Small Craft Advisory 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

681 
FZAK52 PAFG 071134
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-080215-
334 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A high over the eastern Chukchi Sea will persist through Sat. A 
series of lows will move across the Aleutian Chain through Sat.

$$

PKZ200-080215-
Norton Sound-
334 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-080215-
Dall Point to Wales-
334 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-080215-
Kotzebue Sound-
334 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-080215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
334 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

May 21

464 
FZAK52 PAFG 072141
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
141 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-081400-
141 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure will persist over Chukotka and N of the Chukchi Sea.
Low pressure will persist over the Aleutians and Bering Sea with a
990 mb low near Sand Point moving to 100 nm NW of Nikolski Sat
afternoon, and over Nikolski Sun afternoon with a trough
developing over the West Coast.

$$

PKZ200-081400-
Norton Sound-
141 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-081400-
Dall Point to Wales-
141 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. N winds 25 kt near the Bering Strait. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. N winds 25 kt near the Bering Strait in 
the morning. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-081400-
Kotzebue Sound-
141 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-081400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
141 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

201 
FZAK52 PAFG 081319
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
519 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-090230-
519 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low pressure trough from the Yukon Delta east will persist
through tonight, then move inland Sun. A weather front in Bristol
Bay will move north to the YK Delta tonight, to the Bering Strait
on Sun, and to Point Hope on Mon. A second weather front will 
move north over Bristol Bay on Sun, and then north over the West 
Coast of Alaska Sun night and Mon. 

$$

PKZ200-090230-
Norton Sound-
519 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...W winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ210-090230-
Dall Point to Wales-
519 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. Vsby 1
NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing 
spray. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog.
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-090230-
Kotzebue Sound-
519 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 5 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-090230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
519 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt becoming N. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

May 21

127 
FZAK52 PAFG 082309
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
309 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-091415-
309 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low pressure trough centered over the southern Bering Sea will 
persist through tonight, before redeveloping southeast of St. Paul
Island tomorrow night. A weather front in Bristol Bay will move 
north to the YK Delta tonight, to the Bering Strait on Sunday, and
to Point Hope on Monday. A second weather front will move north 
over Bristol Bay on Sunday, and then north over the West Coast of 
Alaska Sunday night and Monday.

$$

PKZ200-091415-
Norton Sound-
309 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-091415-
Dall Point to Wales-
309 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-091415-
Kotzebue Sound-
309 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 5 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-091415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
309 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
325 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and breezy conditions expected by this afternoon across much
of the Mainland along with drier weather. Showers will be limited
to the AK Range. Expect more periods of fog and stratus along the
North Slope. A low will cross the AK Range late tonight into
Friday, bringing more rain showers along with higher elevation
snow showers, and possibly some thunder.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 550 dam blocking high centered over the Northwest
Arctic Borough and Chukchi Sea, a weakening upper trough over the
eastern Arctic, and an interior ridge over the Eastern Interior.
There is a multi-center upper low over the Gulf of Alaska. At the
surface is low pressure over the Gulf and a 1031 mb high over the
Arctic coast moving east toward Canadian waters.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Much drier today all around with increasing northeast winds late
this afternoon and evening, becoming rather gusty over the Dalton
Highway summits and over the White Mountains. Even in the lower
elevations expect gusty winds. ANy shower activity will stay over
the AK Range and the Fortymile Uplands.

Friday, things get rather interesting as a low crosses the AK
Range and tracks north, bringing rain showers and mixed snow over
higher terrain, along with the chance for thunder over the AK
Range and into the Tanana Valley, given the steering flow from the
south. There is high uncertainty with this system, but there is a
chance for all sorts of things including small hail and
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall in the afternoon, from
the AK Range to the White Mountains and across the Fortymile
Uplands. This compact system bears watching during the upcoming
day. Snow is possible farther north as the low tracks up toward
the Brooks Range. This low exits to the north of the Brooks Range
on Friday night with weak ridging building in behind it, although
chances for rain showers will continue toward the ALCAN.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Continued dry weather along the coast with periods of status over
the Capes and Saint Lawrence Island. There will be an increasing
pressure gradient so expect a bit more northeast winds today
especially this afternoon and into the overnight. Friday a low
will skirt to the east of the Lower Yukon but will bring a chance
of rain and snow showers before exiting Sat morning.

North Slope Brooks Range...
Fog and stratus will continue to persist for the next day with an
increasing easterly gradient. Easterly winds and possible blowing
snow will develop first over the Western Arctic coast later this
morning. How much is always dependent upon how crusted the snow
is, at this time of the year when the sun angle is high. Winds
continue to increase along the whole North Slope through Saturday
with increasing threats for blowing and drifting snow. A low will
also bring a chance for accumulating snow Sat, but the track is
highly uncertain at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Main fire weather concern today will be increasing northeast
winds this afternoon and evening, accompanied by min RH values in
the upper 20s over the Yukon Flats and Tanana Valley/Minto Flats.
Expect gusts as high as 25 mph in the valley and 35 mph over
higher terrain. On Friday, much uncertainty develops as a low
tracks north across the AK Range. There will be sufficient strong
forcing and instability for thunderstorms to form off the AK Range
and move north toward the White Mountains and across the
Fortymile Uplands. At this time, however, there are no critical
fire weather conditions anticipated through this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrology concerns at this time as the Yukon River
remains ice covered, while the smaller rivers and tributaries
across the Interior continue to breakup without major issues. As
breakup continues, river conditions can change rapidly, so stay
tuned for the latest updates and forecasts at www.weather.gov/afg
or www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

AHSENMACHER MAY 21