Small Craft Advisory 124, NWS Juneau, AK

587 
FZAK51 PAJK 261903 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-270345-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
W to NW onshore flow will gradually diminish through Fri as a
weak ridge builds over the Gulf. A low moves into the  NW gulf
from the W Friday night.  

$$

PKZ011-270345-
Glacier Bay-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.
Snow and rain late. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Rain and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-270345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-270345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain late. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-270345-
Icy Strait-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft late. Rain and
snow late. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-270345-
Cross Sound-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain late. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-270345-
Stephens Passage-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt
late. Seas building to 4 ft late. Snow and rain late. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 6 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-270345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. Rain with 
snow late. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-270345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 14 
ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas building to
4 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. Rain late. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-270345-
Frederick Sound-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow late. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-270345-
Sumner Strait-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt decreasing to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in 
the morning then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas building to 4 ft 
late. Rain late. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-270345-
Clarence Strait-
1003 AM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
Rain late.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKST Thu Feb 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...The system that brought heavy snow to the Panhandle
earlier this morning, prompting Winter Storm Warnings for Juneau,
Hoonah, and Elfin Cove, has finally pushed out of the area.
Precipitation will be diminishing through the evening as
northwesterly flow brings in drier air. As for winds, the last of
the strong winds over the central outer coast will subside through
the evening as the overall flow weakens and main jet energy sags
southward.

Friday will be a calm day with decreased clouds, lighter winds, and
dry conditions as a relatively weak ridge builds in from the west.
Expect daytime highs near normal for this time of year in the mid to
upper 30s for the north and low 40s across the south.

The next system will start moving into the eastern Gulf and southeast
Alaska Friday night and hang around into Sunday. It brings with
it a good deep moisture supply via long southwesterly oriented Pacific
fetch. This looks like it could be a relatively short lived
atmospheric river event though IVT and IWV values do not look too
terribly impressive. GFS indicates that IVT values around 700 kg/m/s
will be associated with the front as it pushes into the Panhandle
Saturday. According to recent guidance, the region could receive
between 1.25 to 2.5 inches of rain through the weekend.

As for temperatures, southerly flow and warm air advection ahead of
the system will raise temps above freezing for most areas through
the day on Saturday. P-type will remain mostly rain for the majority
of the Panhandle throughout the event, except for higher elevations
on the Haines and Klondike highway. Guidance does indicates the
precipitation could begin as either snow for many areas in the
central and northern Panhandle late Friday night through early
Saturday morning; however a transition to all rain is expected
before noon.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday night/...An active
weather pattern continues into the long term with at least two
systems expected to impact Southeast Alaska through early next
week.

The period begins the next system approaching the region from the
west. Precipitation moves into the region as a low in the far NW
gulf swings a front into the Panhandle Saturday morning. Good
upper level dynamics will be associated with this front as a SW-NE
oriented jet pumps in subtropical moisture. The NAEFs and EC
Situational Awareness Tables already show IVT values and PW 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal for this time period. There is
potential for heavy precipitation across the region this weekend
as there are signals a weak atmospheric river could develop with
this front. Current thinking is that a total of 1 - 3 inches of
liquid could fall from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. A
brief break in the heavier precipitation is expected Sunday night
through Monday as the system departs and a zonal onshore flow
pattern sets up.

P-type should be predominantly rain this weekend with the
northerly track of the low and persistent southerly flow into the
Panhandle. However, precip may begin initially as snow before low
level cold air is scoured out by midday Saturday. There is
potential for accumulations before a transition to rain. Snow
levels, near sea level initially, will rise significantly as this
system pushes in with levels as high as 3,000 - 4000 ft across the
central and southern Panhandle on Saturday. Snow levels around
Haines will need to be monitored closely as they may rise above
1000 feet, which may cause impacts.

Models and ensembles continue the active weather pattern into
early next week as there is good agreement another system will
move into the northern gulf by Tuesday. This system may be very
similar to the previous one with good upper level dynamics and
subtropical connections. Details regarding these systems will be
fine tuned in the coming days. Overall confidence remains high in
an active pattern continuing across the region. Focused on the
weekend system for any changes to the forecast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-033-035-036-053.

&&

JLC/CM

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