Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1202 PM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

SYNOPSIS...Snow on the Seward Peninsula and the Chukchi Sea
region will be tapering off. The stratus patchy fog in the Arctic
will be moving around with some clearing at times. The Interior
will be partly to mostly cloudy. Some gusty winds near the Alaska
Range Passes, and around Delta Junction with the Tanana Valley
Jet, developing tonight and continuing through Saturday. Expect
winds gusting to 40 to 45 mph in those areas. Temperatures across
the forecast area will be slowly rising.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 05/12Z solutions not showing much change from
previous runs. Blocky pattern will continue with troughing to the
west of the state, a low over the Gulf of Alaska, and ridging over
most of mainland Alaska. Will be using an equal blend of the
solutions to tweak the current database.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Blocky patter will persist with troughing to
the west anchored by a 485 dam low near Wrangel Island, and
riding pushing west over the state out of central Canada. A 492
dam low near Kodiak Island will weaken and be replaced by a 507
dam low that will move north near Kodiak Island and dissipate as
well. By Thursday night the ridging will continue to push west
over the state, while the troughing to the west will extend south
from a 486 dam low near Wrangel Island over Nunivak Island to Cold
Bay then southeast to a 522 dam low off the coast of Oregon. A
couple of shortwave caught in the south flow over the West Coast
and Western Interior will move north eventually moving north over
the Arctic as ridging build over the Eastern Arctic and Beaufort
Sea. The same general pattern will persist into next week. At 850
hpa...The -10C isotherm lies from the AlCan crossing to Fairbanks
to Huslia to Nunivak Island today and will continue to slide
north, except on the west coast and in the Southeast Interior, as
south flow persists over the state. On the West Coast the -10C
will be pushed inland as the upper level low moves south and the
trough expands, and in the Southeast Interior the pool of cold air
hold in place. By Friday morning the -10C isotherm will lie from
Utqiagvik to Dillingham with the pool of cold air stuck in the
Southeast Interior, and the -20C isotherm will be pushed south to
lie from Point Lay to Koyuk to Nunivak Island, then northwest.

Surface...Broad cyclonic flow over the state with a surface low
anchored in the Northeast Pacific this afternoon that will move
near Kodiak Island by Wednesday morning at 962 mb. A 990 mb low
has moved out of the high Arctic to 200 nm north of Wrangel Island
and will move to Wrangel Island by Wednesday morning as it slowly
weakens, then merges with the broad cyclonic flow over the state
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure will persist over the Upper
Yukon Flats, and the Upper Tanana Valley through Wednesday.
Wednesday night high pressure will build north into the Yukon
Territory, then west into the Eastern and Central Interior. The
low near Kodiak Island will move over the Island Wednesday night
as it weakens, then merges with a 976 mb low that will move out of
the Northeast Pacific to 200 nm southeast of Kodiak Island by
Thursday evening. Pressure gradient across the Alaska Range will
be squeezed at times as the lows move close to the Gulf Coast,
then relax as they move away, producing gusty south winds near the
passes. The Tanana Valley Jet will remain active with gusty
southeast winds to 40 mph around Delta Junction into the weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and fog chasing will be
the name of the game the next few days. No major systems moving
through the area. Do expect an increase in clouds as the week goes
on with some flurries or light snow, but not much accumulation,
if any. Temperatures steady with highs in the single digits below
and lows in the teens below for the coastal areas, with
temperatures 10 to 20 degrees colder in the plains, and 5 to 15
degrees warmer in the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow on the Seward Peninsula
and Chukchi Sea region tapering off with some clearing. Some light
snow possible again Thursday, but nothing significant. Winds
generally north to northeast at 5 to 20 mph along the coast with
light and variable winds inland. Temperatures steady tonight, then
cooling through Saturday as cold air pushes in from the northwest
over the coastal areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Partly cloudy for the most part
the next couple days. May see some high clouds move through, but
no precipitation expected. Temperatures slowly warming. Gusty
winds near the Alaska Range Passes and Delta Junction through
Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Some light snow over the West
Coast and Western Interior as a upper level trough will be over
the area and a pool of cold air will be pushing in over the coast.
not much expected to change in the Arctic with light winds,
stratus, and patchy fog. The Interior will be quiet as well, but
there is increasing potential for a snow evening on Monday/Tuesday
as a weather front moves north or northwest into the Eastern and
Central Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

SDB JAN 21