Small Craft Advisory 61, NWS Fairbanks, AK

437 
FZAK52 PAFG 272246
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-281815-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 983 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr will swing into the Chukchi Sea
Wednesday and remain there through Friday. A weather front along
the West Coast will move slowly inland through Thursday.

$$

PKZ200-281815-
Norton Sound-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 12 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-281815-
Dall Point to Wales-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-281815-
Kotzebue Sound-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-281815-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

719 
FZAK52 PAFG 281225
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
425 AM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-290230-
425 AM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 987 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr will move into the Chukchi Sea
Wednesday and weaken as it remains there through Friday. Strong
south to southwest flow developing through the Bering Strait and
into Norton Sound through tonight.

$$

PKZ200-290230-
Norton Sound-
425 AM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-290230-
Dall Point to Wales-
425 AM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-290230-
Kotzebue Sound-
425 AM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-290230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
425 AM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

860 
FZAK52 PAFG 282341
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 PM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-291800-
341 PM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 989 mb low in the western Chukchi Sea will remain in place over
the next few days. A weather front will stall across the West
Coast and Bristol Bay through Friday.

$$

PKZ200-291800-
Norton Sound-
341 PM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-291800-
Dall Point to Wales-
341 PM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft. Fog.
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-291800-
Kotzebue Sound-
341 PM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-291800-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
341 PM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

070 
FZAK52 PAFG 291203
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
403 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-300230-
403 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 992 mb low in the western Chukchi Sea will remain in place and
gradually weaken over the next few days. A weather front will 
stall across the West Coast and Bristol Bay with southwest winds 
diminishing today.

$$

PKZ200-300230-
Norton Sound-
403 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-300230-
Dall Point to Wales-
403 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-300230-
Kotzebue Sound-
403 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-300230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
403 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
314 PM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Rainy conditions are expected to persist for several days across
the West Coast and parts of the North Slope. Rainfall accumulations
will be significant along parts of the Seward Peninsula and
western Brooks Range. In addition to the rain, strong southwest
winds are expected to cause elevated surf and increase water
levels along the coast from the Bering Strait south. Showers will
gradually creep inland, reaching the central Interior this
evening, and encompassing most of the Eastern Interior Tuesday.
Cool, showery weather is expected to persist across much of the
forecast area through Wednesday, then a warming and drying trend
will commence Thursday across the Eastern Interior with a return
to high pressure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
The complex synoptic pattern can mostly be summarized by a
longwave trough spanning much of the Bering Sea, Alaska, and
northwestern Canada. The pattern is anchored by two prominent
height minima over Wrangel Island and the Gulf of Alaska,
respectively. A weak ridge remains in place across Southcentral
Alaska and the southeast Interior. Southwest to westerly flow
through the pattern will support a stream of moisture onto the
West Coast which will penetrate well east into the Interior. The
Wrangel Low will deepen and move south in the mid week, amplifying
the longwave trough in the Bering Sea. This will in turn
restrengthen the ridge and result in warming and drying across the
eastern Interior later in the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weather front is moving east across the North Slope this
afternoon supporting light rain and low stratus across much of the
area. East winds will briefly turn southerly overnight as a weak
high chases the front, but will swing back easterly as the next
front advances across the region Tuesday. Another round of rain is
expected with this next system which will persist into Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain, heavy at times is expected across the region. South and west
facing shores and mountain slopes will see the most rainfall,
locally up to 3 inches through Wednesday. While no flooding is yet
anticipated, river levels will certainly increase. In addition,
The heaviest rain will taper off late Wednesday but showers will
continue into the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Cloudy cumulus across the eastern Interior is beginning to give
way to increasing shower activity. As of 3 PM, showers are visible
on radar east and south of Fairbanks. Shower activity will
increaseovernight and continue to spread east. Showers will
persist through Wednesday. Much of the region can expect between
0.10 to 0.25 inches through Wednesday, however locally up to 0.75
inches is possible in the hills north and west of Fairbanks, as
well as north of Eagle. Southwest winds will pick up this
afternoon, with gusts up to 25 mph over hilltops.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Prolonged south to southwest winds across the eastern Bering Sea
will increase to 35 kt by Wednesday and cause increased wave
action along the Seward coast with 3 to 5 feet of surge above the
high water line by Thursday. Wave runup, elevated seas, and
potential high water on the Snake River could combine to cause
potential issues for Nome Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Heavy rain across much of Western Alaska, along with cloudy skies
and showery conditions in the east will limit fire weather over
the next couple of days. However, gusty SW winds are expected
across much of the state. By Thursday, ridging will begin to
rebuild over eastern Alaska, initiating a warming and drying
trend into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday are expected
across much of the West Coast, primarily the southern Seward coast
and the Western Brooks Range. Drainages out of the Southern Seward
Peninsula and Western Brooks Range will see significant rises in
water levels during the week. Soils will be saturated by mid week
with the potential for heavy rain to trigger rapid rises on
smaller creeks in the area. People living or recreating in these
areas should monitor local conditions and be prepared for rises on
local streams and rivers including the Snake, Niukluk, Buckland,
Kobuk, Noatak and Wulik Rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

COWMAN JUL 21