Gale Warning 126, NWS Juneau, AK

609 
FZAK51 PAJK 302332
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-311715-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A broad ridge of high pressure will shift southeast and weaken
through Tuesday night. A low shifts south into the central Gulf
while an associated weather front moves over the eastern Gulf 
Tuesday night and then the Panhandle Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ011-311715-
Glacier Bay-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain then snow.
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-311715-
Northern Lynn Canal-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers in the
evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-311715-
Southern Lynn Canal-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers in the evening. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-311715-
Icy Strait-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-311715-
Cross Sound-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-311715-
Stephens Passage-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Out
of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers in the
evening. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-311715-
Northern Chatham Strait-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-311715-
Southern Chatham Strait-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas 13 ft. Rain in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-311715-
Frederick Sound-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers in the
evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-311715-
Sumner Strait-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming light. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-311715-
Clarence Strait-
332 PM AKDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain
late. 
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft
late. Near ocean entrances, seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft late. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKDT Mon Mar 29 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Monday evening through Wednesday evening/ The forecast
is on track this afternoon as moisture streams over a broad ridge
over the North Pacific and into the Panhandle. Precipitation
continues to overspread the region and is expected to persist into
Tuesday. P-type began as snow for most areas, but will transition
over to rain through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours
as colder air at the surface slowly erodes. Snow levels will
continue to rise across the Panhandle; however accumulating snow
is still expected at higher elevations along the Klondike Highway.
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for White Pass for up
to 10 inches of snow 6 AM Tuesday to 6am Wednesday. At sea level,
rainfall amounts upwards of 1.00" to 1.25" are possible through
Tuesday evening, especially along higher terrain of the Coast
Mountains and Outer Coast. Lesser amounts around 0.25 to 0.50"
expected across the far Southern Panhandle and Prince of Wales
Island.

Little to no break in the precipitation as the next weather maker
moves into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A digging
trough over Western Alaska moves southward into the Gulf during
this timeframe. Westerly flow aloft turns southerly ahead of the
approaching trough with a strong 100+ kt jet streak with
subtropical connections pumping in ample moisture into Southern
Alaska. At the same time, a surface low near Prince William Sound
pushes a front into the Panhandle late Tuesday night through early
Wednesday morning. As the front moves in, the stream of moisture
from the south will push southeastward through the Panhandle
increasing rainfall coverage and intensity. From Tuesday evening
through Wednesday evening another 1.00" to 1.50" of rainfall could
fall across the entire Panhandle.

P-type will be predominately rain as southerly flow should keep
temperatures above freezing at sea level. Models do continue to
hint at cooler air (-6C to -7C) at 850 mb and lower 1000-850mb
thickness values around 1290m just ahead of the front late Tuesday
night which could allow for some areas to begin as a brief period
of snow. The best chance for accumulating snow will be higher
elevations along the Haines and Klondike Highways; however Yakutat
may cool down enough for minor accumulations as well. Low
confidence in the snow possibility at sea level, higher confidence
in the threat for accumulating snow along the highways. Overall
the main impact with this next weather system will be the heavy
rain threat and rising snow levels everywhere.

Main impacts from winds in the short term will be small craft
conditions developing in the Inner Channels as the front pushes in
Tuesday into Wednesday. Gale force winds possible along the outer
coast and far Southern Inner channels on Wednesday.

Overall confidence is around average for the short term.

.LONG TERM.../Wed through Mon as of 10 pm Sun/ Most of the
extended period is dominated by a cold upper trough that will
settle over the area mid week and then stick around into the
weekend. The air mass coming down with it is somewhat cold for
this time of year with NAEFS forecast temperatures around 1
standard deviation below normal at 500 mb and 700 mb. The cold air
also sticks around into the weekend. There is some hints of a
brief weak warmup early next week as a flat ridge tries to move
in, but there is no consistency from the various extended range
models on timing (some hold off on that ridge until Tue rather
then Mon).

For the panhandle, that cold air mentioned above does not reach us
until Wed evening in the wake of a gale force front that will be
blowing through the panhandle Wed. The details on this front have
not changed all that much from the previous forecast with most of
the wind (gale force for the SE gulf and southern panhandle marine
areas, and gusty winds for land areas especially for the outer
coast and southern panhandle) and heavier precip (mostly rain
around 1 inch of rainfall is still expected) still pushing
through during the day Wed. Persistent onshore flow behind the
front as a weak low persists in the northern gulf will not only
bring the colder air in, but will also promote continued precip
from showers that will be blown in from the W. 850 mb temps in the
cold air will be around -7 to -9C over most of the panhandle so
most of these showers will be in the form of snow except during
the afternoons where solar heating warms temps up into the mid 30s
to low 40s. Any accumulations are expected to be low and mainly
occur at night.

Forecast becomes increasingly uncertain into the weekend and early
next week as the differences in handling of the upper level
features affects where, and how fast, the northern gulf surface
low slides SE (and whether it gets replaced with another low in
the same place). There are some indications of a drier period of
weather for sometime this weekend in between the retreating low
and the one that may take its place, but there is no agreement on
when (Most likely on Sat, but there is also a chance on Sun as
well) so overall chance pops remain across a wide area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-041>043-051>053.

&&

CM/EAL

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