already begun to fall in parts of the area. The track of
the system's associated low has shifted slightly northward, but
the northern panhandle should still stay on the cold side of the
low. This will help keep a majority of precipitation from the Icy
Strait Corridor northward snow through the night. Further south,
the situation becomes more complex. The shift in the low track
could result in more warm S flow in the central panhandle. While
the advisory was kept for Petersburg and Kake, these areas could
receive lower snow totals than anticipated if they get an early
changeover to rain. The Juneau area still has the best chance to
get higher snowfall rates and stay cold enough with N-NE outflow
from Taku Inlet and Lynn Canal, and so continue to have the
warning out for 5-8" of accumulation. In addition, winter weather
advisories are out for the Icy Strait Corridor, Petersburg,
Wrangell, and Kake. Gusty winds will also arrive with the front
causing blowing snow as well as breezy conditions across much of
the area. Small craft advisories are posted for many of the inner
channels, with gale force winds expected in the outer coastal
waters.

How the system weakens through Sunday has some uncertainty due to
model spread. But most of the frontal moisture shifts off to the
SE and expect a transition to showers with breaks developing
through the late afternoon. A weak remnant low over the Mt.
Fairweather region will likely keep showers going longer across
the north Sunday night. Skagway and the Klondike Highway could see
some appreciable snow accumulations from these showers late
Sunday and Sunday night.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday as of 10 PM Friday/ The
extended range forecast begins with a weak upper low situated over
the eastern Gulf and tracking east. To the south, a 130 kt jet
will push the low along and keep southeast Alaska on the cold side
of the jet. As the week progresses, upper flow remains relatively
zonal until Tuesday morning. At that time, a more amplified
pattern moves into the forecast area with an upper ridge over the
Panhandle and a sharp, positively tilted trough upstream over
Kodiak and the far western Gulf. The trough passes over the
Panhandle Tuesday night, being pushed along by a broad
northwesterly jet. Another upper ridge moves over us by Thursday
morning, leaving Southeast Alaska on the warm side of the jet at
least for a little while. By the weekend, yet another trough moves
through the gulf and over the panhandle.

At the surface, the long range forecast begins with a weak area of
low pressure over the northeast gulf coast keeping showers over
the northern panhandle. By Tuesday morning, the next well
organized front will arrive over Southeast Alaska from the west.
This system will be just in the process of occluding as it arrives
over the Panhandle and the triple point will be located over the
far southern Panhandle, meaning that this will be a true warm
frontal passage over the inner channels. Model guidance has came
into better agreement that the parent low will track through the
central panhandle Tuesday afternoon. This system will bring deep
southern moisture into the panhandle causing moderate to heavy
rain rates at times across the southern panhandle. The northern
panhandle and areas along the Icy Strait corridor will be on the
north side of low keeping chances of snow as the system moves
through. By Wednesday the surface low will head south out of the
forecast area as a surface high builds in the central gulf. This
looks to offer a good break in precipitation Wednesday as weak
offshore flow takes over. Some areas across the panhandle could
even see some sunshine, best chances across the northern panhandle
where the strongest northerly flow will be.

Beyond this time, the surface high will steer midlevel
disturbances over the far northern Gulf, and then southeast over
the Panhandle. Thursday model guidance begins to degrade with the
GFS keeping the panhandle dry and the ECMWF showing a deepening
low in the northeast gulf coast. By Saturday, confidence increases
while models come back into alignment on the next significant
feature. Once again another surface low develops in the northern
gulf bringing widespread precipitation across the panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ020>022-
     026.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ027-028.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for
     AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ035-036-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>034-041-042-053.

&&

GFS/CC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau