Winter Storm Watch 31, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow continues to dissipate across the Interior and Alaska Range
this afternoon, with clearing conditions tonight. Blizzard
conditions redeveloped across the eastern Beaufort Sea Coast this
morning and is expected to persist through tomorrow morning. Quiet
weather out west will transition to active weather starting
tomorrow morning and lasting into next week, with a mixed bag of
precipitation possibilities, especially from the Seward Peninsula
south. Heavy snow and gusty winds looks to push into the Interior
on Sunday and last into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels, the strong Pacific ridge will build across
the Bering Sea and the West Coast going into Friday morning. A
persistent closed low east of Demarcation Point will get pushed to
the east due to the building ridge, with remnants of this trough
remaining in the high Arctic by Friday night. A trough will dig
across the Bering Sea late Saturday and weaken the ridge as the
trough rotates to the West Coast by Sunday morning and push
eastward going into Sunday night. Models are having some trouble
agreeing on how this trough will evolve going into early next
week, but all models agree that a major winter storm will develop
and impact northern Alaska throughout the weekend.

At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the
Interior, resulting in the dissipation of a weather front that
brought snow across the Interior over the last 12-24 hours. A
weather front will move north to the Yukon Delta and Lower Yukon
Valley by tomorrow morning, bringing a mixed bag of precipitation
across that area through tomorrow night. This front will precede a
much more intense weather front associated with a 965 mb surface
low that will develop in the Bering Sea on Saturday. This surface
low will track north into the Chukchi Sea by Sunday morning,
resulting in major winter weather impacts across northern Alaska
going into early next week. Due to the uncertainty aloft regarding
the trough movement beyond Sunday, the surface low evolvement
becomes more uncertain going into Monday once reaching the Chukchi
Sea. However, confidence remains good on the areas that will be
most impacted over the weekend with this winter storm system.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow will continue to taper off across the southern Interior and
the Alaska Range this evening. Clearing skies tonight will allow
temperatures to dip into the 10s below zero and hover around those
temperatures before a big warming trend going into Sunday. Light
snow is expected to develop again on Saturday as remnants of a
weather front reach the Interior and persist into Sunday with 1 to
2 inches of accumulation. At that point, heavier snow will
develop as a strong weather front pushes in from the west on
Sunday morning. This front will bring the potential for
substantial amounts of snow that could exceed one foot in the
Fairbanks area going into early next week. Westerly winds are
expected to develop Sunday afternoon, resulting in the possibility
of blowing snow issues going into Monday. Additionally, a slight
chance of freezing rain is possible to develop after the heaviest
snow has fallen by late Sunday night, but confidence in that
scenario occurring still remains low due to current model
uncertainty. Expect abnormally warm temperatures to develop on
Sunday and persist into the middle of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The eastern Beaufort Sea Coast continues to have blizzard issues
this afternoon, with these conditions persisting through tomorrow
morning. At that point, winds will dissipate as the persistent
surface low in the northern Beaufort Sea dissipates going into the
weekend. A strong weather front will reach the western Arctic
Coast by Saturday night, resulting in heavy snow, strong easterly
winds, and significant blowing snow issues going into Monday.
Areas west of Utqiagvik should expect to see anywhere from 6 to 9
inches of snow and winds gusting to 55 mph on Sunday. Warmer
temperatures will push in from the south with this system, with
areas along the Arctic Coast near zero and areas south reaching
the teens above going into Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Active weather will return to the region beginning tomorrow, as a
weather front will bring snow, freezing rain, and rain to the
Yukon Delta and Lower Yukon Valley. Winter Weather Advisories are
in effect for these areas for the freezing rain threat through
Friday night. Areas further inland could see up to 5 inches of
snow accumulation with this system. A more significant winter
storm will develop in the Bering Sea on Saturday, with impacts
along the West Coast beginning late Saturday night. Warmer air in
place by that point will keep mainly rainy conditions for the
Lower Yukon Valley and Yukon Delta, with mixed precipitation
reaching as far north as the Seward Peninsula with this storm by
Sunday morning. Areas further north and inland will remain as
mostly snow, and will see significant accumulations ranging from
8 to 14 inches of snow from the Chukchi Sea Coast east through the
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys through Sunday night. Very warm
temperatures in the 20s and 30s will remain in place, especially
from the Seward Peninsula south going into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The storm system arriving
Saturday night may push water through cracks in the ice along
most of the West Coast on Sunday.

Extended Forecast of Days 4 Through 7...Models are in better
agreement on the winter storm set to impact northern Alaska
throughout the weekend. See SPS's for each area of northern Alaska
for more details. Continued active weather will persist through
the middle of next week, as model guidance hinting at another
winter storm in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame that could bring
more heavy precipitation and strong winds to a large portion of
northern Alaska.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ221-AKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240.
&&

DEC 21