Small Craft Advisory 86, NWS Fairbanks, AK

512 
FZAK51 PAFG 161125
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-170215-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 990 mb low 200 nm N of Point Barrow will remain nearly
stationary through Wednesday. A series of weather fronts will move
east across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.

$$

PKZ225-170215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-170215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-170215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-170215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-170215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

016 
FZAK51 PAFG 162224
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-171415-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 990 mb low 200 nm N of Point Barrow will remain nearly
stationary through Wednesday. A series of weather fronts will move
east across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.

$$

PKZ225-171415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-171415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-171415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-171415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-171415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

102 
FZAK51 PAFG 171132
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-180215-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 993 mb low 400 nm N of Prudhoe Bay will remain in place through
Wednesday then move northeast into the high Arctic Thursday. A
series of weather fronts will move east across the Arctic coast
through Wednesday, then high pressure will build east from the
Chukchi Sea Thursday.

$$

PKZ225-180215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-180215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-180215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-180215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-180215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1059 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
We may as well admit that autumn is here, as the leaves are
already turning colors here in Fairbanks, and cold rain will be
here to stay for the next couple days as 1-2" of widespread
rainfall will impact the Interior and West Coast, with some light
snow over the Brooks Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
An anomalous for August 512 dam 500 hpa arctic low is anchoring
the upper level flow pattern over the Mainland, with this feature
centered just north of Point Barrow. There is a broad westerly
flow over the southern Interior. An occluded front associated with
a shortwave trough is moving east across the Eastern Interior,
which is bringing round number one of rainfall. A warm front over
the north Bering Sea is moving east toward the Norton Sound area,
and this will bring round number two of rainfall into Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain. Rain. More rain. This will be the main weather impact with
widespread 1-2" of rainfall over the Interior, although the lone
exception will be the Fortymile where much lower amounts will
fall. Blustery southwest winds will also be rather persistent as
lows move east across the Interior through Monday. Rain tapers off
from west to east Tuesday with showers persisting the longest
over the ALCAN. Expect temps to continue to remain below seasonal
norms.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rainfall will become moderate to briefly heavy at times as the
next low moves into Norton Sound this evening. This rain will
overspread the entire Interior to the Yukon Delta, and north to
the Seward Peninsula and Middle Yukon Valley. Another 1-1.75" of
rainfall is expected through Tuesday before northwest winds and
colder/drier air filters in.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Rain will push east across the east Arctic tonight and then exits
Monday afternoon. Arctic front will shift east too bringing in
colder air and a switch to mixed rain and snow showers. Snow
levels will be low enough for light accumulating snowfall to
impact the Brooks Range, with accumulating snow expected across
Atigun Pass, as well. Strong west winds will impact Point Barrow
and the western Arctic Coast, with some elevated surf bringing in
some rough surf action tonight and Monday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Wednesday night, there
will be a 517 dam 500 hpa arctic low finally shifting east and
into the Canadian Maritime. There will be a mobile shortwave
trough moving into the southwest Coast bringing more potential
rain. It will be briefly dry before that low out west shifts
inland, bringing more rainfall Thursday and Friday. Troughing will
remain in place heading into the weekend which should keep it
cooler pretty much everywhere, although there does look to be a
brief reprieve in rainfall, for at least the Mainland, Saturday
and Sunday. It still looks rather active over the NW Arctic,
however.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting rains will pretty much impact the entire Interior for the
next couple days, with the lone exception possibly being the
Fortymile as the west flow pattern will result in a dramatic
downslope drying from Eagle southward.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Interior rivers and streams from the White Mountains
southwest along the north slopes of the Alaska Range will rise
through at least midweek, including the Chena and Little Chena,
and Chatanika. However, no flooding is anticipated.

Streams draining from the Central and Western Alaska Range,
including Denali Park, will see rapid rises through Tuesday
evening, but there is currently no flooding anticipated.
Recreators, however, should anticipate rapid rises and fast moving
waters. There is also the possibility of mudslides/rockslides
across the Central Alaska Range and near Denali Park.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

AHSENMACHER AUG 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1101 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

AKZ205-206-161500-
Northwestern Brooks Range-Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Singiluk, Umiat, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass,
Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
1101 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Snow in the Brooks Range...

Snowfall accumulation of 5 inches is expected at Atigun Pass
through Tuesday with higher amounts to the east. Snow will fall at
lower elevations including Anaktuvuk Pass, but any accumulation
of snow will melt during the day.

Temperatures will be cooling in the Brooks Range with highs in the
mid 30s to mid 40s, and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The cooler
temperatures will hold on into Thursday.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1107 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

AKZ221>223-225-226-161500-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Denali-Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome,
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1107 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Heavy rains through Tuesday in the Interior...

Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will produce rising rivers, streams,
and creeks across the Interior with potential for mud slides in
steep terrain and wildfire burn areas.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain will persist over the White
mountains to along the north slopes of the Alaska Range,
including Denali Park. In addition, southwest winds will increase
to 10 to 20 mph with stronger winds to 35 mph above treeline.

Outdoor enthusiasts should pay close attention to their
surroundings as rivers and streams can rise rapidly as well as
increase in flow speed, causing local bank erosion. With the
rainy conditions and cooler temperatures, hypothermia can occur
quickly.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks, and for
the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.