Small Craft Advisory 171, NWS Juneau, AK

340 
FZAK53 PAJK 201135
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 AM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-210545-
Yakutat Bay-
335 AM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to
45 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to 40 kt
in the morning. Seas 6 ft. SW swell in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

038 
FZAK53 PAJK 202332
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-211745-
Yakutat Bay-
332 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to
45 kt late. Seas 6 ft. SW swell late. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to 40 kt
in the morning. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

641 
FZAK53 PAJK 211123
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-220530-
Yakutat Bay-
323 AM AKDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to 45 kt
early in the morning. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
248 PM AKDT Fri Mar 19 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday/ The frontal band that moved through
the northern panhandle this morning has transitioned to the
southern half of the panhandle. Reported snow accumulations across
the north ranged from around 1 inch near Haines Customs to a
little over 6 inches at Pelican. The north is now dealing with
snow showers in the wake of the front coming in from the gulf.
These showers have been somewhat intense with visibilities
dropping to about a 1/2 mile at times, but they also have been
open cell in nature and move through rather quickly. Most areas of
the northern panhandle have been seeing more breaks in the clouds
rather then the showers as a result, and snow accumulations have
been light or its too warm for it to stick based on webcams.

Showers will linger through tonight especially in the southern
panhandle as what is left of the current system weakens and moves
off to the east. We get a break in the weather for late Fri night
and Sat morning and then the next front starts moving in for Sat
afternoon with more precip (rain and snow) and wind (gale for
northern gulf, small craft for other areas of the gulf and some
inner channel areas). Atmosphere over the panhandle looks cold
enough (850 mb temps below -6c initially, and 1000-850 mb
thicknesses below 1290) for precip to start as snow again for most
areas but southern areas will likely mix back to rain early on.
For the north, the low will be weakening as it comes in and will
be tracking across the central panhandle so a mix with rain north
of Angoon is unlikely Sat night. So expect accumulating snow for
the north Sat night with the highest accumulations (around 2 to 4
inches or possibly higher) likely along the Icy strait corridor
including Juneau. Precipitation and winds will begin to diminish
into Sunday as the system weakens and most inland.

Not many changes to the forecast overall as models in decent
agreement on timing and placement of features. Some uncertainly on
wind directions Fri evening (mainly in the Southern panhandle) and
on snow amounts for Sat night (snow amounts could end up being
higher and advisories may be needed).

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday night/...This extended range
forecast begins with a weak upper low situated over the eastern
Gulf and tracking east. To the south, a 150 kt jet will push the
low along and keep southeast Alaska on the cold side of the jet.
As the week progresses, upper flow remains relatively zonal until
Tuesday morning. At that time, a more amplified pattern moves
into the forecast area, with an upper ridge over the Panhandle and
a sharp, positively tilted trough upstream over Kodiak and the
far western Gulf. The trough passes over the Panhandle Tuesday
night, being pushed along by a broad northwesterly jet. By
Thursday afternoon, the jet over Southeast Alaska become very
zonal, but only temporarily. Another upper ridge moves over us by
Saturday morning, leaving Southeast Alaska on the warm side of the
jet at least for a little while.

At the surface, the long range forecast begins with an occluded
front draped over the Panhandle and emanating from a weakening
gale force low over the northeast Gulf. The front will push
through by late Sunday evening, but a mid level disturbance will
keep showers going over at least the northern half of the
Panhandle. By Tuesday morning, the next well organized front will
arrive over Southeast Alaska from the west. This system will be
just in the process of occluding as it arrives over the Panhandle
and the triple point will be located over the far southern
Panhandle, meaning that this will be a true warm frontal passage
over the inner channels. Model guidance this far out is divergent
on strength and track of the parent low, but landfall of the low
itself over the Panhandle is possible based on the EC and Canadian
solutions. Beyond that time, a surface high well to the south
will steer midlevel disturbances over the far northern Gulf, and
then southeast over the Panhandle. Stated differently, there are
no clear breaks in a generally wet/snowy pattern for the upcoming
week. -Fritsch/Cravens

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043-051-053.

&&

EAL/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
102 PM AKDT FRI MAR 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PELICAN                 57.96N 136.23W
03/19/2021  M6.2 INCH        HOONAH-ANGOON      AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6.2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
            8AM AKDT IN PELICAN. STILL SNOWING AT TIME
            OF OBSERVATION.

&&

GFS