Winter Weather Advisory 55, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Mon Mar 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A busy weather pattern will evolve over the next week with several
strong systems moving rapidly from east to west over Northern
Alaska through next weekend. Light snow currently moving into the
Interior and North Slope tonight and Tuesday while a potent storm
takes aim at the West Coast Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night
and then pushes into the Western Interior on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 22/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
Model spread is minimal through mid week and remains reasonable
into the end of the week, however large differences creep into the
models by next weekend on track and strength of synoptic scale
features.

Aloft at 500 mb, the long wave pattern consists of a broad area of
low pressure north of Alaska while a broad area of high pressure
remains over southern Alaska which is producing zonal flow over
much of Northern Alsaka and will produce several strong
shortwaves that will impact Alaska over the next several days.

The first short wave extends south and east from a weak upper
level low over the Southern Chukchi Sea extends over the Western
North Slope and is pushing into the Western Interior at this time.
A weak upper level ridge currently over the Central and Eastern
Interior will continue to retreat to the east into Canada Tuesday
as the upper level trough pushes into the Central Interior. This
shortwave will bring light snow, generally in the 1 to 2 inches
range over much of the Interior tonight and into Tuesday night.

A second strong shortwave pushes east out of the Bering Sea and
onto the West Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday and will be the
focus for a significant winter storm pushing onto the West Coast
Tuesday and the Western Interior on Wednesday. A third strong
shortwave pushes south and east of the Bering Sea over south
Central Alaska on Friday night and Saturday and a fourth strong
shortwave pushes east into Western Alaska on Sunday night and
Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Mostly clear skies are this evening much of the Central and Eastern
Interior will give way for clouds and light snow as a weak front
approaches from the west. Cloud cover and chances for snow will
increase tonight and Tuesday as a front moves east over the area.
This system will bring less than one inch of snow as it quickly
moves over the area. A second and stronger system will push into
the Central Interior on Wednesday and the Eastern Interior on
Thursday. This system will bring another round of accumulating
snow to the Interior along with warmer temperatures. At this
point, there is still some model uncertainty with the details of
this system as it moves to the area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Clouds and light snow continue to increase over the North Slope as
a weak frontal system moves through the area. Southerly gap winds
through the Brooks Range passes will diminish this evening.
today. Snow accumulation with this system will be less than one
inch and will remain mostly confined to the eastern Brooks Range.
Winds will increase for the Chukchi Sea coast areas beginning
Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong front will bring periods of heavy snow and strong winds
producing blizzard conditions for much of the West Coast beginning
Tuesday morning for St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait and
Tuesday afternoon for much of the West Coast from the Seward
Peninsula south. Blizzard warnings have been issued for these
areas. Conditions will deteriorate through the day with Blizzard
Warnings Issued for areas north of the Seward Peninsula Tuesday
afternoon and evening through Wednesday. Wind gusts to around 70
mph are expected on St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait while
wind gusts to 50 mph are expected for the rest of the coast
Tuesday and into Wednesday. Falling snow combined with the strong
winds will produce blizzard conditions at times for much of the
West Coast. Conditions improve on Wednesday along the West Coast
but snow and blowing snow is expected in the Western Interior on
Wednesday where Winter Storm Watches have been issued for
Wednesday. As the the low front pushes into the Western Interior
Wednesday and Wednesday night, significant differences appear in
the models on the track and strength which will produce large
differences on the amount of snow and where the heaviest snowfall
is expected in the Western Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...
The active and progressive weather pattern is expected to
continue through the rest of the week and into early next week
with another strong storm system expected to push onto the West
Coast Sunday night and Monday and into the Interior Monday and
Tuesday..SYNOPSIS...

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ208-AKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

CCC MAR 21