Gale Warning 287, NWS Juneau, AK

456 
FZAK67 PAJK 211232
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-220645-
332 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale-force low in the northern gulf is tracking SE  along the
outer coast through Tuesday night. A trough over the  panhandle
returns late Tuesday evening. Outlook. A second gale- force low
enters the northern gulf and tracks SE along the outer  coast
late Wednesday.  

$$

PKZ310-220645-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
332 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to
17 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft late. 
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
10 ft. 
.THU...NW gale to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

240 
FZAK67 PAJK 220034
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-221845-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale-force low SW of Sitka is tracking SE along the outer
coast through Tuesday night. A trough over the panhandle 
returns late Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. Outlook.
A second gale-force low enters the northern gulf and tracks SE 
along the outer coast late Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ310-221845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
334 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft late. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
9 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.THU...NW gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

204 
FZAK67 PAJK 220107 CCA
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-221845-
407 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale-force low SW of Sitka is tracking SE along the outer
coast through Tuesday night. A trough over the panhandle 
returns late Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. Outlook.
A second gale-force low enters the northern gulf and tracks SE 
along the outer coast late Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ310-221845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
407 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft late. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
9 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.THU...NW gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

101 
FZAK67 PAJK 221248
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-230700-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Low pressure to the south and high pressure over the Yukon will
cause northerly winds through Wednesday. A new low tracks from
the northern gulf late Wednesday night to the SE gulf by Thursday
afternoon. Outlook. Northerly outflow winds increase again 
Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ310-230700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
348 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. NW swell shifting 
to the W.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas building 
to 11 ft late. 
.THU...NW gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 

$$

570 
FZAK67 PAJK 230025
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
325 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-231830-
325 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A new low tracks from the northern gulf late Wednesday night to 
the SE gulf by Thursday afternoon. Outlook. Northerly outflow 
winds increase again Thursday night. 

$$

PKZ310-231830-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
325 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 8 ft
building to 12 ft late. Snow late. 
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

918 
FZAK67 PAJK 231317
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
417 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-240730-
417 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A low over the eastern gulf will track south through Thursday
afternoon. Northerly outflow winds increase again  Thursday
night. 

$$

PKZ310-240730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
417 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft. Rain early
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

277 
FZAK67 PAJK 240008
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-241815-
308 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A strong high in the Yukon will persist through Sunday while a
weak trough lingers over the gulf. The resulting Northerly
outflow winds will continue through the weekend.  

$$

PKZ310-241815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
308 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft late. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 6 ft in the
morning then subsiding. 
.SAT NIGHT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or
less. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

010 
FZAK67 PAJK 241302
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-250715-
402 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A strong high in the Yukon will persist through Sunday while a
weak trough lingers over the gulf. The resulting Northerly
outflow winds will continue through the weekend.  

$$

PKZ310-250715-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
402 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 6 ft in the
morning then subsiding. 
.SAT NIGHT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or
less. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
721 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...The upper level jet will continue to have a
positively tilted ridge that goes from the Aleutians, up into the
arctic, then down across the panhandle (N-NWLY flow). Another
brisk morning today under mostly clear skies, but high clouds are
already starting to move in across the north. Expect a slow/steady
increase in temperatures through the next 24 hours, but with most
places staying below freezing.

The jet becomes amplified on Tuesday with a NWLY jet streak that
crosses the Anchorage area, then into the northern Gulf of Alaska.
Jet streak dynamics will help to spin up a surface low which then
tracks SE with the jet through Tuesday night. At the mid levels
(500mb), the jet streak is quite strong (110-120+ knots) and moves
south a bit faster. Precip will move in Monday evening, but
initially the column isn't saturated in the dendritic growth zone,
aka not many ice crystals in the clouds. Therefore, a chance of
freezing drizzle remains in the forecast for most of the region at
the onset, but only a light glaze is anticipated. If the freezing
drizzle/rain becomes more prevalent, more parts of the panhandle
may be added to the list of advisories/warnings, but at this point
the expected snow totals are driving those.
Yakutat/Haines/Skagway look to get about 3 inches out of this
storm, so they have been left out of any statements for now. As
the low progresses SE, snowfall rates pick up with greatest
amounts falling during the Tuesday morning commute.
Petersburg/Wrangell areas ended up with the greatest snowfall at
about 10 inches. Please see the latest forecast/statement for
details in your area.

As the low tracks away to the south through Tuesday night, skies
will clear fairly quickly. Winds will increase out of the north
as well, particularly through the northern Lynn Canal region and
other interior passes. Light to moderate freezing spray becomes
more likely as temperatures drop under clear skies late Tuesday
night.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday night/...the mid range
forecast begins with clear, cold, quiet weather around the
panhandle. But Monday is looking like a transition day to a quick
hit of snow on Tuesday.

Clouds are expected to increase late Monday. And the pressure
gradient over the panhandle should lighten up so winds should
decrease as well. High temps look to be in the 20s for most of the
area, 30s are possible along the outer coast.

An area of low pressure is projected to move southeast through
the gulf through Tuesday so the snow would track southeast through
the panhandle. It would begin in the Yakutat area late Monday and
track southeast, exiting through the southern panhandle Tuesday
night. Just ahead of the low, 850mb temps are projected to get
near -4C in the central and southern panhandle, so rain/snow
mixing was allowed to stay in the forecast but confidence is low
due to surface temps only get a few degrees above 32 before
cooling back to the 20s Tuesday night.

The 24 hour QPF amounts for Tuesday through Tuesday night range
from near a tenth of an inch in the northern inner channels to
about a half inch in the central inner channels. This idea is
backed up by the model ensemble outputs. 24 hour QPF probabilities
of more than 0.10” was greater than 70 to 80% and probabilities
of more than 0.50” rose to around 30-60%. So if typical SE AK
snow ratios play out, overall snowfall amounts shouldn’t be too
high. Went with a comfortable one to four inch range, but locally
higher amounts are still possible. Once this event gets closer,
forecaster confidence will increase with use of hi-res models in
addition to ensemble probabilities.

Inner channel wind forecast was, overall, left to ride due to
expected strong outflow winds. Outside waters were touched up to
try to incorporate the details in speed and direction as the low
passes. Overall, still expecting gale forecast winds in outside
waters as low passes on Tuesday.

Models solutions late in the week in general agreement in deep Nly
flow through the atmosphere with strong signals of below normal
temps expected heading into next weekend.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ026.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST
     Tuesday for AKZ027-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKST
     Tuesday for AKZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST
     Tuesday for AKZ020>022.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043.

&&

Ferrin/JLC

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