Winter Storm Watch 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
137 PM AKDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Spring is now in full swing across the Northland as a very strong
and anomalous upper level ridge builds over the state. A strong
warm front is pushing across the West Coast up to the Western
Arctic Coast with strong southerly winds and some localized
blowing snow. The only region of precipitation is across the
northern Norton Sound area where some low status and light snow
showers are occurring. Even warmer conditions are anticipated
Sunday with widespread mid 50s across the Interior. A cold front
will sweep across the North Slope and Eastern Interior on Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A dominant 570 dam upper level ridge is building over the state,
and this is resulting in above average temps and dry weather
across the Mainland. A trough is pushing across Eastern Siberia
which is supporting a strong warm front over the West Coast. 850
hpa temps are climbing above freezing.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Beautiful weather will dominate through Monday as a strong upper
level ridge holds over the area. Sunday will be the warmest day as
temps near 60 for highs across parts of the lower elevation
Interior. Monday is slightly cooler, with a big drop in temps on
Tuesday as a front moves through from the North Slope. This cold
front will also bring rain/snow chances mainly over the Fortymile
Uplands, but a brief shot can't be ruled out elsewhere as this
strong cold front pushes southeast.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong southerly winds will diminish through this evening as a
strong warm front crosses into the Arctic. The gradient will flip
around from the north Sunday and increase dramatically on Monday
as winds increase to gale force by Monday night along the coastal
waters and exposed coasts. Otherwise, dry weather dominates into
next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A strong warm front over the West Arctic will remain in place then
weaken Sunday evening. Blowing snow will continue along the Capes
but overall blowing snow has been limited, likely due to a
combination of warm temps and crusted over snow surfaces. A strong
cold front will move across the North Slope Mon and Mon night,
bringing snow and blowing snow threats, especially over the
eastern half of the Slope as strong northwest winds move across
the area, peaking east of Prudhoe Bay where a bit of Bernoulli
enhancement will occur.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended forecast Tuesday night, there will be a
very strong 570+ dam ridge over the Bering Strait and Eastern
Siberia with a trough moving across the ALCAN into the Yukon. Dry
weather will be developing behind the associated cold front over
the Eastern Interior, and eventually the ridge will become
dominant over the state once again beginning Wednesday and lasting
into the weekend, with warming temps and continued dry weather,
although a few weak fronts will track over the North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warm weather will persist. Otherwise none with snow
covered surfaces.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

AHSENMACHER APR 21