Small Craft Advisory 133, NWS Juneau, AK

173 
FZAK51 PAJK 021548 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-030345-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
The low over Yakutat will move NE into the Yukon Tuesday
morning. A second low will move into the central Gulf  from the
S by late Tuesday night. 

$$

PKZ011-030345-
Glacier Bay-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-030345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and rain showers
in the evening, then snow showers late. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-030345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas
subsiding to 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft in the evening
then 2 ft or less. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-030345-
Icy Strait-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
subsiding to 3 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. 
Rain and snow showers early in the morning, then rain showers in 
the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-030345-
Cross Sound-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain showers and
snow showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms. Rain and
snow showers late. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-030345-
Stephens Passage-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-030345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. Snow showers in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-030345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Isolated thunderstorms near ocean entrance. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean 
entrances. Isolated thunderstorms near ocean entrance. Rain showers. 
Snow showers late. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Snow showers in the morning. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-030345-
Frederick Sound-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt deminishing to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 
ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E late. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers 
and snow showers. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-030345-
Sumner Strait-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean 
entrances. Isolated thunderstorms near ocean entrance. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E late. Gusts to 35 kt late.
Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Isolated thunderstorms 
near ocean entrance. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near 
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 5 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain showers. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-030345-
Clarence Strait-
356 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to
7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

025 
FZAK51 PAJK 030056
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-031700-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low pressure will drift along the southern gulf Tues night and
deepen as it rotates into the southeast gulf by Wed afternoon. 
This low will continue to drift northwest into the northern gulf 
through Thursday as it weakens. 

$$

PKZ011-031700-
Glacier Bay-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the late evening. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. Snow showers in the 
evening. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. Snow showers in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-031700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 2 ft or less late. Rain showers and snow showers in 
the evening.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-031700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-031700-
Icy Strait-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 15 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-031700-
Cross Sound-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain
showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-031700-
Stephens Passage-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-031700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Rain showers in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the 
afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming S late. Seas building to 3 ft 
late. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-031700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-031700-
Frederick Sound-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers
late. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-031700-
Sumner Strait-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E late. Gusts to 35 kt late.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-031700-
Clarence Strait-
356 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft, except
7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

620 
FZAK51 PAJK 031304
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-040345-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A broad low over the gulf slowly drifts northward. This low will
weaken on Thursday as a new low moves into the gulf from the
South.  

$$

PKZ011-040345-
Glacier Bay-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow and rain showers 
early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Snow showers and rain showers late. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-040345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas building to
5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-040345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt. Seas building to
4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-040345-
Icy Strait-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers and 
isolated thunderstorms early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-040345-
Cross Sound-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-040345-
Stephens Passage-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Gusts to 35 kt early in the
morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
showers and snow showers in the evening, then rain showers late. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-040345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain and snow 
showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming S late. Seas building to 3 ft
late. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-040345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the evening. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas
8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-040345-
Frederick Sound-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-040345-
Sumner Strait-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow 
showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow showers in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-040345-
Clarence Strait-
404 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Monday night Through Wednesday/...An area of low
pressure at the surface will pass just north of Yakutat. As it
moves northward, it will swing a front into the panhandle tonight.

This front will bring precip to much of the panhandle. Confidence
on QPF amounts tonight is moderate due to the decent agreement
among the ensembles. Areas along the northern gulf coast are
expected to get around a half to three-quarters of an inch of
moisture. Farther south along the coast, amounts look to be around
a quarter to half inch. The central and southern inner channels
are expected to get around a quarter to half inch as well with
some isolated spots getting a little more due to topography. The
northern inner channels are looking to get around a quarter to a
third of an inch.

The temperature forecast for the lower elevations tonight will
play a big part in what type of precip will fall. The going
forecast is calling for low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s
for areas south of the Icy Strait Corridor. Along and north of the
Icy Strait Corridor looks to see lows around freezing or a few
degrees colder. If these forecasted temperatures play out, then
expect rain or a rain/snow mix for the south with rain, snow, and
rain/snow mix likely for the north.

Accumulating snow is possible for the higher elevations and for a
few spotty locations along and north of the Icy Strait Corridor.
But with the low liquid-to-snow ratios, the type of snow is
expected to be the sloppy/wet kind of snow. The Yakutat area
could see an additional one to two inches of snow. The Juneau area
could see up to one inch. The northern highways could get around
one to three inches in the higher elevations. Less than one inch
amounts are looking possible for Haines, Skagway, Gustavus, and
Hoonah.

While the wind forecast for tonight has calming winds, the wind
will be on the strong side to start tonight with some Strong Wind
headlines this evening.

Tuesday brings a broad area of low pressure in the gulf, which
would keep onshore flow and precip chances in the forecast.

But due to the unorganized nature of the pattern, confidence in
the QPF forecast is on the low end. Broad-brush estimates Tuesday
through Wednesday are around a quarter to half inch of moisture
with some isolated spots getting a little more due to the
topography.

High temperatures tomorrow will be in the 30s to near 40. Cold
air will begin to filter back into the northern regions Tuesday
night so forecasted lows north of Icy Strait are in the 20s to
lower 30s. Lows in the mid to upper 30s are still expected for the
central and southern areas.

And with those colder forecasted temperatures Tuesday night, some
snow is possible but for now, amounts look to be around one to
two inches.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday night/..."Variety's the
very spice of life, that gives it all its flavour." according to
William Cowper's "The Task" (1785), and the long term looks to
deliver plenty of variety as the progressive pattern continues with
more than a few dashes of uncertainty to keep the forecasters on
their toes. As has been the case recently, there will be some rain,
snow, wind, waves, with a break possible at the very end of this
timeframe. Of note, temperatures do not appear to warm or cool
substantially during the long term. Temps will add their spice to
the forecast by just hanging uncomfortably close enough to
freezing to make snow a consideration in at least some portion of
the forecast area.

Models are in good agreement Wednesday and Thursday with a digging
upper level trough with the trough axis bisecting the Gulf of AK
Wednesday night. At it's maximum amplitude, the base of the trough
extends all the way to 35N latitude in the central Pacific. At
the surface models are also in decent agreement with a broad low
in the gulf, and disturbances rotating around the system bringing
periods of precipitation and wind to the panhandle. Precipitation
type and the timing and strength of the impulses will be the
forecast challenges. There appears to be one rather weak impulse
that will impact the coast Wednesday afternoon bringing showers
and possible small craft advisory winds for some of the channels.
Deterministic and ensemble models are showing a stronger surface
low approaching the panhandle from the southeast and riding up the
coast throughout the day on Friday, but there are differences in
both timing and track. Model trends will need to be watched on
this system as it could bring more impactful winds, possibly
gales, and precipitation, including snow, depending on the exact
track. After the Friday system passes, yet another weak system is
modeled to form in the gulf Saturday and approach the southern
panhandle, this time from the west, and exits quickly to the
southeast. Sunday and Monday look be the best chance for a break
from the active weather, but with model disagreement present as
early as Friday, confidence is low for the extended period.

To conclude on the subject of variety, an array of models were
used to construct the long term forecast. For the first two days,
a blend of the GFS, Canadian, European, and NAM were used due to
the very good agreement. For Friday and Saturday, the European
appeared to have the best handle on the Friday system so a blend
favoring the European model was used. Beyond that the operational
blends were leveraged (WPC, NBM).

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-053.

&&

GJS/BFL

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