Small Craft Advisory 116, NWS Juneau, AK

716 
FZAK51 PAJK 230133
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-231845-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
SW flow and a weakening pressure gradient will continue through
late Monday night. A ridge of high pressure will move over the
area Tuesday. A very strong low moves into the AK Gulf Wednesday.


$$

PKZ011-231845-
Glacier Bay-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain late.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-231845-
Northern Lynn Canal-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft subsiding
to to 3 ft late.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-231845-
Southern Lynn Canal-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-231845-
Icy Strait-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Strongest winds W of Point
Adolphus. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-231845-
Cross Sound-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 10 ft. S
swell. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-231845-
Stephens Passage-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers early in the 
evening. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-231845-
Northern Chatham Strait-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-231845-
Southern Chatham Strait-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 14 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft 
late. Near ocean entrances, seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except
9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft,
except 15 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-231845-
Frederick Sound-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Out of 
interior passes, gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt, except 40 kt
out of interior passes. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-231845-
Sumner Strait-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas building to
3 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-231845-
Clarence Strait-
433 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain showers in the evening. 
.TUE...SE wind diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft 
in the morning then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near
ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 12 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

.SHORT TERM.../To Tuesday / Weather front moved through the
panhandle Sunday and what remains this evening is onshore shower
activity for tonight and through much of Monday while the PoPs
decrease from the northwest. Cooler temperatures also working into
the panhandle pushing out off the warm air the pair front spread
into SE AK. Mixed rain and snow, going to snow, mixed with rain
during the warmer parts of the day Monday. A weak trough aloft
will push in a few more snow showers to the coast Monday night
and then Tuesday starts to dry before the next incoming system.

The showers tonight and into early Monday have prompted a Winter
weather advisory for the higher elevations of the Prince of Wales
road system about 3 to 4 inches, and 2 to 7 inches in the Juneau
area. Accumulations with showers can vary widely, however this is
our best estimate.

Still some locally gusty winds in the panhandle. Skagway should
see gusts 40 mph this evening and Lynn Canal. Most of the inner
channels still expecting to see Small Craft level winds through
tonight while the outer coast near 25 kt winds but swell moving
towards the coast keeping the seas above 8 feet so small crafts
there.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday night/...This long range
forecast period begins with an upper ridge over the western Gulf
moving rapidly to the east. Upstream, a sharply defined upper
trough will move east and displace the ridge over the northern
gulf be Wednesday afternoon. Upper level northwesterly jet flow
of 70 to 120 kt over the Panhandle will accompany each passing
ridge. This pattern will repeat through the balance of the
upcoming week, with variations in the strength of the ridges,
troughs, and corresponding jet streams. All in all, a very active
weather pattern for Southeast Alaska.

At the surface, a front will already be well past the Panhandle
with residual shower activity through the day. Tuesday night will
offer a break from the precipitation before the next front
arrives on Wednesday. This front is looking more and more like a
significant snow maker for parts of Southeast Alaska. A transition
to rain will likely occur over the southern outer coast by
Wednesday afternoon, then the southern inner channels later that
evening. A transition to rain north of Frederick Sound is not
certain but precipitation amounts are expected to taper off
through the end of the work week. Long range models are depicting
still another front for the upcoming weekend and this one is
currently looking like another snow machine for the northern half
of Southeast Alaska through Saturday night.

Winds throughout the long range forecast period are looking to be
quite mild for the Gulf of Alaska and the inner channels
considering it is Winter. At present, gales are limited to the
offshore waters of marine zone 310 with periods of small craft
winds for the ocean entrances of Cross Sound, Chatham Strait, and
SUmner Strait.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST
     Monday for AKZ027-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM AKST
     Monday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031>036-052-053.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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