Small Craft Advisory 144, NWS Juneau, AK

058 
FZAK52 PAJK 081249
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-090700-
349 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Northerly outflow winds continue through Monday as a low moves
south of Haida Gwaii. Winds will decrease Monday  night as the
low continues tracking south and east.  

$$

PKZ041-090700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
349 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming W. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-090700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
349 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft building to
12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-090700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
349 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to
16 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-090700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
349 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 10 ft building to
19 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-090700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
349 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming W gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft
building to 20 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

608 
FZAK52 PAJK 090024
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-091830-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will shift east
as a low west of Washington and Oregon continues to  weaken and
drift south through Tuesday night. A gale force front  will
track east over the Gulf on Wednesday.  

$$

PKZ041-091830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell early in the evening.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt becoming E. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming W. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-091830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-091830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-091830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S late. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow.
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-091830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
324 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
5 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell late. 
.WED...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/...A low well to the south that
produced showers last night and yesterday remains nearly
stationary near 50N and continues to rotate bands of showers as
far north as the southern inner channels. Forecast thinking
yesterday was that one more band of showers would impact Southeast
Alaska tonight through Monday night. That band of showers is
still in the forecast, but looking at today's model data, the
source for that band does not appear to be the low to the south. A
closer look reveals an upper level trough dropping south from the
Yukon with a substantial amount of mid level vorticity. This is
an interesting point of note for meteorologists, but is really
just academic. The bottom line is that there will be showers
developing over the central panhandle tonight and spreading south
through Monday and Monday night. Models are consistent with regard
to a colder low level airmass dropping south from the Yukon
through this short term forecast period. In addition to decreasing
high and low temperatures for the next couple days, the upcoming
shower activity is also expected to produce measurable snowfall
beginning tonight. Daytime temps tomorrow should transition the
snow back to rain on Monday, but overnight lows Monday night will
cause a transition back to snow where showers persist.

The low to the south and high pressure over the interior and
northwest Canada will maintain a northerly pressure gradient. This
will cause northerly small craft winds over Lynn Canal and
northern Stephens Passage through Monday night. This plus the
colder air coming from Canada will result in light freezing spray
for Lynn Canal at night both tonight and Monday night.

As the shower activity moves off to the south, skies will begin
to clear. Look for partly cloudy to mostly clear skies over the
northern half of the Panhandle by Monday morning and over the
southern half by Tuesday morning. That'll be my day off, so I
think I'll go flight-seeing and maybe grab lunch in Sitka.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/...Before the upper level
trough moves out on Tuesday, mostly clear skies are expected
across the panhandle during the day. Guidance has slowed the next
weather system and will make it into the panhandle by early
Wednesday with widespread precipitation in the afternoon. Once
this system moves south Thursday, it may be followed by a weak
atmospheric river impacting the southern panhandle. Models are
optimistic and show another chance for dry weather and clear skies
on Saturday.

Models have slowed the start of precipitation from our next system
to early Wednesday morning. Precipitation will start in Yakutat,
become widespread in the afternoon, and then move south. Winds
will pick up with this front, and small craft advisories can be
anticipated along the outer coast and inner channels. Snow
possibilities for midweek are uncertain and could range up to
advisory totals in areas including and north of Angoon and
Juneau. The southern portion of the panhandle is forecasted to
receive additional precipitation from a weak atmospheric river
late on Thursday, though there is uncertainty on if the track of
this system will move further south.

The long term precipitation forecast is a blend of GFS/NAM for
Tuesday, and nudged to the GFS for the remainder of the week. This
adjusted the surface weather front timing and speed. Temperatures
for Friday and Saturday were trended down based on MOS and plume
guidance. Overall confidence is moderate for temperature changes,
but below average on which locations will see the most
precipitation through the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-041>043-051-052.

&&

Fritsch/KRT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau