Gale Warning 311, NWS Juneau, AK

164 
FZAK52 PAJK 220032
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-221845-
332 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale-force low SW of Sitka is tracking SE along the outer
coast through Tuesday night. A trough over the panhandle 
returns late Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. Outlook.
A second gale-force low enters the northern gulf and tracks SE 
along the outer coast late Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ041-221845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
332 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming N. Seas 20 ft. Rain early in the
evening. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas
11 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-221845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
332 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming N wind 30 kt late. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming W late. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-221845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
332 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-221845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
332 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt becoming NE 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-221845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
332 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt late. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 12 ft late. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

233 
FZAK52 PAJK 220109 CCA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
409 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-221845-
409 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale-force low SW of Sitka is tracking SE along the outer
coast through Tuesday night. A trough over the panhandle 
returns late Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. Outlook.
A second gale-force low enters the northern gulf and tracks SE 
along the outer coast late Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ041-221845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
409 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming N. Seas 20 ft. Rain early in the
evening. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas
11 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-221845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
409 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming N wind 30 kt late. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming W late. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-221845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
409 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-221845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
409 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-221845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
409 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding 
to 12 ft late. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

292 
FZAK52 PAJK 221308
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-230715-
408 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure to the south and high pressure over the Yukon will
cause northerly winds through Wednesday. A new low tracks from
the northern gulf late Wednesday night to the SE gulf by Thursday
afternoon. Outlook. Northerly outflow winds increase again 
Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ041-230715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
408 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt late. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-230715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
408 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW late. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 7
ft late.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft. W swell in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-230715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
408 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming SE 15 kt. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. W 
swell in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind increasing to to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-230715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
408 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas 
9 ft in the morning subsiding to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-230715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
408 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft in the morning subsiding to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt late. Seas 
building to 7 ft.
.THU...NW gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
451 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Wednesday / The jet becomes amplified on
Tuesday with a NWLY jet streak that crosses the Anchorage area,
then into the northern Gulf of Alaska. Jet streak dynamics will
help to spin up a surface low which then tracks SE with the jet
through Tuesday night. At the mid levels (500mb), the jet streak
is quite strong (110-120+ knots) and moves south a bit faster.
Precip will move in Monday evening, but initially the column isn't
saturated in the dendritic growth zone, aka not many ice crystals
in the clouds. Therefore, a chance of freezing drizzle remains in
the forecast for most of the region at the onset, but only a
light glaze is anticipated. If the freezing drizzle/rain becomes
more prevalent, more parts of the panhandle may be added to the
list of advisories/warnings, but at this point the expected snow
totals are driving those. Yakutat/Haines/Skagway look to get about
3 inches out of this storm, so they have been left out of any
statements for now. As the low progresses SE, snowfall rates pick
up with greatest amounts falling during the Tuesday morning
commute. Petersburg/Wrangell areas ended up with the greatest
snowfall at about 10 inches. Please see the latest
forecast/statement for details in your area.

As the low tracks away to the south through Tuesday night, skies
will clear fairly quickly. Winds will increase out of the north
as well, particularly through the northern Lynn Canal region and
other interior passes. Light to moderate freezing spray becomes
more likely as temperatures drop under clear skies late Tuesday
night. The temperatures over the northern Lynn Canal area are
lowering to lower teens / single digits or colder. Along the road
sub zero temperatures will return.

.LONG TERM...Continued outflow winds and very cold temperatures
are expected to continue through the end of the long-term
forecast period. A relatively weak low looks to move from
northwest to southeast, just skirting past the Panhandle, late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, which will bring up to
about 30 to 40 percent PoPs and some with minor forecast QPF
values along the Outer Coast. Temperatures will be plenty cold
enough for the precipitation to be all snow, but expect only very
light accumulations if any, due to the very light nature of the
snow. After that moves by, the strong Yukon high will dominate our
weather, once again, with clearing skies and negligible chances
for precipitation due to the steady and strong anticyclonic
offshore flow.

As for the winds, expect the northerly outflow winds to continue
through the period. Small craft to Gale winds are anticipated over
north-south oriented Inner Channels, such as Lynn Canal, and up
to small craft over adjacent Inner Channels. Additionally,
funneling will cause strong gusty winds to blow out of interior
passes perpendicular to the tight pressure gradient, which will be
setup over the Coast Mountains over the northern and eastern
Panhandle. Strong and gusty winds are possible for the Skagway and
Haines areas, as well, with sustained winds of around 25 mph with
gusts in the 40s. Along with the very cold temperatures. Bitterly
cold wind chills are possible. Dress warmly if you must be
outside for a prolonged period of time.

As for the bitterly cold temperatures, 850mb model forecast
temperatures getting down well into the negative 20s Celsius
advecting toward the area will translate into some areas in the
northern and central Panhandle easily dipping below zero for
overnight lows, especially toward the holiday weekend. Areas in
the southern Panhandle look to dip into the single digits for
several nights in a row. Ensemble guidance indicates this
substantial of a temperature drop, as well. MOS does not go quite
as cold as it looks to be 2 to 8 degrees warmer on average for the
overnight lows for the period. MOS does not seem to handle
outflow cold temperature outbreaks as well. Daytime highs do not
look to recover, substantially. Prolonged temperatures this cold
may cause pipes to freeze.

Forecast confidence is about average. There is a little
uncertainty over the exact track of the low that will skirt by the
Panhandle late Wednesday night into Thursday. This morning, the
spread was pretty even. Therefore, an even blend of the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/NAM was used to get an average track for the
low center.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ026.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST
     Tuesday for AKZ027-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKST
     Tuesday for AKZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST
     Tuesday for AKZ020>022.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind Tuesday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-042-043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>034-036-041-053.

&&

Bezenek/JLC

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