Small Craft Advisory 84, NWS Fairbanks, AK

608 
FZAK51 PAFG 141106 CCA
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-150215-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong low west of Wrangel Island will move to 300 NM northwest
of Utqiagvik as a 988 mb low by 4am Sat, and to 200 NM north of 
Utqiagvik as a 986 mb low by 4am Sun.

$$

PKZ225-150215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-150215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-150215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-150215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-150215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
306 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

078 
FZAK51 PAFG 142127
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
127 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-151415-
127 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong low west of Wrangel Island will move to 300 NM northwest
of Utqiagvik as a 988 mb low, and to 200 NM north of Utqiagvik as
a 986 mb low by 4am Sun.

$$

PKZ225-151415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
127 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-151415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
127 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-151415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
127 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt becoming W. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-151415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
127 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-151415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
127 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
229 PM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The Mainland is in between lows as one departs into the Yukon and
another moves in across the Northwest Arctic for late Fri and this
weekend. This low will bring steady rain to the West Coast before
moving inland Sunday. More rain is expected for Monday as yet
another low moves into Norton Sound then moves into the Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a deep 519 dam 500 hpa arctic low centered over
Demarcation Point north of the eastern Arctic Coast. A broad
positive tilt trough is exiting toward the ALCAN from the
Interior. Another shortwave trough is kicking out toward Wrangel
Island and this will move into the NW Arctic tonight then the
Interior Sat night and Sunday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Showers will exit into the Yukon today as the upper trough shifts
east, but there will be more showers mainly over the Fortymile and
Eastern Alaska Range tomorrow, with a reprieve elsewhere from the
rain. The next front rolls into the Interior from west to east
late tomorrow night through Sunday, with widespread rainfall
continuing through Monday as a reinforcing surge of moisture moves
inland. Expect 0.5-1" across the Central Interior to the middle
Tanana Valley with lesser amounts toward the ALCAN.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain will move in tonight and will continue through Saturday
night, with increasing rain rates and southwesterly winds as the
front nears. Southwest winds at gale force will impact much of the
coast with these southwest winds bringing in elevated surf and
higher seas to Norton Sound and the Chukchi Coast. Water levels
look to peak Sat and Sat night with 1-2 feet above the normal high
tide. Behind the low expect winds to turn northwesterly Sat night
and Sun. Yet another low with more rainfall will move into Norton
Sound and the southwest Interior Sunday and Monday. Expect
widespread storm total rainfall of around 0.5-1.25" by Monday
afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A warm front will bring increasing rain to the North Slope and
Brooks Range beginning tonight over the western half with that
front slowly shifting east through Sunday night. Given the warming
aloft expect all rain as snow levels rise to 4000-5000 feet. A
cold front will move through the west coast Sunday night bringing
possible rain and snow showers. Some elevated surf is possible
around Utqiagvik Sat night through Sun night as west winds
increase to 25 mph, but nothing more than some potential minor
beach erosion is anticipated.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period on Monday night, there will be an
anomalous and strong arctic low anchoring the weather pattern over
the state, with broad upper troughing extending all the way into
the Pacific. The pattern looks like pretty classic August with
cooler weather, several rain chances, and no significant signs of
any change overall through day 7.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier weather for the Mainland tomorrow, but yet another front
moves in with rain Sunday through Tuesday. Wetting rains will
impact the much drier Fort Yukon area, too, Sunday and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall will move across the Mainland from west to
east beginning tonight and lasting through Monday as two fronts
bring widespread moisture. Expecting 0.5-1.25" rainfall pretty
much everywhere although lower amounts for the Yukon Flats and
toward the ALCAN, by Monday evening. No flooding is anticipated
however, but there will likely be quick rises on mountain streams
in the Western Brooks Range and across the Interior higher
terrain.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-
PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

AHSENMACHER AUG 21