Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 85, NWS Fairbanks, AK

August 15, 2021

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Aug 15, 2021, 3:08 AM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 15, 2021, 3:08 AM AKDT (11:08 UTC)
Expired
Aug 17, 2021, 3:32 AM AKDT
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted.

802 
FZAK51 PAFG 151108
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-160200-
308 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 985 mb low 350 nm NW of Point Barrow will push a series of
weather fronts east across the northern Chukchi Sea and Beaufort
Sea.

$$

PKZ225-160200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
308 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-160200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
308 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-160200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
308 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-160200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
308 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-160200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
308 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Aug 21
4 follow-up statements
399 
FZAK51 PAFG 152136
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-161415-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 985 mb low 350 nm NW of Point Barrow will push a series of
weather fronts east across the northern Chukchi Sea and Beaufort
Sea.

$$

PKZ225-161415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-161415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-161415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-161415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-161415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
136 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt becoming W. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21
512 
FZAK51 PAFG 161125
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-170215-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 990 mb low 200 nm N of Point Barrow will remain nearly
stationary through Wednesday. A series of weather fronts will move
east across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.

$$

PKZ225-170215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-170215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-170215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-170215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-170215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
325 AM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21
016 
FZAK51 PAFG 162224
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-171415-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 990 mb low 200 nm N of Point Barrow will remain nearly
stationary through Wednesday. A series of weather fronts will move
east across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.

$$

PKZ225-171415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-171415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-171415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-171415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-171415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
224 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Aug 21
102 
FZAK51 PAFG 171132
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-180215-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 993 mb low 400 nm N of Prudhoe Bay will remain in place through
Wednesday then move northeast into the high Arctic Thursday. A
series of weather fronts will move east across the Arctic coast
through Wednesday, then high pressure will build east from the
Chukchi Sea Thursday.

$$

PKZ225-180215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-180215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-180215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-180215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-180215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
332 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 15, 3:02 AM AKDT, 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 3:02 AM AKDT, 6 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.Synopsis...Rain across the forecast area the next couple days
with some area seeing 2 inches or more through Tuesday evening.
Heaviest rainfall is still expected from the White Mountains
southwest along the Central and Western Alaska Range. There is a
continued threat of mud slides in steep terrain and wildfire
areas, along with rising rivers, streams, and creeks that can
impact outdoor enthusiasts. Those in the backcountry should pay
close attention to their surroundings as rivers, streams, and
creeks can rise rapidly making them dangerous to cross.

&&

.Discussion...

Models...Not seeing much change run to run in the solutions. They
handle the short term will, then some rather significant timing
issues show up in the midrange and extended periods. 15/00Z
solutions are in good agreement for most of the forecast, though
they differ on the location of the heaviest precipitation. Models
continue to have difficulty with the zonal flow and progressive
pattern that will persist through the week. Like yesterday, will
be leaning toward the concensus QPF as it provides a broader area
of heavy precipitation. For the probabilities will be adjusting
them up. Moving into late Monday solutions differ on the location
of a low along the front and that will impact the location of the
heaviest precipitation. For now will be leaning more toward the
GFS and Canadian which keep the low a bit weaker and further
south.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...No significant change from the broad troughy
pattern that extends from a 513 dam low 200 nm north of Utqiagvik
over the southwest mainland. Zonal flow will continue as the
shortwaves move across the state. A weak transitory ridge has
moved over the Eastern Aleutians and will move over Southcentral
Alaska and the Gulf tonight. A trough extends from the low south
over the Central Brooks Range, then southwest over the Lower Yukon
Delta this morning and will move east through the day to lie from
Demarcation Point to the White Mountains then southwest. Another
trough extends southwest from the low in the Arctic to a 560 dam
low near 50N and the Dateline and will move over the West Coast
Monday as the low near the Aleutians moves over Nikolski. At 850
hpa...A pool of temperatures around 0C has moved over the
northeast Interior and will move northeast today. The 0C isotherm
will dig southwest over the state to lie from Demarcation Point to
Huslia to Gambell Monday morning, and Demarcation Point to Cape
Romanzof to St Matthew Island Tuesday morning.

Surface...A 987 mb low has moved to 300 nm north of Utqiagvik
this morning with a weather front extending south to Wainwright to
Selawik then southwest to Gambell. Weak high pressure that pushed
into the Central and Eastern Interior is hanging on over the
Southeast Interior this morning, but will continue to weaken and
be pushed south of the Alaska Range later today. The front will
move east and southeast to lie from Oliktok Point to Beaver to
Galena to a 1007 mb low in the Northern Bering Sea as the low in
the Arctic moves to 300 nm northwest of Utqiagvik. Monday morning
the low will be 200 nm north of Utqiagvik with the front lying
from Old Crow YT southwest to Bettles to a 1004 mb low near
southwest St Lawrence Island. Monday afternoon the low will be 200
nm northeast of Utqiagvik, while the front will lie from Old Crow
to a 1003 mb low near Arctic Village to a 1005 mb low near Huslia
to a 1004 mb low near Unalakleet, then southwest over Cape
Romanzof.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A low north of Utqiagvik will
continue to swing fronts across the area with rainy conditions
prevailing. Snow may mix in with the rain in the overnight and
morning hours, but no accumulation is expected along the coast or
in the plains. At higher elevations of the Brooks Range expect
some accumulations with the temperatures cooling. Atigun Pass
will see up to 5 inches of snow through Tuesday with higher
amounts to the east. High temperatures generally in the 40s with
lows in the 30s. Winds southwest to northwest 10 to 25 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Rain with rainfall amounts
ranging from around 0.1 inch in the lower Yukon Delta to 1.5
inches in the Nulato Hills. High temperatures in the 50s, with
lows in the 40s to around 50. South to west winds will prevail at
5 to 20 mph in the coastal areas with light and variable winds
inland. Elevated water along the coast peaking this morning will
fall slowly through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Rainy days through Tuesday with
around 2 inches of rain possible by Tuesday evening from the White
Mountains southwest to the Central and Western Alaska Range.
There is a continued threat of mud slides in steep terrain and
wildfire areas, along with rising rivers, streams, and creeks that
can impact outdoor enthusiasts. Those in the backcountry should
pay close attention to their surroundings as rivers, streams, and
creeks can rise rapidly making them dangerous to cross. Winds
southwest 5 to 15 mph through Monday. Above treeline winds 15 to
25 mph gusting around 35 mph. Temperatures cooler with highs
generally in the 50s, and lows in the 40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Zonal pattern will bring
cloudy and showery conditions to most of the forecast area with
brief periods of clearing skies.

&&

.Fire Weather...Elevated chance of wetting rain across the
Interior and in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley through Tuesday. Cooler
Temperatures with high Relative Humidity will continue through the
week. Southwest winds 5 to 20 mph gusting to 35 mph above
treeline.

&&

.Hydrology...Interior rivers and streams from the White Mountains
southwest along the north slopes of the Alaska Range will rise
this weekend. River and Streams draining from the Central and
Western Alaska Range, including Denali Park, will see significant
rises that push them to bankfull as rainfall of around 2 inches
will occur through Tuesday evening. There is a continued threat of
water backing up on rivers and streams along the West Coast this
morning with the elevated water and wave action from Norton Sound
north to the Chukchi Sea Coast, but no significant impacts are
expected. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

SDB AUG 21

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 2:50 AM AKDT, 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

AKZ221>223-225-226-160100-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Denali-Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome,
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
250 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Heavy rains through Tuesday in the Interior...

Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will produce rising rivers, streams,
and creeks across the interior with potential for mud slides in
steep terrain and wildfire burn areas.

A weather front will stall from the White mountains southwest
along the north slopes of the Alaska Range, including Denali Park
spreading heavy rains into those areas. In addition southwest
winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph with stronger winds to 35 mph
above treeline.

Outdoor enthusiasts should pay close attention to their
surroundings as rivers and streams can rise rapidly to bankfull
making them dangerous to cross. With the rainy conditions and
cooler temperatures hypothermia can occur quickly.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks, and for
the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.
Special weather statement, Aug 15, 2:53 AM AKDT, 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
253 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

AKZ205-206-160100-
Northwestern Brooks Range-Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Singiluk, Umiat, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass,
Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
253 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Snow in the Brooks Range...

A low pressure system in the Arctic will swing a series of fronts
across the area spreading snow into the Brooks Range.

Snowfall accumulation of 5 inches is expected at Atigun Pass
through Tuesday with higher amounts to the east. Snow will fall at
lower elevations including Anaktuvuk Pass, but any accumulation of
snow will melt during the day.

Temperatures will be cooling in the Brooks Range with highs in the
mid 30s to mid 40s, and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The cooler
temperatures will hold on into Thursday before warming a few
degrees.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 15, 1:36 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFG38 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.