Wind Chill Advisory 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

665 
WWAK43 PAFG 161240
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 AM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021


AKZ218-161345-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-210217T0000Z/
Southeastern Brooks Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp, 
and Iniakuk Lake
340 AM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Snow will move into the Interior tonight and tomorrow with
generally 1 to 3 inches expected from Galena to Fairbanks and
north to the Yukon River through Tuesday night. Another wave of
snow will move into the Western Interior on Wednesday and progress
eastward. Visibility reductions in blowing snow and with
northeasterly winds continue through the Bering Strait and for St.
Lawrence Island. The North Slope will remain cold with low stratus
and fog at times along the coast, and stratus and flurries inland
near the Brooks Range through tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft...At 500mb, a trough from a 475 dam low anchored over the
Canadian Archipelago extends to just south of the Brooks Range
with another 513 dam low anchored near Point Lay. This feature
pushes south today and tonight and is absorbed into westerly zonal
flow over most of northern Alaska. Tomorrow, another 496 dam
closed low associated with the parent low over the Canadian
Archipelago dives south to about 100 nautical miles north of
Utqiagvik by Tuesday afternoon. From here, models disagree on
where this feature will go. Among the 12z models, the GFS and the
NAM leave it in place near Utqiagvik while the ECMWF brings it
east to near Banks Island by Thursday afternoon. The Canadian
takes an in between track and leaves it north of Kaktovik. At this
time we prefer the GFS and NAM solution due to persistent and
deeper than initialized troughing over the west coast favoring the
low to drop southward into this feature. The impact of this is a
slower moving band of snow moving from the Western Interior east
through the Interior on Thursday and Friday. Elsewhere, a 504 dam
low currently near Atka will slowly move east ushering moist,
southwest flow into the Interior overnight tonight before moving
to near Kodiak by Thursday morning and transitioning the Central &
Eastern Interior to drier, more southerly flow. Models are in
good agreement on this. A 526 dam high and associated ridge
centered near Mayo that had been providing clear conditions over
most of the Interior will slide east as the southwest flow
prevails overnight.

At 850mb, the -20 C isotherm currently lies east to west across
the northern Brooks Range and will remain there through the short
term. It will then push south first over the West Coast and then
over the Central and Eastern Interior by the end of the work week.
The -30 C isotherm is expected to encroach on the North Slope and
Brooks Range by the weekend.

Surface...Models remain 2-4mb to low on a surface high located
near Carmacks. This high will slowly move east but strengthen as
it goes, allowing east winds through channeled areas of the
Eastern Interior to continue through Thursday, likely above what
guidance shows. We will bump up winds through areas like Delta
Junction and Eagle to account for the enhanced pressure gradient.
A surface low beneath the vertically stacked upper level low near
Atka is also deeper than models initialize, so we will bump up
winds through the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island to account
for the increased gradient as well as what is currently occuring.
As upper level flow turns more southerly tomorrow afternoon, a
stronger pressure gradient will set up across the Alaska Range,
leading to stronger and more widespread southerly gap winds.

Central & Eastern Interior...Snow moving in overnight tonight will
persist through tomorrow. Expect snow from the Alaska Range north
to the Yukon River and east to Central tonight before southerly
flow through the Alaska Range slides the snow band north of
Fairbanks tomorrow night. Fairbanks can expect 1-2 inches with
this system. A second wave of snow will traverse the Interior from
south of the Brooks Range to west of Tok on Thursday, bringing
additional light snow accumulations. Southerly gap winds through
Alaska Range passes will pick up tonight and further increase
tomorrow night, though look to remain below advisory levels at
this time. Temperatures will moderate this evening with the return
of cloud cover. Temperatures will warm again on Wednesday with a
stronger southerly push and reach the mid teens in many areas east
of Nenana.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Stratus and flurries inland of the
coast and up against the Brooks Range will continue through
tomorrow. Clear areas along the Arctic coast will stay in the 30s
below zero until a shortwave pushes more clouds and stratus to
the coast overnight and into tomorrow, bringing warmer
temperatures. Expect highs in the teens below from Utqiagvik west
and 20s below from Utqiagvik east through Thursday. Lows will cool
gradually through Thursday and be mostly in the 30s below with the
coldest temperatures near 40 below east of Nuiqsut and in the
plains.

West Coast and Western Interior...Light snow from Unalakleet south
will persist near the coast through Wednesday and through
Thursday for Interior areas south of Shungnak. Areas north and
west of this line will remain mostly clear. Temperatures will
cool through the week. Gale force winds are expected to continue
through the Bering Strait and at Gambell through Wednesday, with
visibility dropping as low as 1/2 mile at times in blowing snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 Through 7...Light snow will continue over
many areas of the Central and Eastern Interior though Thursday and
Friday. Beyond this, below normal temperatures are expected for
most of northern Alaska from the weekend into early next week as a
cold Arctic trough digs south over the area.

&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
&&

CHRIEST FEB 21