Small Craft Advisory 150, NWS Juneau, AK

417 
FZAK52 PAJK 111642 AAA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-120645-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A surface low tracks from Cordova southeast towards  the
Panhandle. It remains offshore on Friday resulting in strong 
offshore and northerly winds in the northern Panhandle. On 
Saturday, a low approaches the southern Panhandle.  

$$

PKZ041-120645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-120645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-120645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-120645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-120645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

914 
FZAK52 PAJK 120033
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-121845-
333 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A surface low in the NE Gulf remains offshore while tracking
south through Friday reaching the southern Panhandle Saturday.
Strong offshore and northerly winds in the northern Panhandle
increase Friday into Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-121845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
333 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-121845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
333 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 10 ft. W
swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-121845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
333 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-121845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
333 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. Rain showers in 
the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-121845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
333 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell in the evening.
Snow showers in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the
evening. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

539 
FZAK52 PAJK 121233
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-130645-
333 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A surface low in the NE Gulf remains offshore while tracking
south through Friday reaching the southern Panhandle Saturday. 
Strong offshore and northerly winds in the northern Panhandle 
increase Friday into Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-130645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
333 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-130645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
333 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-130645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
333 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-130645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
333 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-130645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
333 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding late. Freezing spray
late.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming E gale to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

174 
FZAK52 PAJK 122308
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
208 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-131715-
208 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A surface low in the NE Gulf decays through Friday night while
another low moves east across the Dixon Entrance  through
Saturday morning. Strong offshore and northerly winds in the 
northern Panhandle increase Friday into Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-131715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
208 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas 10 ft. W
swell. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-131715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
208 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell in
the evening. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-131715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
208 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell
in the evening. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow with rain
showers. 
.MON...SW gale to 35 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-131715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
208 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft late. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow with rain
showers. 
.MON...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-131715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
208 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the evening.
Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow with rain
showers. 
.MON...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

026 
FZAK52 PAJK 131247
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140700-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A surface high in interior Canada and an opposing surface low 
south of the Panhandle results in a strong offshore flow and 
northerly winds in the northern Panhandle Saturday. A surface low 
develops near Cordova on Sunday and lingers west of Yakutat. 

$$

PKZ041-140700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding late. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 5 ft late. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas
9 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray early in the 
morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain with snow. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...Visibilities from snow less than a mile appeared in
Yakutat just after noon today. Phone calls to spotters yielded a
very dry snow, blowing around easily in the wind. With this
information as well as what we might describe as over-selling of
melted QPF from various solutions, we have elected to keep the
advisory. However, we did increase snow amounts by another couple
of inches through 6 AM Thursday morning.

Farther east, ridging ahead of the system propelled small craft
advisories through Lynn Canal. We were somewhat doubting guidance
and their strong winds for Skagway, but decided to keep it as
Skagway gusts developed around mid-day. Some of our concerns with
such strong southerly flow have eased as presumed wet bulb
temperatures have remained quite low and very supportive of snow.
With lower temperatures this afternoon, we nudged upwards some
accumulations for Gustavus, Pelican, and Hoonah while still
keeping them below advisory level. But all in all, Juneau's
forecast looks solid at this time, so no changes needed for the
warning in place.

Farther south, a more complicated story emerges. The front
responsible for snow in the north will push into Canada beyond the
Coast Mountains in the north. Yet over the south, it will slow to
a crawl. This boundary then provides a baraclinic zone, or a high
speed railway on which other waves will choo-choo north. One such
wave pushes into the Dixon Entrance area sometime on Thursday. A
winter storm watch was issued for Prince of Wales and Ketchikan
area for Thursday afternoon/evening. New guidance has suggested
this wave and its lobe of moisture might come in farther east,
therefore threatening to miss much of Prince of Wales Island.
Therefore, confidence has dropped here. However, our experience in
how guidance wants to bobble these waves around both left and
right prevent us from pulling the watch, or upgrading it. What we
did do is to delay it until early evening and extend the end-time
to 18Z Friday (around 9 AM local time). Thicknesses lower then and
QPF numbers look higher at this time now. Likewise, we elected to
place Hyder under a winter storm watch starting at 6 PM Thursday,
extending to noon on Friday for 8 to 12 inches of new snow. Should
the wave come in farther east, Petersburg and Wrangell snow
forecasts could increase, but we indicate only 2 to 4 inches
Thursday night at this time.

Beyond this time period, an upper low in the gulf begins to trek
southeast and begins pulling some colder, drier air from Mainland
Alaska back into the Panhandle. By early weekend, we are clearly
looking at a wind shift to the north across the region. With
newly advertised positive gradients (read: northerly), we decided
to increase northerlies in Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage,
especially from Friday afternoon into early Saturday. We also
hinted at the possibility of strong outflow winds in Skagway as
well as Downtown Juneau.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the northern Panhandle snow
tonight, but not as high for the southern Panhandle event.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday/Long
term forecast period begins with a weakening low in the northeast
Gulf that will drift south. A deep trough aloft will drive coder
temps south with guidance still supporting very cold 850mb temps
across the panhandle. Temperatures this weekend will continue to
be unseasonably cold for March and with this comes the chance for
snow as moisture gets pushed over the region by a front associated
with the low. The bulk of this looks to impact the southern
panhandle but warming temperatures on Friday should turn precip
over to rain for most locations during the day. This does not
however rule out the possibility that some locations could pick up
a few inches of snow in locations that begin the event below
freezing before the changeover. Some models suggest that some of
this moisture could reach into the northern reaches of the
panhandle, but confidence on just how far north it will extend is
still fairly low. What is known for the northern panhandle is that
after Friday, temperatures in most all locations from about the
Icy Strait corridor and north will remain cold enough that if any
precip were to occur, it should be as snow for the duration of
the weekend as high pressure builds to the north.

Chances for precip drop Saturday and almost all lingering showers
should be gone by Sunday as outflow around the high dries things
out again. By Monday, another system begins to move in on the
region from the west which will turn flow to the south which
should lead to a noticeable difference in the high temperatures
for the northern panhandle. Timing of this system is still
questionable which creates p-type issues with the forecast as most
locations will still be cold enough Monday morning that if precip
were to begin early enough it will probably be as snow. After the
initial front passes through, showers remain a possibility for
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     for AKZ027>029.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ017-019.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Thursday evening
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>034-041>043-053.

&&

JWA/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1041 PM AKST WED MAR 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 E YAKUTAT             59.55N 139.71W
03/10/2021  M5.8 INCH        YAKUTAT            AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STARTED DURING THE 11 AM HOUR AND WAS STILL
            SNOWING AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

GJS