Winter Weather Advisory 113, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
201 PM AKST Wed Dec 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow across the Interior, including the Fairbanks area,
expected to continue through this afternoon before dissipating
tonight. Bitter cold temperatures continue across the North
Slope, with these colder temperatures filtering into the Interior
again beginning tomorrow night. Cold and quiet conditions out west
will end tomorrow night as a strong front brings southerly flow
across St. Lawrence Island north through the Bering Strait and
along the Chukchi Sea Coast through Saturday. Winter Storm Watches
are in effect for these areas due to the threat of strong winds
along with snow and blowing snow. A second, stronger winter storm
expected to more widely impact the West Coast and Western Interior
beginning on Sunday and lasting into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through the short term aloft and
at the surface. The upper level longwave trough situated across
northern Alaska will retreat to the east over the next couple of
days as strong ridging builds out west, with the ridge axis
situated over the West Coast by Friday morning. This will result
in northerly flow across the Interior, resulting in a cooling
trend for Friday and Saturday with 850 mb temperatures dipping to
the -25C to -30C range for the Interior and North Slope. This cold
airmass will slowly retreat east as warmer air pushes in from the
west on Saturday.

An upper level trough digging across the Bering Sea on Friday will
move to the West Coast by Friday night, bringing active weather
to the West Coast Thursday night through Friday night. The
associated front at the surface will bring strong winds, snow, and
blowing snow to areas such as St. Lawrence Island, Bering Strait,
Yukon Delta, and the Chukchi Sea Coast. This trough will then
lift north into the Chukchi Sea by Saturday night, resulting in
general westerly flow aloft going into the latter portions of the
weekend.

A strong closed low looks to dig into the Bering Sea behind this
initial trough, with a strong winter storm bringing potential
major impacts to the West Coast and Western Interior on Sunday.
Model run to run consistency remains okay through Sunday, with
larger discrepancies developing beyond Sunday night regarding this
feature.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow that developed overnight across the Interior is
expected to continue through this afternoon before dissipating
tonight. Up to an inch of snow is expected for the storm total
snow through this evening across the Central Interior, Tanana
Valley, and Yukon Flats. Skies will begin to clear tomorrow as
high pressure builds, resulting in colder temperatures settling
into the area going into the weekend, with lows falling to the
30s to 40s below zero through Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Temperatures remain cold, primarily in the 20s to 30s below zero
range this afternoon, with temperatures trending down into the
30s and 40 below zero expected over the next couple of days.
Northeast flow across the Chukchi Sea Coast will diminish tonight
as high pressure builds across the Arctic Plains through tomorrow.
Flow will quickly pick up out of the south and gusting 50-60 mph
along the Chukchi Sea Coast beginning tomorrow night as a weather
front approaches from the west. These strong winds will persist
into Saturday. A rapid warming trend will accompany this storm
beginning on Friday out west and pushing eastward across the North
Slope by Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Quiet weather conditions and cold temperatures tonight ahead of a
change in weather pattern that will bring strong southerly winds
and snow. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for St. Lawrence
Island, the Bering Strait Coast, and the Chukchi Sea Coast
beginning tomorrow night for strong winds gusting to 55 mph with
blizzard conditions possible in snow and blowing snow. These
conditions will last into Friday night for the Yukon Delta and
Bering Strait, while strong winds along the Chukchi Sea Coast
persist into Saturday. Attention will quickly shift to the major
winter storm that is set to impact the West Coast and Western
Interior beginning on Sunday, with an SPS in effect providing more
details. Stay tuned for further updates regarding this storm.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A powerful storm is
expected late this weekend, which may cause some coastal flood
issues, particularly for St. Lawrence Island due to the lack of
ice currently in this region. Coastal areas along the West Coast
from the Bering Strait south may see sea ice pushing up on the
beaches where there is limited shorefast ice and who are prone to
southeast winds.

Extended Days 4 to 7...The strong winter storm advertised over the
last several days is coming more into alignment on storm track as
the storm moves across the West Coast and Western Interior
beginning on Sunday. Another round of strong southerly flow will
be accompanied with this system along the coast, with widespread
snow across this region going into next week. An active pattern
looks to persist through the middle of the week as westerly flow
aloft persists with warmer temperatures across northern Alaska
and periods of strong winds through passes of the Alaska and
Brooks Ranges.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning for AKZ206.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

DEC 21