Small Craft Advisory 76, NWS Fairbanks, AK

311 
FZAK52 PAFG 102147
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
147 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-111600-
147 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front stretching from Point Hope west will move south 
to the Bering Strait by 4AM Wednesday, and to the Yukon Delta by 
4AM Thursday.

$$

PKZ200-111600-
Norton Sound-
147 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-111600-
Dall Point to Wales-
147 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-111600-
Kotzebue Sound-
147 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-111600-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
147 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

985 
FZAK52 PAFG 110809 AAA
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1209 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Updates zone 200

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ299-111615-
1209 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front stretching from Point Hope west will move south 
to the Bering Strait by 4AM Wednesday, and to the Yukon Delta by 
4AM Thursday.

$$

PKZ200-111615-
Norton Sound-
1209 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-111615-
Dall Point to Wales-
1209 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding.  
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-111615-
Kotzebue Sound-
1209 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-111615-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
1209 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

843 
FZAK52 PAFG 111308
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
508 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-120215-
508 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front along the West Coast of Alaska will move inland
tonight. A weather front will move east across the Chukchi Sea on
Fri. 

$$

PKZ200-120215-
Norton Sound-
508 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding.
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-120215-
Dall Point to Wales-
508 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-120215-
Kotzebue Sound-
508 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt becoming NW 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-120215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
508 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt becoming NW 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

217 
FZAK52 PAFG 112210
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
210 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-121415-
210 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weak ridge of high pressure over the eastern Bering Sea will
drift southeast to the Yukon Delta by Friday. A weather front 
will move east across the Chukchi Sea on Fri.

$$

PKZ200-121415-
Norton Sound-
210 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-121415-
Dall Point to Wales-
210 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-121415-
Kotzebue Sound-
210 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-121415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
210 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1255 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Looking out the window from our office at UAF, and it is pretty
gray and gloomy out. It may be enhanced by the fact this
forecaster is on a double after a midshift. Anyways...rain is
still falling this afternoon over much of the Tanana Valley,
Fortymile Uplands, and White Mountains and west to the Lower
Yukon. Cooler and showery weather will then setup over the
Mainland for the next several days as a trough remains over the
Mainland, sending summer back into Canada and the lower 48.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a strong shortwave trough quickly moving east across the
Yukon, which was the same one which brought all the heavy rainfall
to the southern Interior. There is a large stretching deformation
zone on satellite imagery situated from Norton Sound all the way
to the parent wave in the Yukon. A powerful 140 knot jet streak is
crossing the Gulf of Alaska, so this is a pretty strong fall-like
pattern. Way up over the Arctic Ocean is a strong 519 dam arctic
trough digging southward. This will be a big player heading into
the later week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain is still falling over the Tanana Valley and Fortymile, as
well as over the White Mountains and west into the Central
Interior. Rain will mostly end over the southern Interior then
shift north into the Yukon Flats and Upper Koyukuk tonight and
early tomorrow. Expect widespread afternoon showers everywhere
else in the afternoon along with a stray thunderstorm possible
if there are enough cloud breaks, which likely will not occur. For
the higher terrain expect widespread areas of lower clouds and
fog, with breezy southwest winds tomorrow afternoon and overnight
as a low moves northeast across the Interior. Broad southwest flow
and clouds persist through Thursday, keeping it wet and cool, with
more rain from the Bering moving over the Eastern AK Range and
Fortymile Thu and Thu night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Showers over the Western Interior and Norton Sound will continue
south and east of the Seward Peninsula into tomorrow. Showers
will then expand in coverage on Tuesday afternoon especially over
the Western Interior and Lower Yukon. There may be enough
instability for an isolated thunderstorm over the Interior, as
well, Tuesday. Cooler air drops south from the arctic on Thursday,
possibly bringing some lows into the lower 30s. Showery weather
will persist over the Interior through Thursday. Otherwise, strong
north winds will persist through today then slowly taper off
through Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Mixed stratus and fog will persist over the North Slope with weak
onshore flow through Tuesday. A weather change comes as a large
arctic trough digs south tonight and brings increasing chances for
rain showers then turning to possible snow showers Wednesday and
Thursday. Some accumulating snow is possible over the higher
elevations of the Arctic Plain and Brooks Range with snow levels
of 1500 feet by Wednesday night. There may be snow showers down to
the deck over the west Arctic, as well, where 850 temps plummet to
-8C. On Thursday, the east arctic may see some slushy
 accumulations toward Atigun Pass to Galbraith Lake and possibly
 farther north along the Haul Rd.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period on Thursday, there will be a large
arctic trough draped over the North Slope with a trough axis
extending across the Mainland. There may be snow showers ongoing
over parts of the arctic coast, with rain showers over the
Mainland with persistent southwest flow. By Friday and Saturday,
temps may cool down even further over the Interior as the trough
axis shifts eastward, also bringing a brief reprieve to showers
over the Interior. More fronts barrage inland from the Bering Sea
Sunday and Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Stick a fork in it. Fire weather season is barely hanging on as
upper troughing and wet and cool weather has established itself
over the area. Rain will still remain elusive over the northern
Yukon Flats as the chances look slimmer today than it did
yesterday as the main front has stalled farther south and will
only make it to the central portion of the Yukon Flats. Otherwise,
shower chances will increase everywhere as the region gets into a
broad trough and convective showers form the next several days.
Besides an outside shot for a wet thunderstorm tomorrow and Wed,
nothing much else to say.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall totals have reached an inch to 1.5" across much of the
Tanana Valley and into the Fortymile. Expect rises on the Tanana
and Chena Rivers as well as other smaller bodies of water around
Fairbanks into the early parts of this week. We will continue to
monitor, but are not expecting any significant impacts, although
the Tanana at Fairbanks is expected to be close to action stage by
Tuesday or Wednesday. Otherwise, no other hydro issues of
concern.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

AHSENMACHER AUG 21