Small Craft Advisory 74, NWS Fairbanks, AK

623 
FZAK52 PAFG 072115
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
115 PM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-081415-
115 PM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure over St Lawrence Island will weaken tonight as a low
currently over the Pribilof Islands drifts east into Bristol Bay
on Sunday.

$$

PKZ200-081415-
Norton Sound-
115 PM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-081415-
Dall Point to Wales-
115 PM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-081415-
Kotzebue Sound-
115 PM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-081415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
115 PM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

853 
FZAK52 PAFG 081105
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 AM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-090215-
305 AM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure over St Lawrence Island will weaken tonight as a low
currently over the Pribilof Islands drifts east into Bristol Bay 
on Sun then moves into the Gulf of Alaska Mon.

$$

PKZ200-090215-
Norton Sound-
305 AM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-090215-
Dall Point to Wales-
305 AM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...N winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-090215-
Kotzebue Sound-
305 AM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-090215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
305 AM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy, wet, and cool will be the pattern for the foreseeable
future for Northern Alaska. High pressure is retracting back into
Canada, as troughs of low pressure overtake the state from the
Arctic and from the southwest, bringing on and off showers with
some pockets of heavy rain to areas south of the Brooks Range
through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A fairly complex conglomeration of weather systems over different
parts of the state - high pressure squeezing out of the Interior,
low pressure over the Seward Peninsula and in the Arctic, is
making for an unusual set-up, as boundaries from the south and
north are meeting and colliding in the Interior.

Given the complexity of the upper levels and the surface, models
for the most part in pretty decent agreement until Monday where
EC and Canadian look similar while the NAM and GFS look similar in
a different way. The discrepancy is mostly with the upper level
low over SE Alaska and where it will center and move to. For the
most part, models in agreement on longwave troughing from NE to SW
persisting over the state into next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Struggling to get out of the 60's today in comparison to 84 as a
high for example, in Fairbanks yesterday, is pretty telling of a
sudden and obvious pattern change. Isolated thunderstorms
surrounded Fairbanks this morning. Most in the Central Interior
have lost the lightning capability, but very isolated
thunderstorms through this evening is still possible. Isolated
thunderstorms expected in the Eastern and SE Interior this
afternoon and evening and on Saturday. Chances of wetting rains
will increase for much of the Interior for the weekend. Southerly
gap winds through the AK Range passes will increase on Sunday as
a low pressure slides east from Bristol Bay, which may chinook
some of the moisture over the AK Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A low centered over the Seward Peninsula is supporting rainy
conditions east to Bettles this evening and into tomorrow. A
stronger low entering Bristol Bay late Saturday will bring
precipitation to the Y-K Delta region, drift north to the Norton
Sound Sunday, before eventually moving eastward bringing rain to
the Western Interior late Sunday into Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Quiet for the most part north of the Brooks Range, with the
typical onshore flow of fog and low stratus along the immediate
coastline. A front swinging down from the high Arctic early Sunday
may bring isolated to scattered precipitation east of the NW
Arctic Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunderstorms in the Central and Eastern Interior today
and then shifting to only the Eastern Interior tomorrow, appear
to be the end of any thunderstorm threat, at least through the
near- term. Cloudy, cooler, and thus higher minimum RH values
will dominate much of the state, especially areas where fires are
ongoing. Increased chances of wetting rains will extend over the
Interior for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Slight rises on the Tanana and Chena Rivers and other smaller
bodies of water around Fairbanks into early next week. We will
continue to monitor, but not expecting any impacts as rainfall
won't be continuous. Otherwise, no other hydro issues of concern,
as rivers in the Kobuk and Noatak Valley's continue on the
downward trend after what felt like never-ending rain along the
West Coast recently.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.
&&

KS AUG 21