Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Juneau, AK

719 
FZAK51 PAJK 071829 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-080330-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low and associated gale force front will move north across the
central gulf through Thursday. Another low developing off the
coast of Haida Gwaii Thursday night will weaken to a trough as
it tracks northward over the panhandle Friday. 

$$

PKZ011-080330-
Glacier Bay-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-080330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow 
showers. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers 
and snow showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-080330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in 
the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers in the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-080330-
Icy Strait-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-080330-
Cross Sound-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. Rain showers in
the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SE swell. Showers in the
afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-080330-
Stephens Passage-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Gusts to 45 
kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE late. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas
4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the morning. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-080330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
in the evening. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-080330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 15 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft, 
except 15 ft near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft, except 14 ft near ocean entrances. 
Rain showers in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-080330-
Frederick Sound-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Gusts to 45 kt. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
in the evening. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-080330-
Sumner Strait-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 9 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft
near ocean entrances.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft, 
except 8 ft near ocean entrances.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt in the evening becoming E 20 kt. Gusts
to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-080330-
Clarence Strait-
930 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt in the morning, diminishing to 30 kt. Seas
7 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt late. Out of interior
passes, gusts to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 9 ft near 
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

473 
FZAK51 PAJK 080021
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-081715-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A developing low off the coast of Haida Gwaii will track northward
toward Prince of Wales Island by Friday morning. The low is expected
to weaken to a trough as it continues northward along the coast 
Friday afternoon. 


$$

PKZ011-081715-
Glacier Bay-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N late. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers
in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the 
evening. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-081715-
Northern Lynn Canal-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers
early in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-081715-
Southern Lynn Canal-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers 
early in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the 
evening. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-081715-
Icy Strait-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-081715-
Cross Sound-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SE swell. Rain showers in
the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E late. Seas 10 ft. S
swell. Rain showers in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-081715-
Stephens Passage-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE late. Seas 5 ft. Rain 
showers early in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-081715-
Northern Chatham Strait-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N late. Gusts to 35 kt in the 
evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-081715-
Southern Chatham Strait-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 16 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances,
seas 17 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
12 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except
14 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft,
except 18 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-081715-
Frederick Sound-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-081715-
Sumner Strait-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft
near ocean entrances.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 11 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-081715-
Clarence Strait-
321 PM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft, except 15 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKST Wed Jan 6 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Main weather story today is
the onshore flow with showers across the panhandle and even some
thunderstorms showing up along the outer coast. The thunderstorm
activity has diminished in frequency this afternoon with about
three detected cloud to ground strikes per hour on average on
lightning detection. There is likely one more round of possible
thunderstorm activity this evening as another band of stronger
showers is moving onshore right now. the lightning will likely
mostly be found along the outer coast for the most part as the
showers get some additional lift from initial contact with
terrain. Expect the possibility for thunderstorms to diminish into
late tonight as the colder air aloft moves into Canada taking its
more unstable atmosphere with it.

Current weather is from a low over by Kodiak Island that is
churning S to SW flow into the area. That low weakens as it moves
into SW Alaska tonight only to be replaced by another low on a
similar track on Thu with its associated front slamming into the
panhandle. Expect another round of wind and mostly rain as the
front moves through. Gale warnings are up for most of the gulf and
southern inner channels, and gusts to 40 mph will be likely for
the southern land areas as well Thu. Farther north, the Haines and
Klondike Highways may be under the gun for more snow, especially
at higher elevations, Thu afternoon into Thu night. Some
uncertainty on temperatures and precip amounts for the Haines
Highway as temperatures (especially near Haines) will be at or
just above freezing, and the mid to western part of the Chilkat
Valley may get rain shadowed. Snow amounts look to range anywhere
from around 4 to 6 inches near Haines Customs and White Pass to
near zero at sea level. Decided to issue a winter weather advisory
for the highways from 9 am Thu to midnight Thu night as a result.
Although current temps along the Haines Highway are also in the
mid 30s right now and light e winds are expected to continue
there. There is the possibility that the e winds could keep the
valley warm enough that the precip will be all rain as well, but
the snow scenario looks more likely at this time.

Meanwhile the parade of systems continues with yet another low
coming up from the south on Fri. There is lots of uncertainty with
this system as guidance has it anywhere from Vancouver Island to
Yakutat around 0z Sat. As a result the forecast for Fri afternoon
could be anywhere from rainy and windy to a drier and much less
windy forecast. We decided to go the middle of the road with the
forecast and jump on the Canadian and GFS version of events that
has the low heading up the coast near Prince of Wales around Fri
afternoon. The wind forecast will need to be watched as with the
low passing so close to the coast some areas may see some rather
gusty winds as a result. Further refinements to the forecast will
be made as we get closer to this event.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday as of 10 PM Tuesday/ Active
weather pattern continues across the AK Gulf and Panhandle
through the long range. Upper level wave pattern keeping
trough/lows over the Aleutians/Gulf with ridging to the west,
supporting strong system development and these systems lifting
over the east-central Gulf. Prolonged onshore moisture fetch is
expected to fuel a threat of heavy precipitation for southeast
Alaska along with strong winds and hazardous marine conditions.
This pattern with overall SE flow also increasingly favors above
normal temperatures. Position of rain/snow line right now looks to
be at or north of the Icy Strait corridor. While ensembles are in
general agreement with the mid/upper level pattern still
differences on surface timing and position. Even larger spread
with operational models.

Friday will be transition with Thursday upper low pulling to the
NW before new circulation possibly moves into the SE Gulf.
Northerly flow initially bringing down temps to near normal
before the much stronger systems for the weekend. But precip
bands looks to be further to the west so limited QPF/snow on
Friday. By Saturday into Sunday deep low moves up from the N
Pacific with surface low pressure as low as 970 mb. High winds and
heavy rain for most locations, except looking at snow for the far
northern panhandle. Less certainty beyond the weekend.

Nudged toward operational GFS/NAM for Friday then kept with WPC
for the remainder of the long range as it utilized ensembles
solution. Regarding overall pattern, confidence is above average
but details on surface features, especially preciptiation type
and amounts, is below average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ026-027.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-033-035-053.

&&

EAL/PRB

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