Wind Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

235 
WWAK73 PAFG 091528
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
628 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

AKZ226-092000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210109T2000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
628 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near Isabel Pass.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM AKST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

146 
WWAK73 PAFG 091932
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1032 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

AKZ226-092045-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210109T2000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1032 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have died down across the area.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
419 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The southerly flow festival is well underway across the Interior as
nearly all the "cold air" in the Northern Hemisphere is stuck in
Siberia. A trough aloft remains over the West Coast and this
continues to support the only precipitation in the northern half of
the Mainland north of the AK Range. More strong AK Range gap winds
will develop later today and tonight as a low cross the coastal
mountains and then the AK Range. As usual, this pattern will keep it
dry over the Interior with warm temps in windy and elevated
locations. Even locations with inversions will stay above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
The overall upper level and surface pattern remains the same as it
has for the past few days, with a semi-persistent arctic trough
over the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea and broad southerly flow
over the Interior. The Gulf of Alaska continues to remain active
with shortwave troughs ejecting north across the AK Range. Each
time this happens, gap winds increase through the AK Range.
Currently yet another low is moving inland along the Gulf Coast,
and this will cross the AK Range today and tonight, bringing
another burst of winds through the AK Range gaps as well as
tightening up the lee trough, thus increasing the Tanana Valley
Jet.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models remain in very good agreement with the
general synoptic pattern, and are now in much better agreement
with the smaller scale details as we move through the weekend. The
previous major discrepancy was timing and strength of the current
low in the Gulf of AK and the associated shortwave trough crossing
the AK Range today and Sat. There was even more discrepancy in the
fate of the western trough and how it phased with the
aforementioned Gulf trough. However, those details are mostly
worked out and there is not much discrepancy with this forecast.
Expect continued light snow accumulations over the West Coast into
the Arctic with periods of strong AK Range gap winds and warmer
than average temps for the Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Strong southerly flow aloft will dominate the weather over the
next few days. Another burst of strong AK Range gap winds, which
will also bring more warm air into the Interior, will develop
later today and tonight, lasting into early Saturday. This will
be in conjunction with an ejecting shortwave trough lifting north
from the Gulf of Alaska. Gap winds in Isabel and Windy Passes look
to reach into the 60+ range, but not much higher at this time.
Current thinking is a few gusts will reach into the 70 MPH range
in the typical areas around Fort Greely, but overall this does
not look like anything particularly strong. This will also keep an
active Tanana Valley Jet blasting through the normal areas from
Delta Junction to Nenana, as well as locations east of there.
Temps have blasted into the 20s to near thirty where this is
blowing, but inverted areas remain 25 degrees colder. This will
persist through the weekend as southerly flow aloft begins to turn
more southeasterly with ridging building in. Any snow threats
continue to look paltry and negligible with the next threat
developing Sunday night and Monday from the White Mountains north.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light snow will continue over parts of the Lower Yukon/YK Delta
into Norton and Kotzebue Sounds as another wave of energy moves
over the stationary front which has been in place the past few
days. An additonal 1-3" is possible from Kotzebue Sound northward
with less an inch of snow elsewhere. Another shortwave trough will
quickly traverse the region on Saturday bringing more light snow
chances before the front falls apart and the flow becomes more
northeasterly and offshore Saturday afternoon through the
remainder of the weekend. The pressure gradient really tightens
along he coast on Saturday evening and will reach gale force
sustained on Sunday from the north, with the strongest core of
winds over the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light snow will continue over the Northwest Arctic as a stalled
frontal zone remains in place. Additional snow accumulations will
be around 1-2". A trough of low pressure will pass over the
Eastern Arctic and tighten the gradient today and tonight, but
this will be very quick moving with a brief period of blustery
east winds before the trough moves offshore tonight. Expect a
brief period of possible blowing snow before winds go calm.
Otherwise, the weather will not be all that exciting with periods
of low stratus and fog.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning Monday, the assault of storms over the Gulf will keep in
place a southerly flow regime. This will continue to promote a
mostly dry pattern with temps near if not slightly above average
over much of the Mainland. The active storm pattern farther south
looks like a pretty normal pattern for a La Nina, which we are
currently under the influence of. No major pattern shifts look to
be developing through day 7-8 as the cold arctic air remains over
Siberia, keeping impacts rather minimal over the Mainland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ245.

&&

AHSENMACHER JAN 21