High Wind Watch 1, NWS Juneau, AK

328 
WWAK77 PAJK 091354
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
454 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

AKZ027-101500-
/O.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0001.210109T2100Z-210110T1200Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0003.210109T1800Z-210110T1500Z/
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Craig and Klawock
454 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Southeast Gulf Coast.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 6 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest winds are likeliest Saturday
  afternoon and evening. Winds will begin to ease early Sunday
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should use caution when outside in forested areas and 
around trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ023-101500-
/O.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0001.210109T2100Z-210110T1200Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0003.210109T2100Z-210110T1500Z/
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Sitka and Port Alexander
454 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AKST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Baranof Island especially for Port Alexander.

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees and power lines. Power
  outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should exercise caution if outside in forested areas and 
around trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
650 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Friday through Saturday night/...A weakening storm
force low that will approach the Panhandle from the south today
and weaken further. It will cause the winds to shift to southerly
across the Panhandle as it approaches and moves inland, today. In
the Lynn Canal region of the northern Panhandle, it could bring
in some warm air off the channel waters and some weak warm air
advection from the south to warm things up in the Haines and
Skagway areas. This weakening warm air advection can be seen in
the models at 850 mb riding up the Panhandle as the weakening low
approaches and moves inland over southeast Alaska. This could
potentially make it up the Haines Highway to the Canadian border
and make the precipitation change over to a mix or rain, lowering
additional snow amounts in the afternoon and overnight, but that
is yet to be seen and it is not guaranteed. This low will bring
precipitation chances to the Panhandle during the break between
the prior system and the strong frontal system that will approach
the area for the Saturday timeframe.

Although short lived, this low looks to bring a plethora of
strong winds, Storm force winds, Gales, and enhanced seas to some
of the southern land and marine zones until the afternoon due to a
tight pressure gradient. A High Wind Warning is in Effect until 1
PM AKST for the Ketchikan, Klawock, Craig, and Hydaburg areas in
the southern inner channels and southwestern Gulf coastal areas of
the Panhandle. A Storm Warning is in effect for Clarence Strait
for high winds and elevated seas.

Another storm force front looks to bring a variety of different
weather impacts to the Panhandle and adjacent waters around the
Saturday timeframe. These include strong impactful winds over land
areas and waters, enhanced seas, and appreciable rainfall
amounts. It could also bring some appreciable snow amounts for the
areas around the roads that cross the Canadian border. Healthy
modeled IVT values indicate that there will be a long fetch of
deep moisture from the central Pacific aimed at the Panhandle. In
other words, plenty of moisture will be available to this system
and the subsequent parade of systems over the next several days.
Along with this, generally onshore flow over the Panhandle, any
enhancement of precipitation via topographic uplift, and the
persistence of systems approaching the area over the next week,
appreciable amounts of rainfall could be observed.

Generally, temperatures should remain near what we have been
experiencing over the past few days across the Panhandle with
temperatures remaining in the 30s and 40s throughout much of the
Panhandle for the short term forecast period. The common
exceptions will be up along the Haines and Klondike Canadian
border crossing highways and around Hyder where temperatures
should, generally, remain in the 20s to 30s range.

According to guidance, we are getting into a very active pattern
with parade of storm systems and waves approaching the Panhandle
over the next week with short breaks.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday as of 10 PM Thursday/
Mid/upper level wave pattern for the long range stays relatively
unchanged with ridging over western Canada/US and deep trough over
the AK Gulf and out to the Aleutians. What this means is
continuing active weather pattern favoring deep cyclogenesis
emergence into the Gulf of Alaska Sun/Mon whose enhanced onshore
moisture fetch and circulation is expected to fuel a threat of
increased precipitation and high winds/waves. As the week moves on
getting more consensus from ensembles that the active weather
will subside somewhat as the upper wave pattern shifts to the
west, thus keeping low development further to the west of the
region. Standardized anomalies with NAEFS and ENS, while still
above normal, for temperatures, wind, and precipitable water are
much lower than seen the past few days. However even with this
ensemble consensus of overall pattern there is still low
predictability on the developing surface lows. This is even more
evident when looking at operational model runs. Used a blend of
GFS/ECMWF for the Sunday system, then kept with WPC for its
ensemble solution.

For Sunday as the Saturday front moves northward indications of
cyclogenesis along the wave in the western Gulf moving in more
precip and increased winds. Southerly flow for most areas keeping
precip mainly as rain. Area of concern for snow is the far
northern panhandle, which due to overnight northerly flow should have
temps low enough for snow initially. As the low/front tracks
north pressure gradient flips resulting in southerly winds, warm
air advection and a change over from snow to rain. For the start
of the week the frontal band over the panhandle will dissipate,
but beyond that only confidence in saying more lows will
eventually move into the Gulf and region, but might see a shift
toward cooler temps and lower snow levels.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 1 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind until 7 AM AKST this morning for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST this evening
     for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST this evening
     for AKZ023.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036.
     Gale Warning for PKZ033-035-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-032-034-051>053.

&&

JLC/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1125 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
01/08/2021  M61 MPH          KETCHIKAN GATEWAY  AK   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
104 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 AM     Storm Wind Gust  10 NW KETCHIKAN         55.46N 131.87W
01/08/2021  M55 MPH          PKZ036             AK   Mesonet

            Guard Island--Gixa2

&&

gspann

Preliminary Local Storm Report
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
108 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 AM     Storm Wind Gust  KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
01/08/2021  M83 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            Roof Wind Occasional Gusts. Additional weaker gusts also
            reported earlier.

&&

gspann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
128 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
01/08/2021  M85 MPH          KETCHIKAN GATEWAY  AK   MESONET

            SLXA HIGHEST GUST AT 914 AM; HAD VARIOUS
            LOWER HIGH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 1644Z AND
            1914Z.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
140 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     High Wind        KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
01/08/2021  U0 MPH                              AK   Public

            Report of very strong and gusty winds with dangerous wind
            conditions in the channel.

&&

gspann

Preliminary Local Storm Report
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
154 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     High Wind        50 SSE KETCHIKAN        54.69N 131.21W
01/08/2021  M69 MPH          XXX                XX   Ship

            Ship KGTZ.

&&

gspann