Gale Warning 215, NWS Juneau, AK

584 
FZAK52 PAJK 110114
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
514 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-111915-
514 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A high pressure ridge moves through the Southern Gulf through
Sunday night. A storm force low will move into the north central
Gulf Monday night while the associated front moves across the
panhandle. 

$$

PKZ041-111915-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
514 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. W swell in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt late. Seas 24 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-111915-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
514 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 9 ft late. W swell in the evening. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon. W swell in the morning.
Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt becoming W 25 kt late. 
Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. W swell. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-111915-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
514 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt late. Seas 14 ft
subsiding to 9 ft late. W swell.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt becoming SW 20 kt late.
Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-111915-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
514 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt becoming SW gale to
45 kt late. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-111915-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
514 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers late. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt diminishing to 25 kt
late. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

838 
FZAK52 PAJK 111213
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-120615-
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low moves into the north central Gulf  Monday
night while the associated front moves across the panhandle. 
Outlook: The low weakens and moves onshore near Yakutat Bay 
Tuesday evening. Lower pressure remains in the northern gulf 
through the week. 

$$

PKZ041-120615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt late. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-120615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt late. Seas 23 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. W swell. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-120615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt late. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-120615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the morning, then
increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 16 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt becoming S 30 kt late. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-120615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt diminishing to 35 kt late. Seas 24 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
Showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
257 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Tuesday night / A few lingering showers
over the southern portion of the panhandle will be headed SE in
the upper level flow with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over the
panhandle this evening. A few breaks in the clouds may lead to so
patchy fog development towards morning primarily for the northern
portion of the panhandle headed into early Monday.

Only minor forecast changes were undertaken today as models were
still struggling to agree on a track and strength. They had the
same general idea so didn't need many big adjustments. Adjustments
in the future may be needed as the models become better aligned.

The next incoming weather system has a triple point feature south
of Cold Bay Sunday afternoon that will track ENE into the
northern gulf by Monday night. The main parent low remains over
the northern Bering Sea. The associated storm force front will
move to the eastern gulf and coastal waters Monday night, with
gales to strong small craft winds (30 to 40kt) spreading into the
inner channels. Have posted some strong wind head lines for some coastal
communities this afternoon, and may need more with tonight's
forecast package as the front becomes more of a near term issue.

A period of heavy rain is expected with the front and expected
rainfall totals from Monday night through Tuesday evening may be 2
to 4 inches, or locally more. Rivers and streams are anticipated
to rise, some quickly, however flooding in not expected.

Showers in the onshore flow behind the main front along with the
moisture associated with the wrap around moisture/second wrap
will move into the panhandle Tuesday.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday night/...Very poor model
agreement at the start of this extended range forecast period,
both between the models and from run to run. At issue is a storm
force low that will be located somewhere over the northern gulf.
GFS was by far the southerly outlier and was not used for updates
to pressure or wind. NAM in conjunction with the Canadian offered
the best continuity with respect to the end of the previous short
term forecast and was used for updates through Tuesday night.
Even so, the latest NAM and Canadian model run both take the low
inland west of Icy Bay vice east of Yakutat, which is what the
current long range forecast depicts. Regardless, winds over the
eastern gulf and along the outer coast will be impactful.
Unfortunately, apart from saying that there will be storm force
winds over the eastern gulf and the potential for high winds along
the outer coast is there, the details of when and where are not
clear yet. Confidence is very low on this aspect of the long range
forecast.

In spite of poor model agreement on the location and track of the
low, there is good agreement on the resulting precipitation
pattern for both this first system and the second. Another heavy
rain event will already be in progress by Tuesday morning, but
will begin to wind down by the afternoon. The second front will
arrive early on Wednesday and promises to bring more heavy
precipitation to Southeast Alaska. A third front will arrive late
on Saturday to round out this long range forecast period.

Temps are getting colder as we make our way through the month of
October, but snow does not look like it is on the horizon just
yet. Low and mid-level thicknesses are still not where they need
to be to support snowfall at the lower elevations. Nor are
overnight lows. And while low level winds will begin as southerly
over the inner channels on Tuesday, post frontal onshore flow
will usher in a warmer low level airmass. A similar situation will
exist for the second front. By next Saturday, conditions are a
little more favorable for snow at the lower elevations, but that
will have to be watched over the next few days, as it makes
little sense to put a lot of confidence in the long range model
solutions.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ017-023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>036-053.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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