Winter Weather Advisory 49, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
406 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A 1004 mb low 100 NM north of Utqiagvik will move north tonight.
An occluded front stretching from that low to Barter Island to
Denali will move to Old Crow to Denali by 3am Wed, to Inuvik to a
1004 mb low near Ft Yukon to Denali by 3pm Wed, then as a 1005 mb
low near Inuvik by 3am Thu with the front from Inuvik to Isabell
Pass. This is causing snow, blowing snow and southwest winds
gusting to 30 mph with brief low visibility from Utqiagvik east
that will taper off by this evening. Light snow is occuring along
the front south of the Brooks Range. West winds gusting to 40 mph
and blowing snow will develop near Barter Island Wed night as the
low develops near Inuvik.

Snow along the front will become more enhanced after late tonight
and Wed as a low in the Gulf of Alaska moves north, then deepens
over Prince William Sound on Wed. This low will feed moisture up
over the front late tonight through Wed night. The snow will
linger over the SE Interior into Thu and possibly Fri. Expect
2 and 4 inches of snow is expected in the areas south and east of
Livengood, including Fairbanks. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph
developing Wednesday night will bring blowing and drifting of the
snow.

More significant snow fall of near 4-8 inches will occur along
the Alaska Range. The Alaska Range Passes and Alaska Highway east
of Dot Lake will see North winds of 40 mph with low visibility in
blowing snow Wed PM through Fri AM.

A 1006 mb low 60 NM west of Point Hope will move to 100 NM
northwest of Utqiagvik as a 1001 mb low by 3am Wed, then continue
moving north. An Arctic Cold front stretching from this low south
to St Lawrence Island will move to Wainwright to the Yukon Delta
by 3am Wed, then move east to the ALCAN Border to Isabell Pass by
Wed night and east of the ALCAN Border on Thu. This front is
causing snow squalls along the West Coast,. with brief low vsby
in the Bering Strait, that will taper off this evening as the
front moves inland. Expect Southwest winds 15-25 mph with this
front that will taper off tonight as it moves inland. This front
will bring colder air with it, with temps falling to well below
normal west of the front. Winds will increase over the Ern
INterior Wed PM as the Arctic Front moves over that area, and the
Low in Price William sound pulls the Arctic Air southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions along
through the weekend. Models have similar solutions aloft and with
precipitation through the weekend.

At the surface at 18Z, models verify several MB too weak on the
low NW of Utqiagvik at 18Z, several MB too weak on the high over
the Copper River Basin. This is causing stronger winds than models
indicate over the North Slope this afternoon, through Alaska
Range passes this evening. Models also initialize 5-10 mb too weak
on the low in the southern Gulf of Alaska, and this will likely
cause stronger North winds through Alaska Range Passes Wed PM as
the feature will be deeper than models indicate Wed.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ204-AKZ213-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB MAR 21