Gale Warning 109, NWS Juneau, AK

026 
FZAK52 PAJK 131247
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140700-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A surface high in interior Canada and an opposing surface low 
south of the Panhandle results in a strong offshore flow and 
northerly winds in the northern Panhandle Saturday. A surface low 
develops near Cordova on Sunday and lingers west of Yakutat. 

$$

PKZ041-140700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding late. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 5 ft late. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas
9 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray early in the 
morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain with snow. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

417 
FZAK52 PAJK 140006
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141815-
306 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Offshore flow and northerly winds diminish late Saturday night
into Sunday for the northern panhandle. A surface low develops 
near Kodiak Island early Sunday and moves towards Prince William 
Sound by Monday. The associated gale force front approaches the 
northern and central gulf coast Sunday night moving inland on 
Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-141815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
306 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
Rain late. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-141815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
306 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft late.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 6 ft
building to 10 ft late. Rain late. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-141815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
306 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 6 ft. W 
swell early in the evening.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt late.
Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft late. Rain and snow late. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-141815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
306 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt late. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 5 ft late. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt late.
Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft late. Snow and rain. 
.MON...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-141815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
306 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow in the 
evening. Snow late. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau
AK 538 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA.../Through Sat night/...Latest weather prediction
models are now indicating a high probability of up to 4 inches of
new snow for the southern inner channels. Some scenarios are
indicating 6 inches or more of new snow is possible for Friday night
through Saturday and confidence is increasing for more snow than is
in the current forecast issued earlier this morning. Small changes
in temperatures Friday night through Saturday and the actual track
of the heaviest precipitation will have a large impact on how much
snow any particular location receives.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...Snow showers are the rule of the
day for most of the area. Some of these showers have been moderate
to heavy with visibilities down to a mile or less at times in some
showers. Accumulations have not been that heavy with maybe an inch
or two in some areas overnight. Some additional bands of snow
showers linger offshore and will continue to come onshore through
the day with only a few inches of snow at most for accumulations
expected. The exception to the shower rule is Hyder where
yesterday's front has stalled over the area and has continued to
bring stratiform precip throughout the night. Snow accumulations
have only been around 1 inch as of 4 am as temps were too warm for
the snow to accumulate until around 1 am.

Most of the short range is a time of change as precipitation gives
way to drier weather and northerly outflow by Sat. The main forecast
concerns are first the lingering front across the southern panhandle
and the increasing outflow winds for the north.
For the lingering front, a new wave will propagate northward along
the front later today and cause the front to meander back to the
west tonight. This combined with near freezing temps tonight in the
southern panhandle will bring some accumulating snow to that area.
No changes to the forecast snowfall for the Hyder area with a winter
weather advisory still in place, however this area could warm up
enough that snow will mix with rain instead and result in lower snow
fall totals. Snowfall for Ketchikan and Metlakatla will largely
depend on how cold these areas get and how much QPF they get as
well. Currently have around 33 to 34 degrees for a low and most of
the higher QPF to their E so only expect up to 3 inches here, but if
they get warmer or colder (or more or less QPF) snowfall amounts
could become lower or higher.

Otherwise focus then shifts to the northerly outflow that will be
starting to blow down the northern inner channels Fri night. Gale
force winds are likely in Lynn Canal as early as Fri night with
small craft winds in many of the northern inner channels by Sat.
Gusty winds are also likely for the downtown Juneau and Douglas area
Sat as mountain wave activity starts acting up due to 30 kt cross
barrier flow. Highest winds are expected on Sat and then will start
to diminish into Sat night.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday/The long
range forecast begins with the panhandle toward the end of a chilly
weekend (for Mid-March) due to cold high pressure to the north.
During the day and into the night Sunday, the predominant flow will
shift southerly as the high moves off to the west. Skies will clear
some late in the day and through the overnight which should allow
for some radiative cooling, so one more chilly night looks to be in
store. The warmer southerly flow really begins to take hold Monday
to begin a warm up to start the work week.

Precip associated with low pressure moving toward the region from
the west should arrive in the region Late Sunday night into Monday.
Still a lot of uncertainty with this event in regards to timing and
precip totals, but the southern panhandle looks to be the recipient
of the greatest QPF amounts. Temps will be cold enough at the onset
to support snow in the forecast with several areas standing a chance
to see some decent amounts before daytime warming allows for a
change over to rain, but again, if that timing is delayed any, then
final snow totals could be greatly reduced, especially for the
southern panhandle. As far as areas from around Wrangell to Port
Alexander and northward (and Hyder), a delay would reduce snow
amounts for Monday early, but confidence is pretty good that
temperatures will fall back to freezing and below, allowing for
another round of snow. Confidence is low in the actual placement of
that rain/snow dividing line, as South of it temperatures look to
get cold enough to at least see some snow mix in, but if the line
falls further south then those areas could again get another couple
of inches. After this system passes, chances for showers will linger
before another front moves through the region around mid week.
Though models vary wildly on the solution, late in the week there
may be a chance for some drying out in the north.

This will be the trend through the week, rain and snow melt during
the day and re-freezing and chances for snow at night. What will
change though is that the rain/snow line at should progressively
move northward each night. Any late week clearing of the clouds up
north would likely cause the line to regress back to the south. A
proverbial ray of sunshine in the forecast though is that many
northern locations of the appear to be in line to see 40 degree
temps for the first time in months, perhaps as early as Wednesday!

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST
     Saturday for AKZ029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>034-041>043-051>053.

&&

JWA/EAL/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
929 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

AKZ028-130100-
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Ketchikan and Metlakatla
929 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...EARLY WEEKEND SNOW FOR KETCHIKAN AND SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS...

After a dry Friday, precipitation develops quickly Friday evening
across the southern Inner Channels including Ketchikan, Saxman,
Metlakatla, Hollis, Thorne Bay, Kasaan, and Meyers Chuck.
Precipitation may initially begin as rain but will quickly change
over to snow. We are currently forecasting temperatures across
this region in the mid 30s falling into the lower 30s. Snow will
likely intensify across the region through the night. Due to
milder temperatures, the highest probability snow forecast for the
region is 1 to 3 inches. However, actual snow amounts could be
lower or much higher depending on very small changes both in
temperature and in the track of the narrow band of heavy
precipitation. There are scenarios where Ketchikan and the
southern Inner Channels could receive very little snow and others
where it could receive 6 inches or more. Please monitor NOAA
weather radio, weather.gov/Juneau, and local media for important
weather updates on this winter event.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1230 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

AKZ026>028-130100-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-
Including the cities of Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig,
Klawock, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla
1230 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...EARLY WEEKEND SNOW FOR KETCHIKAN AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...

After a dry Friday, precipitation develops quickly Friday evening
across the southern Inner Channels including Ketchikan, Saxman,
Metlakatla, Hollis, Thorne Bay, Kasaan, and Meyers Chuck.
Precipitation may initially begin as rain but will quickly change
over to snow. We are currently forecasting temperatures across
this region in the mid 30s falling into the lower 30s. Snow will
likely intensify across the region through the night. Due to
milder temperatures, the highest probability snow forecast for the
region is 1 to 4 inches. However, actual snow amounts could be
much higher depending on very small changes both in temperature
and in the track of the narrow band of heavy precipitation.

Likewise we are studying the possibility that Prince of Wales
Island, Wrangell, and Petersburg could also see accumulating snow
from this event, with 4 inches or more possible. There are
scenarios where Ketchikan and the southern Inner Channels could
receive well over 6 inches of snow and others where it could see
little if any. Please monitor NOAA weather radio,
weather.gov/Juneau, and local media for important weather updates
on this winter event.