Winter Storm Watch 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

875 
WWAK41 PAFG 071224
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

AKZ201-080300-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0007.210308T0300Z-210309T0300Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0006.210308T0300Z-210309T0300Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
324 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor 
  visibilities which will create difficult travel conditions at 
  times. Visibility will be less than one quarter mile at times. 
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will cause areas of blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...6 PM today to 6 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for blowing snow means severe winter
weather conditions are expected. This will make travel very
difficult or impossible. The latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ202-080300-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0007.210308T0300Z-210309T0300Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0006.210308T0300Z-210309T0300Z/
Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
324 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor 
  visibilities which will create difficult travel conditions at 
  times. Visibility will be less than one quarter mile at times. 
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Northern Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...6 PM today to 6 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for blowing snow means severe winter
weather conditions are expected. This will make travel very
difficult or impossible. The latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ203-080300-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0043.210308T0600Z-210309T0600Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
324 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Plan on areas of poor visibilities
  which will create difficult travel conditions at times.
  Visibility will be less than one half mile at times. Winds 
  gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...9 PM today to 9 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
446 AM AKST Sat Mar 6 2021

SYNOPSIS...A strong front will move to the West Coast Sunday and
that is the primary focus for Hazardous weather with Blizzard and
Winter Storm Warnings and Watches in effect for Sunday and
Monday. A weak front will move to the West Coast today with some
light snow and up to 2 inches of accumulation. A decaying front in
the Interior will produce some flurries or a period of light snow
with no significant accumulation today.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 06/00Z solutions show good run to run continuity
through the short term. The lows are a millibar of two stronger in
the analysis than what models are showing, so expect winds to be a
bit stronger than what is currently coming out of the solutions,
and that would be consistent with what occurred with the last
strong system to move to the West Coast. Precipitation amounts are
similar in the solutions, but the timing is slightly different so
will use a blend of the solutions, but will kick them up so we get
definite snow with the system. With the winds expected to be a
bit stronger will lean toward the GFS and ECMWF and increase them
a couple knots as the system moves to the coast. The Hires ARW is
doing a pretty good job with the visibility along the front.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging persists over the eastern 1/3 of the
state today extending from a 524 dam high 700 nm north of
Deadhorse to a 517 dam high over Prince William Sound. Troughing
to the east of the ridge with a 510 dam low over the Northwest
Territories, and a 508 dam low over Banks Island. Broad troughing
to the west with a 475 dam low over the Siberian Coast and the
trough lying over the Western Chukchi Sea, Kotzebue Sound, and
Kodiak Island. As the trough is pulled north and west today and
tonight, ridging over the North Pacific will build north to the
Bering Strait today, and the Northwest Arctic Coast by Sunday
morning with 519 dam heights pushing over the Arctic nearshore
waters. As the amplitude of the ridge increases as it slides east
over the middle of the state and the Central Arctic broad deep
troughing will develop over the Bering Sea Sunday night. By Monday
afternoon the high amplitude ridging will extend from Prince
William Sound over the Eastern Interior and Arctic. A strong
trough will move over the Eastern Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and
Chukchi Sea as the low moves to 300 nm northwest of Wrangel Island
at 476 dam. At 850 hpa...Temperatures are cooling over the state
after warming to around -10C yesterday, and the -20C isotherm is
swinging around the upper level low over Chukotka and is pushing
east over the West Coast this morning. Temperatures over the
Central and Eastern Interior will continue to slowly cool to
around -15C today, then start warming as the next strong low will
push the -10C isotherm over the southwest coast tonight, and
across the Interior by Monday morning. As the front pushes inland
some pockets of temperatures around 0C will move into the Western
Interior Monday.

Surface...The weak front is moving into the West Coast this
morning as the low has moved over Wrangel Island. The front will
weaken as it moves inland today and tonight. A stronger front will
move to the West Coast Sunday as a 964 mb low moves into the
Northern Bering Sea, then north to Wrangel Island Sunday night.
Strong south winds will move to the coast in advance of the front
with snow moving into the area by Sunday afternoon in most areas.
As the front moves inland Monday it will weaken. Leeside troughing
developing north of the ranges Sunday night with tight pressure
gradient developing. Strong gusty south winds will develop north
of the ranges and persist into Tuesday before the gradient
relaxes. High pressure continues to hang on over the Eastern
Interior with a 1008 mb high in the Upper Yukon Flats and a 1008
mb high in the Upper Tanana Valley. High pressure is also pushing
south over the Eastern Arctic coast from a 1035 mb high near the
North Pole. The high pressure will build to 1016 mb in the Upper
Tanana Valley, and a 1021 mb high will develop over the Middle
Koyukuk Basin by Sunday morning. Monday morning the high over the
Middle Koyukuk will slide back east over Beaver at 1029 mb, and
the high over the Upper Tanana will slide northeast into the
Central Yukon Territory at 1029 mb.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...High pressure has pushed south
over the Eastern coast with clearing skies as the trough that was
over the area has weakened and is pulling to the northwest. As a
strong low moves north across Chukotka a weather front will move
to the Northwest Arctic Coast Sunday night. In advance of the
front a band of strong winds will produce blowing snow and poor
visibility Sunday night from Wainwright west. Winds will be
variable to 10 mph for most areas today. Temperatures slightly
cooler than the last couple days.

West Coast and Western Interior...A weak front will bring some
light snow today, mainly south of Kotzebue Sound. No significant
accumulation is expected. The front will move inland and slowly
weaken and dissipate. Winds east to south today for most areas at
5 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds will increase from the southwest
tonight to 10 to 25 mph, then during the day Sunday to south at 25
to 40 mph gusting to 60 mph in some areas. Blizzard and Winter
Storm Warnings have been issued for all the coastal areas
including St Lawrence Island, and a Winter Storm Watch is in
effect for the Upper Kobuk and Noatak Region as east winds are
expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph gusting to 50 mph.Blowing and
drifting snow will make travel very difficult Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will cool some today along the coast from Norton
Sound north as cold air wraps around the low over Chukotka.
Temperatures warming Sunday as warm air in advance of the front is
pushed north to the Arctic Coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...Patchy clouds with some flurries
or light snow as a decaying weather front moves east across the
area. No significant snow is expected. Partly cloudy for most
areas tonight. Winds generally light and variable. Winds will be
increasing near the Alaska Range Passed Sunday night with gusts to
around 60 mph possible. Temperatures will be slightly cooler the
next couple days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A strong front on the West
Coast Monday will move slowly across the state with increasing
chances for snow in the Interior Tuesday night through Wednesday. A
weaker front will move to the coast Tuesday with the southern half
dissipating as it moves into the Interior, and the northern half
moving northeast into the Arctic spreading light snow to the area
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ212.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ217.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

SDB MAR 21